High need. Does he stand a chance?

We researched long and hard all spring, summer and part of fall of 2019 in attempting to establish our son’s college application list. We are middle income (not low middle, but middle middle) but have no savings as our business collapsed a couple years ago and Dad has 3 other children to support. Anyway, we did the best we could. Here we are with the ability to pay some (not 0 EFC), but not tons. We decided based on reading many places that ability to pay was only considered at the last moment with on the edge of rejection kids or waitlist kids to apply to need blind and need aware colleges that met 100% of need. He applied to only 2 not full need met. UMass Amherst our flagship was one. He applied EA or ED to 8 schools. He was deferred by 5 ( all but one need aware and one high reach) and rejected by 2 others. We have 17 left to hear from. Some are reaches, some are targets and one is a safety. He was accepted EA to UMass with fair FA (not great). I am now aware despite all of our research that need blind schools are truly need blind and that need aware schools may consider need well before when they admit to considering it.

Here are his stats
1460 SAT (one sitting)
3.75 UW / 4.05 W GPA
5s on all APs so far
Total of 7 (out of 8 allowed by school) taken
All other classes Honors
Good recommendations
Good (we think) essays
ADL Peerleader (original member chosen by faculty)
MA Attorney General at MA Boy’s State
Vice President MUN
3-4 Musicals or Plays per year
International Thespian Society Member
Tri-M Music Honor Society Member
Acts in Student and Independent Films
Baseball 3 seasons a year since 4 years old.
Other random stuff

Does he have a chance anywhere besides UMass? Very concerned since some (most) deferrals were from safety/target schools. We’d like him to have some choice. He’d prefer a smaller LAC. The waiting is making me crazy and the deferrals and rejections have me scared.

Thoughts?

Is UMass Amherst affordable?

What is his safety school, and what does the NPC give for estimated COA?

Edited to add: some need aware schools say they only look at need for the last X% of the class, but many/most don’t communicate additional details like that.

The reality is one will never really know the reason(s) for a denial, waitlist, or deferral. What program/major did he apply to (at schools where that is required)?

I’m not sure there’s enough information here to really answer. The fact that you say he has had most deferrals/rejections from safety/targets makes me wonder if these were true safeties/targets in terms of admit rates as well as his stats being in range. It may be this rather than being need aware that is the issue. Without knowing what schools these were or the ones you’re waiting to hear on, it’s hard to say.

@Mwfan1921 Yes, UMass is affordable if we really stretch. I read some MANY articles and posts about need aware and not caring until the very end. I agree you never really know, but you can speculate. Ugh. He’s applying as a Theatre (not BFA) major (with Poly Sci/Govt as his second) He plans to double major.

@SJ2727 According to Naviance they were safeties or targets based on his stats. The safeties he was at or above 90% for stats. For targets he was between 70% and 90% for stats. Reaches he was between 50% and 75% for stats. Schools: Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, Conn College, Trinity College, Wesleyan, Union, Northeastern, Holy Cross, Boston College, Tulane, Babson, Lafayette, Muhlenberg, Occidental, Pomona. We researched like mad people. I think I’m forgetting one.

Hm, that’s kind of what I thought might have happened. He might be have ranked safety/target/reach appropriately by stats, but you need to take admit rates into account too. A number of those schools have admit rates in the teens, or even single digits (like bowdoin). Those don’t make them matches- common wisdom on CC seems to be anything with admit rate below 20% should be classed as a reach, stats notwithstanding. That said, there are some on your list with notably higher admit rates, and he should stand a much better chance there.

Note that some colleges do not like to be used as “safeties” by “overqualified” applicants who are more likely to attend a more selective college. Hence they use “level of applicant’s interest” to determine if such an “overqualified” applicant is using them as a low choice “safety” (which tends to result in waitlist or rejection) versus an actual high choice. Such colleges should not be considered “safeties”.

Another possibility is that the desired major is oversubscribed at the college, so that applicants indicating that major face much greater competition. Also, if a performing arts major requires an audition, that is likely very important, so that stats alone cannot give a good prediction.

@SJ2727 He’s a 2nd tier legacy at Bowdoin so we gave that a shot. He loved Pomona and Wesleyan so we gave them a shot. They are obvious reaches. We tried to keep a bunch in the in the 25 to 40 percent acceptance range for just the reason you are stating. He was deferred at schools with admit rates in the 20s and 30s so that’s where I wonder about too much aid required. But I do, hear you.

@ucbalumnus I have heard that theory floated that he was "over qualified for some schools and hence the deferrals (some of them). We’ve taken that into consideration. I’m just scared that’s not the reason and its the aid and he’ll be rejected by other safeties and targets as well. In terms of his major most of them are not theatre heavy. None required auditions besides Conn College and Muhlenberg for a chance for a scholarship(have heard from neither yet). He did submit theatre supplements which often consisted of monologues, etc to all the colleges, but these should not make or break him according to how much college considers supplements.

AHHHH This is maddening. When I was accepted to Smith College in 1989 this was not so crazy. One visit, one interview, one essay and my stats where not as high as his. At least his SAT which exceeds mine by 200 pts.

With schools in this acceptance range these schools aren’t safeties.

Have you heard from Muhlenberg yet? I think among the set of schools in your post they have the highest acceptance rate. But, they don’t meet full need for most students…what does their NPC estimate for your COA?

@Mwfan1921 I didn’t say they were safeties. More like targets. We chose them because they had similar accept rates as my alma mater and he shines brighter than I did and he liked them. No word from Muhlenberg yet. NPC estimate is approximately the same cost as what UMass would be.

Union and Muhlenberg should be acceptances. Muhlenberg should also give great merit. Not sure on Union. All the other schools would be considered reaches.

Got it. It’s not uncommon to experience deferrals or denials from targets.

Good luck with the rest of the decisions. I know the waiting is stressful, as is paying the bill when it arrives.

A safety isn’t really a safety unless it is guaranteed to be affordable as well as being a guaranteed admit. Every year there are some ugly surprises with places that looked to be safe. His stats are good enough to have made him an automatic admit at a number of places, but possibly nowhere that he’d like better than U Mass.

Ok so I’m assuming from almost all of the comments I’m receiving so far is that it won’t be financial aid that will cause his rejections, but simply that he is not good enough. Painful to hear but thank you. :…(

Thank you. I spent lots of my Smith time at UMass so I know what you mean.

Look at it the other way: these schools turn down two-thirds to three-quarters of applicants. Unless he was above the 75th percentile stats wise at these schools, again, it’s not really so surprising he was not an admit. The fact that he was deferred, early, indicates to me it’s not aid that’s an issue. It’s how he stacks up against presumably many other applicants in a similar stats range to him, and what might differentiate him from them for holistic schools. The fact is that they still want to evaluate him against the RD pool.

@SJ2727 He was at 75% or 90% for 4 of his deferrals. But I get it. He’s nothing special. Messaged received. I asked for it. Thank you.

It’s the “average excellent” problem, bemoaned by many here. That doesn’t make it any easier.
Although that said - if he was that high stats wise at some of the deferrals then I agree with ucbalumnus that there might have been yield protection at play.

I think Naviance does students and families a disservice. There is just too much it doesn’t take into account. I think it gets even harder at small LACs because there are fewer spots. I’m also assuming UMass is your instate option? If so, you are geographically disadvantaged being from New England.

I’m sorry OP that your son isn’t having the decisions he hoped for. I hope the finances work out at some of these other schools so he has more options.

Sending hugs!

The other issue with admissions at small LACs is that recruited athletes consume a larger percentage of the admission spots than at larger schools.