To my surprise, my kids’ school recently lowered their Campus Covid Risk Rating from Highest (Red) to Moderate (Orange). [Aside: remember the terrorism threat risk assessment? Funny how that now seems like a simpler time] The school and town Covid numbers look good, so I guess in that context it makes sense.
However, as in much of the US, the wider surrounding county data is less good, and the statewide data that much worse. Positive rate %, cases, hospitalizations, deaths. All trending in the wrong direction - up - and in some instances are back to the worst levels from the spring or summer.
Tents and lawns are about to become pretty much unusable for gatherings as they are now. From my POV there’s not nearly enough going on inside of facilities to realistically have an indoor winter semester.
Pretty much all the schools I know of are breaking for Thanksgiving with a plan to reconvene in January. But will they? Let me also ask it this way: if things were in late August the way they are now, would schools have convened in September?
Sorry to be That Guy. I sure hope I’m wrong. Maybe you all can talk me off the ledge here. And I know a lot can change between now and January, in either direction. Most of the warnings seem to be of the “it’s going to be bad this winter” variety though, so…
@DroidsLookingFor Your’e not that guy. It’s tough. We are in MA also, I still can’t believe it when I look up the number of cases (since Jan) and the number of deaths. It is very high (#4) and hit the same places. Now it’s back. Our BS was doing quite well but now it’s back a step. One step forward ( gingerly), then hold, then a step back.
I don’t think anyone is doing anything wrong. Numbers were very, very low in MA this Summer and have been steadily climbing. Wasn’t the blip I thought due to colleges returning so I’m not sure why the upswing ( maybe more people letting down their guard). Everyone is certainly wearing a mask everywhere I go. I do see people in restaurants (inside) which I would not do. But stores are fairly empty. Even those outside malls are barren.
Still, I am super optimistic as compared to last Spring. The number of cases is high but the death rate has plummeted. Hospitalizations are way down. And people seem to be getting out of the hospital much faster. My doctor friends are also optimistic. One told me there is more control over how it’s being treated. Some people are very worried about flu and covid ( then again some people worry about the flu every year and we do not).
Numbers will likely go up a lot then people will change behaviors and numbers will fall back. No one wants to get this thing, but I think most people are taking better precautions. And yes, nearly everyone has been tested at this point which was not the case in the Spring.
Hope your student can hang in there til Thanksgiving. That’s our family goal, to get to Thanksgiving.
I hope so. I am optimistic because 1) really data has shown that schools generally aren’t covid hot spots and 2) the BS seem to be doing a better job than most in terms of testing and planning.
We are in MA as well and if we can stay open right now with pretty much no school transmission then we should be able to survive in January. Now, will we have our winter sports season, that I think is likely not going to happen.
My son’s school (in CT) has already announced they are breaking at Thanksgiving and continuing at home with online classes through February. The kids all go back at the end of February and there is no March break. (At least, that is the plan right now)
It seems incredibly unlikely that kids will return to campus after the winter break. Campuses are well-controlled now and seeing minimal infection. The winter break will change that - kids will return to hot spot states/countries, socialize closely with friends and family, travel to ski resort hot spots, etc. What school in their right mind would bring kids back from highly varied and uncontrolled environments, while national cases soar and then hope to re-contain the threat for 2.5 months until Spring break?! It ain’t gonna happen.
The schools will not risk putting themselves in the position of urgently moving kids off campus. I completely agree that the morbidity and mortality stats are far more favorable now, but it only takes one bad outcome and the associated press to ruin a school.
We are already assuming that the winter term will be remote (which I’ve heard PA is already planning on) and the earliest the kids will return is after spring break.
SPS plans to break at Thanksgiving and reconvene in January with the same quarantine restrictions that they had prior to starting the fall term. They have cancelled March break and will end in May rather than June. I don’t think their plans will change. They had a good opening and the kids did a good job of following the rules.
