The heading comes from an Inside Higher Ed article.
The author theorizes about 2050 by looking back at 1992 acceptance rates and projecting forward 30 years. There are a TON of caveats, but the author believes that continued reductions in acceptance rates are plausible.
In the article, the projected admit rate for Stanford are 0.7%; Princeton is 1%, Northwestern is 1.1%, and Brown is the easiest of the small list at 3%.
The conclusion goes…
In a world of 2050, where the U.S.’s already-wealthy schools are unimaginably more affluent, it is entirely imaginable that most students at elite schools will be attending for free.
Under this scenario, an acceptance rate of 1 percent seems eminently plausible for the elite university of 2050.
Is it plausible that Princeton’s 1,650 admits will come from 165,000 applications?
Regression toward the mean represents a valid predictive model. If applied to this scenario, the acceptance rates for most currently ultra-selective colleges will rise by 2050.
I’m doubtful that this would be the outcome in 2050. If HYP and super-elites all become free for all admitted students (except the children of extraordinarily wealthy) then the endowments are going to start going down. And unless each grad becomes extraordinarily wealthy to then donate the equivalent amount in tuition, room & board, then the endowments will continue to decrease in size. It might take a while, but the elite institutions won’t be able to sustain that model. The fact that Stanford and other institutions of that ilk are so generous is in part because they still have so many others who pay full freight.
Plus, there are already many upper-middle class families that are balking at the price of higher education, much less those from families who are less well off. Until the ratio of income to education stabilizes more, people are going to be choosing the most cost-effective institutions and/or choosing other, less expensive, paths to help them be financially self-sustaining.
Actually, HYP schools could afford to not charge tuition today. Take Princeton. As of 30 June 2021, its endowment stood at $37.7bn, with an average annual return of 11.2% over the preceding 20 years.
With a class size of 1650 and assuming an all-in cost of $100K per student per year, it would cost the university $165m a year (or $660m for the entire undergraduate population). If the endowment generates, say, an 8% average annual return going forward, it wouldn’t have to worry about depleting the capital base.
Totally agree. That’s why I reduced the annual return average substantially (8% going forward instead of the actual return of 11.2% over 20 years; note that it was 12.7% over the past 10 years).
My initial reaction when reading the article was aligned with @merc81 's, but my assumption was based on “softer” issues, not cost.
The past 30 years I will call the “US News” years. Lower and lower acceptance rates often driven by systemic adjustments to improve selectivity measurements. From 2 essays to 1…to none. Test optional. No fee. Larger admissions staffing to drive larger application numbers. A chicken and egg. Then there’s the common app.
There is a LOT of pushback here about elite schools. “My kid turned them down and is the happiest, wealthiest kid in America.” If elite schools continue on the path of reduced admissions, do graduates potentially face assumptions of entitlement and privilege that work against them in the broader country?
A comment was made about smaller populations. Those demographics are much more threatening to good and average private colleges than they are for elites.
Forget free. What if elite schools with huge endowments can at a minimum stem cost increases? Flagship schools are constantly at risk for tax money…what if it cost significantly more to attend Rutgers than Princeton, or BC/BU were twice the price of Harvard?
My gut is that schools are going to start finding ways to reduce some of the noise…the “what the hell, I’ve got an extra $80, why not” apps that have no chance of admission will somehow fade.
I was thinking the same. I would hate to be an AO at an institution that receives 165K applications and makes ~2000 offers. So much wasted time and it would be mind-numbing as well.
I’ve seen Back to the Future 2. Maybe then, we’ll have flying cars and wear pasta strainers on our heads. The funny thing about elite schools is that there’s no incentive to be less selective. As population increases, keeping the number of slots the same makes them look more and more prestigious. It’s worked well for them so far, even though they’re getting money for doing literally nothing. I imagine it’s going to be the same in 2050, unless they’re bought out by the University of Wikipedia…anything could happen!