How realistic is UCSB for me?

Now that admission season is drawing near, my nerves and I wanted to know what other people thought of my admission chances into my top school: UCSB. I also applied to UCSC, SDSU, Cal Poly Slo among others and I just wanted to know what my chances were, as that seems to be a popular topic of conversation. Let me know what you think, I appreciate brutal honesty (and maybe some optimism, too).

-GPA: weighted-4.05, weighted and capped-3.75
-I have taken 10 AP classes since the beginning of my freshman year.
-I did get an ‘F’ in AP Calc AB my Junior year first semester, tried to make up for it by taking a Stats class at my local community college and earned a B.
-ASB Club Commissioner senior year
-President of the Mental Health Awareness club since junior year
-Varsity Girls soccer captain senior year
-Homecoming princess (not a big deal, maybe just shows involvement in school community)
-Link Crew leader
-Part time job since 16 yrs. old
-Church youth group leader
-involved in clubs: FCA, Envrionmental Club

SAT/ACT?
Intended major?
You cannot make up for the F unless you repeat the exact same class.
What are your safety schools?

Some GPA statistical data below:

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 capped weighted and not major specific:

UCB: 1%
UCLA: 2%
UCSD: 7%
UCSB: 8%
UCI: 7%
UCD: 14%
UCSC: 33%
UCR: 49%
UCM: 82%

2018 UC capped weighted GPA averages:
UCB: 4.23
UCLA: 4.23
UCSD: 4.16
UCSB: 4.13
UCI: 4.13
UCD: 4.11
UCSC: 3.96
UCR: 3.81
UCM: 3.71

2018 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1360-1540

UCLA: 1340-1540
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1270-1500
UCD: 1220-1480
UCI: 1230-1490
UCSC: 1210-1450
UCR: 1130-1380
UCM: 1020-1280

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCB: 30-35
UCLA: 31-35
UCSD: 28-34
UCSB: 28-34
UCD: 26-33
UCI: 26-33
UCSC: 26-32
UCR: 22-30
UCM: 19-26