I may be naive, but I actually believe these colleges when they say they typically don’t discuss test scores again after the initial academic screening.
Interestingly, the Harvard litigation, the Yale Admissions Podcast, and other sources all suggest it is really not so much a matter of thin margins as a matter of combinatorics. They internally rate different things, but then they give an overall rating which is not necessarily just an average of the individual ratings. And then they discuss the ones with good overall ratings and decide who to admit. And for many successful applicants, it is not so much a matter of getting some marginal advantage on anything, it is just that they were good enough in a long list of ways, and overall the readers/committee liked them.
Now, good enough for these colleges is a pretty high bar. Like, we’ve been discussing how good enough academically for Yale may, for most unhooked applicants, require a really high test score and near-perfect grades in high rigor courses. Other colleges less selective than Yale may sometimes not require a really high test score, however.
And even at a Harvard or Yale, the mathematical model appears to work something like this–if you can be like top 30% among applicants academically, top 40% among those applicants in activities, you are already down to 12%. And then like 20% of those are also considered special enough in terms of personal/fit factors, and now you have like a 2.4% admit rate for unhooked applicants. At a college with maybe more like a 10% admit rate for unhooked applicants, it could be like 50%, 50%, and 40%.
These numbers don’t depend on any one rating being particularly strict (beyond what it took to cut the pool down by a good whack). The issue is more that few applicants actually rate that high in all those ways, particularly not the personal/fit one.
So again, I actually believe these colleges when they say if you get past that 30%, 50%, or whatever academic screen, then it is on to other stuff. Because at that point, they are mostly just looking at different things entirely to determine who actually gets admitted.
Which does you no good if you don’t make it into that group in the first place, of course.