I think Naviance does students and families a disservice. There is just too much it doesn’t take into account. I think it gets even harder at small LACs because there are fewer spots. I’m also assuming UMass is your instate option? If so, you are geographically disadvantaged being from New England.
I’m sorry OP that your son isn’t having the decisions he hoped for. I hope the finances work out at some of these other schools so he has more options.
Sending hugs!