I’d say for Cornell it’s selective enough that I wouldn’t worry about a denial. When my older son was deferred by both his EA schools (MIT and Caltech) that was a message to him that he really had to pursue getting the two outside recommendations he’d procrastinated about asking for. (For a smart kid he could be really dumb - no one in school could really speak to his programming abilities or that he worked well with others despite being very shy.) In the end both those schools rejected him, but he got accepted by schools that were as selective.
Yesterday my D got to talking with a college freshman that graduated from our hs. He had a slightly lower gpa, one less ap course but a 34 on his act and applied to many of the same schools on my D’s list. Rejected from cornell, uva, vandy and duke. only acceptances were northeastern, miami, binghamton and richmond. Then, when he found out my D was applying ED to cornell, he was good enough to let her know that the other person from our school applying ED to cornell/cals is a legacy.
not a great day for my D.
Holistic admissions, my friend. As long as she understands and accepts that the odds aren’t in her favor and is happy with her list, she will be fine.
FWIW, my D’s friend was WLed at Cornell. She is a good student but even more “average” than my own “average” excellent kid:-) Several friends with much better stats were outright denied, including the Val. It ain’t over 'til the fat lady sings.
@quietdesperation hoo boy. Your kid is our kid. I am rooting for you.
@quietdesperation I have been reading your thread/journey with quite a bit of interest!
I am going through very similar experience with my D - both with having a D with similar stats, school choices and top choice changes etc. And yes my D’s list is still top heavy (for my liking) even now.
[This paragraph is about the reaches/far reaches].
Another similarity is you ‘tried’ to have some reasonable measure of acceptance chances based on past performance (acceptance) of people from her school with similar stats. I started with the same idea (hope)… but data as “1 of 7 and 2 of 11” turned out to have so much noise! I decided to go with much more bigger generalization - I found that “For the last 3-4 years, people from her school applying within the 50+% range stats(GPA and SAT/ACT) for this particular university, had about the average % chance of being accepted as the overall % admission rate of said University(give or take few % points)” This among other things (and on the bright side - re comment #181) means that one person “Rejected from cornell, uva, vandy and duke. only acceptances were northeastern…” means nothing for your D’s chances there.
Keep us posted!
@Lindagaf what’s emerged over the last couple of weeks is that u mich sits on fulcrum btw a happy and a disappointing outcome (as defined by my D). An ea admission there would take the edge off the process.
@oldbrookie your reply made me happy! thanks for your support!
@Percent99 I like your idea for data analysis but how can you tell what’s happened in the last 3-4 years? The data in our version of naviance is not time stamped and goes back 10 years. Anyhow, good luck to your D! Would love to root for her, hope you’ll consider starting your own thread.
@quietdesperation
I know you know that the comparing thing will drive you crazy!! But it’s almost impossible not to succumb to. Cornell is going to get multitudes of applications with scores and gpas that fit their profile. A point here or a tenth here doesn’t make much of a difference. Assume these kids are all in the same pile to start. Once there in that pile, the recs and essays come into play. Maybe the kid from last year had good recs but not glowing ones. There is a big read between the lines element to those. Maybe his essay was routine. Maybe your D has one of those glowing recs in her file. That’s worth more than the 1 ACT point he has on her.
Good Luck, my DD was your daughter 2 years ago. The challenging part is managing her emotions as results come in. Our first result was a straight reject from an early app to an Ivy. The sky was falling and no one was going to accept her. She ended up with 3 rejects, 4 waitlist, and 4 accepts. She had good options in the end and naviance nailed it. We always half-joked that UCB was her safety because Naviance showed that they took 40-45 from her HS every single year and she was top 15. Sure enough UCB accepted and gave her the Regents scholarship. She absolutely loves the school and is definitely challenged there. I’m rooting for Berkeley for your daughter as it is an incredible school.
thanks @livingproof , she submitted ucb tonight, I thought her essays very good. We visited over the summer, what a beautiful school! Unfortunately, the school hasn’t taken many applicants from our high school but we’ll see.
it’s cornell! She’ll be studying bio at their cals, saves about $15k/year over cas. In the end, honestly, it’s a little bittersweet, our baby goes off to school next sep 
Thanks you all for your time, wisdom and help!
Congratulations!
Congrats to you and your daughter! How nice to be done. Now, enjoys the holidays! 
How wonderful for your D! Congratulations!
Congrats to her!
Yes!!!
Congrats!! You are DONE!
CONGRATULATIONS!!!
Big congrats!
Congrats, have some ice cream, a shredding of the other apps party and enjoy the holidays
thanks for all the congratulations, this is an amazing, supportive community!
So my D disappeared into her lair yesterday after school, ate dinner with us and then up to her room for another couple of hours. Concerned there might be something wrong, we called her downstairs to see what was up.
what had she been doing all that time? Texting/face timing her friends? Posting on social media? No, it turns out she was researching medical schools. It never ends…