Fair warning: faux modesty is irritating. Posting perfect scores and asking “do I have a chance” will drive even mild-mannered helpful types to want to make smart-alecky replies. I have erased at least 4 so far.
Be aware that every part of going to university in the UK requires you to be independent and resourceful. If you haven’t already read the website obsessively, I recommend that you do so now. Almost everything you need to know is there.
Have you picked a college?
Have you tried the sample HAT papers?
Oxford will not be interested in your GPA
HisPol is quite a small course- they take about 50 people / year. Applicants have been asked at interview if they would accept a place in History if it were offered instead of HisPol.
Do some homework on writing a Personal Statement (plenty of info online). Remember that the purpose of the essay is to demonstrate that you understand what the course is and that you are a good candidate for the course. Typically you reference substantive subject-related reading that you have done outside the classroom.
Keep an eye on the papers you are writing this spring - you will have to submit a piece of graded writing with your application, and as the deadline is Oct 15, you may not have something interesting to submit that early in the term in the autumn.
Oxford admissions is a series of hurdles. Once you clear one it becomes less important. Test scores (APs & HAT), LoR and PS are used to make the interview cut. Once at interview the playing field is essentially level (though I have heard of aptitude tests being a factor in the final deliberation). There is a lot of info on the interview online (check both YouTube and iTunes as well as UCAS & the Oxford site). As you may know, the interview is a cross between an oral exam and a tutorial. There is no correlation between how you think the interview went and the outcome: I have seen people come out in bits, certain that there was no hope, and get offers, and equally people who felt that they sailed through it, loved it, knew it was just right for them and not get an offer.
Be sure to figure out where you will take the HAT early- unless you live in one of a handful of cities, it can take a time. Your school can register to be a test center, but it’s a hassle and takes time. Obviously, you can also travel to a test center- but again, it’s a hassle and takes time.
Any other questions, feel free to come on back!