<p>mom2three,
It wouldn't work. Not because they don't know if they need an oboe player,
or because that might over-encourage too many oboe players to apply, but because the college priorities change with the applications received. They may be able to anticipate what they hope to get next year, based on graduating seniors this year, but they do not know the other talents (not yet perceived as being "needed") which will not present themselves until the same admission round in which your S or D is applying. Suddenly the oboe player takes a back seat to Sarah Hughes (Yale) or Emily Hughes. Or to the S or D of a Tiger Woods or equivalent. Or to a child science prodigy about to be profiled in Newsweek or on 60 Minutes. Similarly for parallel talent which is less in the celebrity category. Or they'll accept merely an oboe player with slightly 'lower" stats from a high-density state, but also accept many high-stat kids from Montana, Idaho, and Tennessee, due to an unexpected surge of applications from there or take-your-pick State. (When there's a spike of apps from a particular region or State, the top-tier schools try to adjust for that & be inclusive.)</p>
<p>This is a real-time, fluid situation. No way to out-predict "chances." At minimum you can look at the history (esp. recent), and I don't mind agreeing with you on that account. (I obtain some of my own partial histories from CC Results reports, which can be quite comprehensive in such matters.)</p>
<p>That said, what I would prefer they do is concentrate on transparency in nonacademic aspects of campus life. Of course, the marketing people wouldn't like this idea (because they couldn't control it), but I think the colleges should do 2 things in that regard:</p>
<p>(1) Open up an ongoing blog about campus life, on their websites (a mini-CC), wherein current students & recent graduates can post & answer questions, submitting their student ID in the password login only. This would be a 'virtual visit' link, maybe in some cases including video & audio.</p>
<p>(2) Do more active sponsoring of earlier visits than hosting days, during the app process itself. For those needing funds for that, earmark future financial aid with such earlier visits, first extending the visit $, then debiting it against the f.a. package if the student enrolls. The visit opportunity and cost could be linked to the Profile or FAFSA, which would control the number of visits any student could select. (Kind of self-limiting anyway, due to junior & senior year h.s. academics)</p>
<p>There are several examples on CC of students who enrolled in ivies or other "desirable" schools, only to suffer culture-shock or culture disappointment, due to lack of transparency about these aspects. (Socioeconomic realities & dynamics, social priorities of students enrolled, etc.) Students and/or their parents have posted about this.</p>