<p>There are a number of posts that come up asking whether the schools on a persons' list are good matches or if there are enough safeties or if it's too reach heavy, etc. There's no one right answer so it may still be helpful to post a note and ask for multiple opinions, but for those who aren't sure, here's how to judge whether a particular (U.S.) school is a match, a reach, or a safety for you.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Determine what the admissions criteria are for the college. In maybe 90% of the cases, the criteria really come down to high school GPA and test scores. If the school is test optional, then it's basically all GPA. ECs and hooks may count for something, but perhaps less than you'd think.</p></li>
<li><p>Find out the high school GPA and test score distributions for the most recent entering class at the college. One good place to do so is the U.S. Department of Education's College Navigator at College</a> Navigator - National Center for Education Statistics. The reason I go there rather than to the college's website or to guidebooks is that the data at College Navigator, while still self-reported by the institutions, carries an enormous penalty for being wrong. Failing to provide accurate information to the Department of Education has the potential to put a college's eligibility for federal student financial aid in jeopardy. If some colleges play games with guidebooks like only including non-athletes in SAT numbers or translating ACT to SAT scales or stuff like that, they are much less likely to play those games with the Department. </p></li>
<li><p>If you're an international student, look for the college's Common Data Set to find out TOEFL standards.</p></li>
<li><p>While you're there, look for admission rate. Keep in mind that if the college has an admission rate of less than, say, 20%, then it's a reach for pretty much everyone. That's not because your stats don't fit well with the institution, but because at 20% or less, admission is a lottery. Those institutions have more applicants with great stats than they have space for. While the institution does not choose from among those applicants at random, from your perspective it might as well be random. You don't know what criteria will be used one year to the next. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Jay's Corollary: All Ivies are reaches for all applicants.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Assuming a non-absurd admission rate, compare your stats (GPA and test scores) to the distribution of the college. Often the scores are displayed as 25th and 75th percentiles, aka mid-ranges, aka middle 50%. That means that 25% of the admitted students had scores less than the 25th percentile, and 75% of admitted students had scores less than the 75th percentile.</p></li>
<li><p>My rule of thumb is that if your stats are at or above the 75th percentile, the college is a safety (at least academically). If your stats are well in the middle of the middle 50%, then it is a match. If your stats are towards the lower end of that middle 50% or below, then it is a reach. </p></li>
<li><p>Keep in mind a safety isn't a safety if you can't afford it. If you could easily gain admission but could never pay for it, then it's not a safety. A safety is an institution that, if you got accepted to no other, you're pretty much guaranteed that you're going to college. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>So, a couple of issues that sometimes arise:</p>
<p>What if my GPA is at the 75th percentile but my SAT scores are at the 25th percentile or some similar mismatch?</p>
<p>Well, that's a tough one. If you know that the institution places a stronger emphasis on one stat or another, then that helps. If you don't know, then you might be looking at what we call a high match or low reach. That is, it's probably a match, but if the institution is focused on rankings, it probably isn't. The higher an institution is ranked, all else equal, the more incentive it has not to take a risk on someone with mismatched stats. In particular if your GPA is low and your SAT is high, you come across as a risk. If your GPA is high and your SAT is low, you may just be a bad test taker.</p>
<p>How do I tell if I can afford a college and it is therefore really a safety?</p>
<p>The first step is understanding the difference between sticker price and net price. Sticker price is how much the listed tuition, fees, and room and board are. For private colleges it sometimes tops $40,000. That does not mean (necessarily) that's how much you'll pay to go there. Colleges with high tuition almost always have high financial aid as well. Academic ability and financial need are the two most common factors used in determining how much aid you'll be awarded. Average award amounts are not terribly useful because no one is average. Colleges are in the process of complying with a new federal law by putting net price calculators on their web sites, and that will be your best bet at figuring out how much the college might actually cost for you to attend. Another great source is other students from your high school who have attended the college in question, if there are any. Another great source is the financial aid office at the college.</p>
<p>Who do I ask if I'm not sure about my chances at a college?</p>
<p>I'd talk first with your guidance counselor, next with an admissions counselor from the college, and next CC.</p>
<p>Who the heck are you?</p>
<p>I work at a small liberal arts college in the southeast. I'm what's called an institutional researcher, which means I know the numbers side of higher education pretty well. None of my job responsibilities include recruiting students, and <strong><em>everything above is strictly my opinion and not necessarily the position of my employer</em></strong>. I post on CC because I care about higher ed, not because my job requires it. I have a doctorate in higher and adult education, a master's in information science, and a bachelor's in computer science and business. I've worked in the financial services, retail, and higher ed industries. I know the definition of heteroschedastisity, I am a terrible speller, and I like Tom Clancy books and short walks to the refridgerator.</p>
<p>I hope that's helpful. I'm sure others will come along to amend and correct, so pay attention to what they say. </p>
<p>Good luck with your college search!</p>
<p>Jay</p>