How close is Duke's NPC to the financial aid actually offered [in your experience]?

I ran Dukes NPC twice [August and November] and both times it showed:
Total cost of attendance - Institutional Grants/Aid = 7,800

My EFC is 9,800 so I am perfectly fine with something up to that [ or even slightly higher (10-11 K).]
What concerns me is websites like colleges.niche.com report “Net Price by Household Income for Duke at almost 16,000/y” for my bracket 49-75k usd annually. Granted I am at the very edge of that with 48,700 annual gross income (99% of it from W2 aka employment income) , so I might as well be considered in the lower bracket with corresponding Net price of 11,520.
If this is indeed the case is it reasonable to rely on the NPC and its 33% lower expected cost than the average for the bracket in which my income is at the very very top. [Additionally net price of 7,800 with EFC of 9,800 seems a bit too good to be true - has anyone been actually given such aid (with no scholarships) in the mix.

PS
This question is posted by the non-natively English speaking parent btw, so excuse any spelling or otherwise mistakes.

Does your family own a business or have assets out of the ordinary?

No business.
I do not know if this is “out of the ordinary” but ALL our assets are:
savings/checking 40-43K
equity primary residence - 62K
equity 2nd real estate [not rented so no income from there] 30K

And by all I mean all - no investments, no 401K, no Roth and regular IRA nothing else, no tuition/education plans

@Percent99 - I think you are releasing way too much personal info online!

Yes, you don’t have to list actual numbers here.

FAFSA looks at tax return income like AGI, income from working (W2), tax paid. That info can be imported into FAFSA from the tax return. Then assets like savings, checking account.

You get an asset protection amount of about $20,000, depending on age. If your savings are not in retirement accounts, then anything over that amount will add 5.6% to your FAFSA EFC.

A home that is in addition to a primary home would be considered an investment. So you would list that.

Many schools will require CSS profile in addition to FAFSA, I assume Duke does? They will calculated their own institutional EFC, which can be higher or lower than FAFSA EFC.

Nobody can tell you how much your final cost will be. If the numbers entered in NPC are correct, the estimate shoukd be pretty good.

You should get a financial aid award letter from them before you have to commit to a school.

Figure that you will have to cover at least the EFC. You can take a $5,500 loan and can work in summers and part time during the school year, and maybe your parents can pay some towards college from their savings.

Thanks @mommdc . I know CSS profile is more extensive as I filled it for a different school already. Good news to know that university’s in house family contribution calculation can lead to lower number [as opposed to only higher than EFC] !

Where can I find more info about stuff like:
“You get an asset protection amount of about $20,000, depending on age. If your savings are not in retirement accounts, then anything over that amount will add 5.6% to your FAFSA EFC.”

https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/sites/default/files/2017-18-efc-formula.pdf

This applies to FAFSA. There is an EFC formula.

See page 9, 10 in pdf above for EFC calculation worksheet and page 19 for asset protection allowance table

Only parent assets have asset protection allowance. Student assets are assessed at 20%.

Thanks again @mommdc. Indeed very useful link!
Have not grasped all the details and implications yet, but very useful to know, especially if one has the info before actually submitting [preferably years ahead] and willing to understand the consequences of financial decisions to EFC/FAFSA.

Just remember that schools that use CSS profile will have their own aid formulas, they are not basing their aid awards on just the FAFSA.