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<p>Yes, there are arguments. Those arguments are very bad, and the people making them should be made ashamed of doing so. Not because of their position, mind you, but because of the quality of their arguments. I have no issue with people thinking opposite to me, provided their arguments are built on a foundation of logic and fact. Skip one and try to sell fairy tales to high schoolers, and yes, I have a problem. Your initial posts in this thread failed entirely to account for the realities of legal hiring post-2007. That was a factual problem, and that’s why I came out against you. Ironically, the authors of the study in that article you cite make the very same mistake.</p>
<p>The first and most obviously jarring problem of the study is the premise. The idea behind the paper is “law grads tended to do better than just bachelor’s holders in the past, therefore they will do it in the future.” But there is a specific event not accounted for in that analysis: the crash. It’s just not the case that past events are predictive of future events after a major shift in the economy (with a special emphasis on its restructuring of the legal economy). And even ignoring major events, a study is only partially predictive if the past events are a good sample. </p>
<p>Did you wonder why the authors picked a 16 year period for the study? Well, I did. Turns out they skipped over the years just before then, the early 1990s, when the legal market was also contracting. Admittedly it is contracting far more today, but it would have been a lot harder to argue “law grads do better” if they included those pesky times when they didn’t.</p>
<p>Not content to skip the bad times on the back end, they skipped them on the front end too. The authors concluded the data collection before they got to the classes of 2009. OCI happens after the first year, so when did the class of 2009 go through it? That’s right, 2007, the year of the crash. That class and the subsequent classes (incidentally, the only classes we care about) are excluded from the analysis.</p>
<p>Now, I’m not claiming leaving these things out was intentional. The data on recent classes had not been well-collected when the study was done. I can’t explain skipping the early 1990s contraction in the legal market but there was probably a good reason. It’s also worth pointing out that the authors were law school professors with a vested financial interest in the outcome of their study. As any psychologist will tell you, that’s a good way to get bad results. But essentially, their “study” missed the legal market contractions both before and after their data set. That means the most they can possibly conclude is “when things are going well, lawyers do better than non-lawyers.” I have no problem with that conclusion, but now is decidedly not a time when things are going well. </p>
<p>If you want me to show you other major flaws in the study, let me know. This thing went through a fairly thorough debunking when it was released. I can go find you plenty of other people analyzing it if the critical flaws I pointed out aren’t enough to convince you.</p>