Using this site I looked up the percentage of first year students without need who received merit aid and how much the average award was. I then calculated the approximate cost of attendance at those universities after the average merit award. This is how the schools on your list came out:
WashU (hail Mary - won’t qualify for need based aid, but hopeful for a shot at the very few art merit scholarships): 4% w/$30,172 → $50k
Your daughter seems like she will be a very strong applicant and may well receive higher than the average awards, if she receives one. But the more selective the university and the higher its stats, the harder it will be to receive merit aid, particularly of a larger amount.
If I were in your family’s shoes, I might investigate some of these which I’ve read good things about their physics and/or art programs (and all have majors in both):
Davidson (NC): 6% with $40,623 → $32k
Lawrence (WI): 98% with $31,185 → $35k
RPI (NY): 77% with $22,757 → $55k
Bradley (IL): 100% with $15,307 → $36k
Lafayette (PA ): 20% w/$23,558 → $52k
Rutgers (NJ): 10% w/$10,948 → $40k
SUNY-Albany: 28% w/$4,559 → $40k
U. of South Carolina: 85% w/$6,394 → $41k (which also has a well-reputed honors program)
I suspect that some of the out-of-state publics might also award a waiver for OOS fees, even if that’s not considered part of a merit aid package, so those costs might well be lower, though your daughter may well prefer UMD over any of the publics on this list.
So if I had your child, I would personally want the numbers of applications to look a bit like this:
At least 3 schools that are extremely likely admittances & extremely likely to be affordable without pushing your budget to the edge (schools like UMD, Lawrence, Bradley)
Schools that are likely to fall within budget, but might be close to the top of the range (Marist, Rutgers, U. of SC, SUNY-Albany) (This category could be collapsed with the previous one if $50k is a comfortable budget.)
Schools that have a fair shot of falling close to budget, but might need some above average merit to get all the way there or a bit of luck at getting the merit (RIT, Northeastern, RPI, Lafayette)
Probably not more than 2 schools with long odds of getting into the budget (BU, UMich, WashU, Davidson)
The number of schools in the middle categories I don’t think I’d have a set number on, though probably not more than 5 between those 2 categories. But it would really depend on which colleges were exciting my child (and if there aren’t 10 that were my exciting my child, then I wouldn’t feel compelled to have the child apply to more just to hit a certain number…so long as there are schools that are extremely likely to be affordable and admitted to that you child would happily attend on the list).
I’d also be very confident in your budget number. Is $50k the tippy-top-squeezing-everything-out-to-the-max, or is it $50k that could be comfortably (if not joyfully) paid? That could also affect which way I advised my child.
I did look up Kenyon and the average merit package wasn’t going to bring it close enough.
Perhaps if the financial aid people consider the father’s court order then the family might get more financial need, but I did look at Smith and the average merit package wasn’t going to get in the $50k price range.
I also looked at Case (where the average merit package would hit around $50k), but the majors were for art history and art conservation and maybe art education, but not necessarily with art, art studies, fine/studio arts, etc. I didn’t delve into the artistic majors offered, as it didn’t seem like they were the right fit, but perhaps OP’s family will do so.
Based on @AustenNut’s site, Kalamazoo would be clearly within budget. That site indicates Whitman would come in closer to $65k, but I know from personal experience that applicants with your D23’s profile should get it down to the $45-50k range. Plus Whitman offers a financial aid guarantee before you apply, so I would keep it on the list if she likes it.
Kalamazoo and Whitman both show up on Niche’s rankings for both physics and fine arts.
Frankly, with those stats and what you can pay, she can choose to apply just about anywhere. Make sure she has a few auto merit matches (2) and then some reaches (4-6). I don’t think she needs safeties as the auto merit ones will serve that purpose.
My suggestion would be to target liberal arts colleges that have architecture/engineering and strong arts program. Swarthmore, Dartmouth, Lafayette and Bucknell should be some schools I would look at. Swarthmore has the design your own major option, which is super cool!
But Swarthmore and Dartmouth both cost over $75-80k/year and offer no merit aid to students without demonstrated need. (Well, Swarthmore offered merit to a total of 9 students according to the most recent Common Data Set; Dartmouth was zero.)
I don’t think it makes sense to invest in applications to reach schools that will remain unaffordable even if she can receive an acceptance.
The problem is it looks like Skidmore offered merit aid to a total of 2 students who did not qualify for need-based aid, according to its latest Common Data Set.
Our experience with a similarly high stats kid this past year is that merit awards have changed a lot since my 2015 and 2018 high school grads were applying. You cannot count on getting the merit award you may need, based on results from your high school or friends’ kids in past years. Apply to schools with discretionary merit awards for sure, but I urge you to include a few schools with automatic merit awards where you know they will be admitted and receive a certain award. Alabama is an example. If NMF, there are some automatic NMF awards out there.
Too bad about Skidmore because it does offer what this student is looking for…
Oh well about Skidmore…here is what is in their website:
Does Skidmore offer any merit based aid?
The Filene Music Scholarship is awarded annually on the basis of a competition to at least four gifted incoming freshmen musicians who seek to further their musical studies in a liberal arts setting. Registration forms and brochures are included in the admissions packet. The Filene Music Scholarship meets demonstrated financial need with grant assistance for those students who are eligible for need-based Skidmore grant aid, thus eliminating the necessity of campus employment and student loans. It is also awarded to winners who do not demonstrate financial need in the amount of $15,000 per year. These scholarships are renewed annually for four years.
Skidmore’s Porter Presidential Scholarships are awarded without regard to financial need to incoming first-year students excelling in the sciences and/or mathematics. A $60,000 scholarship ($15,000 per year) is awarded to each of the five candidates who demonstrate exceptional promise for study in these areas.
If she needs a merit scholarship to afford the school, the reach/target/likely/safety assessment must be based on the large-enough merit scholarship, not admission, at the school.
For example, a safety would mean assured admission and affordability at list price, or assured large-enough merit scholarship to make the net price affordable.
A college that is a safety for admission may be a reach for a large-enough merit scholarship. This would mean that it must be considered a reach.
Yes. If a school requires a competition for a full ride or full tuition scholarship, it’s a reach. Most of the competitive full rides have less than 5% and many less than 1% award rates making them harder to predict than admissions to HYPSM.
I think you mean that CSS Profile schools might not look to the father’s assets beyond the promised $15k contribution and then potentially determine the student qualifies for some additional need-based aid under their formulas, looking at the mother’s assets and income alone.
I don’t think we know enough about the OP’s finances to assume that. If the OP can contribute $35k, I was assuming she would not qualify for need-based grants under any school’s formula, but I could be wrong.
My experience is that those with a $50k/year budget tend to be in the middle-class donut hole between those who qualify for aid and those able to pay full price at highly selective schools.
OP stated that the NPCs using bio dad’s financials are not affordable, so something >$50K (maybe not qualify for need based aid at all).
So non-merit giving meet full need schools that require NCP finanicals are off the table, like Dartmouth. Schools which offer very little merit aid that cost $80K per year, like Swat and Skidmore should be considered high reaches.