From my understanding, the 40,000 figure isn’t necessarily the EA applicant figure, but rather, the number of applicants through mid November. My guestimate would be 35,000 EA applicants, and 65,000-70,000 total applicants by February 1.
This is on their blog:
Over the last few years, EA applicants have equalled roughly half of the total applicant pool. So I guess if the trend continues, we could be looking at 75,000 applicants. But I doubt it. I think 65,000-70,000 is more likely.
The UC system had a record breaking year. Applications to Cal were up 5% and UCLA was up 11%. I’d guess that Michigan will fall somewhere in between. So, I think 65,000-70,000 is plausible.
There may be a shift towards EA as there is little adverse effect by doing so and it is almost required for merit aids. I am also expecting it to be around 65-70k now.
It’s estimated to be about a 35% increase from last year
Just playing around with numbers, but if 85% were deferred of the 40,000 EA apps, that means 34,000 EA apps will be sent to the RD round (6,000 accepted). And if another 25,000 apps are expected (40,000+25,000=65,000), then that means UM will be considering 59,000 EA deferred/RD apps for acceptance or rejection. If last year’s admittances were 16,000 for 7,000 enrollees, then UM will need to accept around another 10,000+ applicants since they’ve already accepted around 6,000.
So, 10,000 more acceptances/59,000 total EA deferrals + new applicants = 17% acceptance rate for the RD round?
@sushiritto They’ve accepted close to 8000 for EA
@SingingBusDriver In my best supervillain voice,“Who are you?” 
Someone who is seriously craving sushi ATM
(double post)
@SingingBusDriver Coincidentally, I had a sushiritto for lunch today.
Will trade information for a sushiritto