Identifying Hidden Gem schools by the numbers, and considerations for admissions after 9th grade

Prep School Admissions
1

<p>I don’t participate in this forum as much as I used to, since both my kids have completed the boarding school admissions process and our family's focus has shifted to college admissions. But I’d like to do a data-dump before I go. </p>

<p>Here is some interesting data analysis for highlighting Hidden Gem boarding schools-- mathematical gleanings from noticing some statistical anomalies in SSAT vs SAT scores, admit rates & endowment size . Below is one analysis for applicants who are applying for 10th grade or higher. To see all the different lists, please visit @twinsmama’s thread from last year (see posts #38 to #77):<br>
<a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17098355#Comment_17098355"&gt;http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17098355#Comment_17098355&lt;/a>
The poster @SharingGift is also a numbers-cruncher and has also posted a number of interesting data analyses.</p>

<p>Edited from one of my posts from last year’s admission cycle. These are 2012-13 numbers, so take them w a grain of salt:</p>

<p>Legendary bank robber Willie Sutton supposedly said he robbed banks "because that's where the money is."</p>

<p>Well, one rational approach to deciding which schools to pursue is to determine which ones actually have the most available slots for new students. All schools have plenty of slots for 9th graders, but after 9th grade the picture can change dramatically.</p>

<p>When formulating a list of schools for GMTson2 for 10th grade admission, I looked closely not just at admit rates and SSAT scores, but at how many slots were available for new 10th grade boarders. Some schools are particularly difficult for 10th grade boarding applicants: Thacher, Cate, St.Andrews, Groton-- too few available slots. We just didn't bother with these. You can apply this same logic to admission for even higher grades.</p>

<p>While the best source of data on the number of kids in each grade comes straight from the school’s website, you might be able to find the data for some schools on this useful U.S. Dept of Education website (when it's working...)
<a href="http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pss/privateschoolsearch/school_detail.asp?Search=1&SchoolName=groton&NumOfStudentsRange=more&IncGrade=-1&LoGrade=-1&HiGrade=-1&ID=00603075"&gt;http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pss/privateschoolsearch/school_detail.asp?Search=1&SchoolName=groton&NumOfStudentsRange=more&IncGrade=-1&LoGrade=-1&HiGrade=-1&ID=00603075&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>This is my estimation of the approximate number of new 10th BOARDING boys or girls admitted (i.e. it's already divided by 2), w yield already factored in. Do NOT take these numbers literally. Just use them as rough indicators of whether a school has plenty of slots or few slots. This is not an exhaustive list. It only includes coed schools w low % of day students and have avg SSAT scores above 65% percentile.</p>

<p>66 Berkshire School
66 Northfield Mount Hermon
56 Kent School
55 Loomis Chaffee
47 Taft School
41 Phillips Academy
40 Deerfield Academy
39 Phillips Exeter
37 Choate Rosemary Hall
37 Hotchkiss School
31 Lawrenceville School
30 St. Paul's School
25 Hill School
25 St. George's School
23 St. Mark's School
19 Peddie School
19 Webb Schools
17 Episcopal High
17 Middlesex School
15 Blair Academy
15 Groton School
11 Cate School
9 St. Andrew's School
3 Thacher School
As Loomis just opened a new dorm and expanded the number of boarders, I expect that it has become an even more attractive boarding prospect. </p>

<p>From the list above, at first glance it looks promising that Andover, Deerfield & Exeter have ~40 slots for 10th grade boys and ~40 slots for 10th grade girls, but these schools are hard as hell to get into. So I need to take into account that schools have different levels of selectivity. Therefore, if I multiply the above list by the school's admit rate, then this is the "weighted" number of new 10th BOARDING boys or girls admitted, i.e. this is a ranking of schools as a good risk for 10th grade admission:</p>

