<p>Looking at the acceptances from my kid's school at UC's over the past few years, I would say that it is not a crapshoot at all; nor is it particularly subjective. UCLA is a little more unpredictable, but UCB will almost always accept top students into the College of Letters and Sciences, i.e., with the kinds of grades and SAT scores listed by the OP and "the most rigorous" course load, with not very much consideration of extracurricular stuff -- and it has a fairly high acceptance rate for a top-quality school (over 20%); UCSB accepts about 50% of applicants; Davis has also had a high acceptance rate, though this year it was down slightly (it is not the best choice for music performance of the UC's); UCSC accepts over 50%. This high rate is in large part because the matriculation rate is fairly low; the UCB Regents' Scholars from my kid's school all chose other schools (Brown, Oberlin, among others, and for a variety of "fit" reasons, including music performance opportunities).</p>