<p>22 Kent School
20 Berkshire School
19 Northfield Mount Hermon
15 Loomis Chaffee
11 Taft School
9 Hill School
7 Lawrenceville School
7 Choate Rosemary Hall
7 Episcopal High
7 St. Mark's School
7 Hotchkiss School
7 St. George's School
7 Phillips Exeter
6 Phillips Academy
5 St. Paul's School
5 Deerfield Academy
5 Webb Schools
4 Blair Academy
4 Peddie School
4 Middlesex School
2 Cate School
2 St. Andrew's School
2 Groton School
0 Thacher School</p>

<p>If you want to run your own numbers for other schools or other grades, I've determined an empirical formula for average yield rate if you don’t have the exact yield figure:
0.06*(avgSSATpercentile ÷ admit rate) + 0.35 = Yield</p>

<p>So for Choate:
0.06 * (85% ÷ 19%) + 0.35 = 0.62 Yield</p>

<p>Obviously, picking "winners" is not just math. This was just a starting point to delineate which schools are an especially good or risky bet. For S1, we were new to the admissions process and had no clue what we were doing. For S2, the math helped to shape a strategic list of schools. But in the end he still to like the school and still had to get himself in. </p>

<p>GOOD LUCK</p>

2

<p>What’s the highest percentage you’ve found the formula and actual to vary?</p>

3

<p>Bump</p>

4

For context, I just inquired about a hidden gem of about 350 students (not on the list above) about the chances of getting off the waitlist. They explained that they overenrolled last year’s 9th grade class, leaving only six places for tenth graders. Only one was for a 9th grade boarding boy. At least that info made us feel a little better about being waitlisted.

5

I don’t know about admission, but I’ve been told by multiple schools that it’s easier to get FA as a freshman.

Why?! You’d think they’d prefer to pay for only three years, but I guess not.

6

I wanted to update the Loomis numbers. This admit cycle, they had space for 15 boarding boys and 15 boarding girls. Assuming the goal of a 70/30 Boarding/Day ratio set out by the Admissions Department, there would be space for 2 more day spaces for each gender. I have no clue what their yield numbers are, although I know total applications were at a record high of over 2000. They are opening a new dorm in 2016, so this may bump up the availability.

7

For Berkshire school I believe it is a little different. They accept a specific # of students, the freshman class will be about 55 then 65 are accepted for Sophomore year. So I do believe it could be easier to get FA as an incoming sophomore. @stargirl3

8

@PreppyHenry They have spots for new sophomores, but not financial aid.

9

Yes, FA is a different lens through which to assess the “likely” spots.

10

So the sophomore class at Berkshire is 120? That’s a huge increase over freshman year, which is interesting.

11

Yes, Berkshire’s enrollment doubles from freshman to sophomore year, which I also found quite interesting/different from many other small(ish) schools

**Berkshire School Enrollment/b
Grades 9-12 & PG Total: 399
Boarding: 358/Day: 41
Form III (9th grade): 55
Form IV (10th grade): 111
Form V (11th grade): 114
Form VI (12th grade): 104

12

It’s really not that surprising. Western MA is home to many junior boarding schools, so schools like Berkshire, NMH, Williston see a spike as a result of these feeder schools.

13

@stargirl3 Oh ok, I was not sure.

14

@skieurope Actually it’s kind of surprising, they do not have a lot of feeder schools. At my revisit day I was talking to multiply faculty members (Including AO’s) Who said a lot of their incoming sophomores, just apply later…

15

Bump again, to put some other good prospects on people’s radar.

16

Since I seem to be the Mercersburg cheerleader around here (neatoburrito’s D having moved on), I should mention that the 10th grade class at Mercersburg is larger than the 9th grade (too lazy to look up numbers), so it is certainly an option for 10th grade applicants.

17

Quite a few schools add students to 10th grade. However, there is a flow of full-pay, well-qualified applicants from pre-preps that offer 9th grade. So it isn’t necessarily easier to get in for 10th grade.