We are expecting an email from our school in the next few days to confirm Thanksgiving break and January return plans. The rumor is that the school plans to return in January, but most speculate it will be later than the original Jan 4 (?) date. The school will also have to contend with the fact that 44 states are on the NJ quarantine list, something I don’t see changing by early January. The good (?) news, is that we don’t have to clean dorm rooms out before Thanksgiving break. My guess is that winter sports will be cancelled, and students will do remote learning through January, returning in early Feb and staying through the end of the school year. Every day I hope for news that we have a reliable, safe vaccine that will be readily available to those most vulnerable by the end of January, so we can start getting back to a truly normal (not the “new normal”) life.
Well, if the schools use the same ramp on, ramp up policies in January, I really don’t see an issue. If the kid can’t pass quarantine they don’t go. I do think the international kids will still be in limbo. Who wants to travel 5,000 miles, wait in quarantine then get turned away. Most parents can’t take that amount of time off.
I think some schools will run at least hybrid in the Winter term. Also believe some might hold off for a few weeks.
I appreciate the positive thoughts but I just don’t see it right now, sorry to say.
And I think focusing solely on what’s happening on campus and in whatever constitutes the nearby/adjacent town, even for the very rural, isolated schools, is a mistake.
At our school at least one of the metrics they’re explicitly using to inform plan-making is nearby hospitalization utilization. If hospital ICUs are at/over capacity (currently 5 Boston-area hospitals are at that level), schools do not want to be in a position to have to send kids into that kind of situation either directly or indirectly (i.e. if parents have to come get a sick kid they may not be able to fly home and so would have to rely on local healthcare options).
I think best case is rolling decision-making. But that puts a tough burden on those who have to fly in, doubly so for those coming from outside the US.
The whole situation is so unsettling. I feel like we West Coasters are on a completely different schedule. We are only just now getting the kids into live classes, and they don’t come home until Dec 11. With covid going crazy right now, that seems like forever. A lot can happen.
The plan is a month off, then back in January. I think they will make that happen, as public schools is Cal are talking about being in person then, too. Sports are being scheduled. But if things go off the rails, and they might, who knows. Cal numbers are ticking up, like everyone else, but they are still much lower than they were this summer.
They are discussing skipping spring break, but I doubt they will decide anything on that front until the last minute they have to.
I wish our school would keep the kids through spring break. If they did, it seems like they could be more aggressive about bringing the kids back after winter break. They could still give the kids a couple days off on-campus, perhaps with some structured activities, and then end the academic year in late May. What good will spring break be this year anyway? Travel will likely be fairly restricted and juniors/seniors will not be able to visit colleges.
One issue, though, for some northeastern schools is the cold and darkness in January. Coming back to school and going into a 14 day serious quarantine, which is what my son’s school did in August, and will do again in February, is much more difficult in the winter. E.g. they ate meals outside with their pod in August, and that would not work in January. Plus it is so dark, that can’t be helpful for their mental health. I think staying home until March works better than going back earlier and finishing earlier.
I agree with this…if we are going to skip a month, let’s skip January. Then hopefully by February we will be farther along w covid vaccines and closer to weather warming up. I’m not sure our daughter can handle another two weeks of on campus quarantine again (and as you said, in worse conditions given the weather and shortage of daylight). My husband is already throwing around the idea of renting a B&B so she could quarantine in state, but off campus, but he’s forgotten to consider the logistics of getting our middle school child to/from school every day (just over an hour round trip)!
I’ll jump in and say I will be very surprised if we don’t go to a limited cohort model that doesn’t include my 9th grader on campus. And that would be my best case scenario guess. My gut says March is more likely for many reasons stated above.
@DroidsLookingFor I checked the MA data (came out yesterday). There are 106 folks in ICU in MA (total). The highest % of ICU beds being used is in Boston with 10%. Don’t know where you got the idea that any hospitals are at/near capacity. Nothing in the state is even close as of today. You can google MA Covid and go to the MA website. They post detailed information daily and weekly. It has lots of information. I often look at it as news reports often make things sound worse. If I am in a specific part of the state (or your kid is) you probably want to see what is happening locally. They even break it down by city and hospital ( I know many BS are in rural areas with fewer hospitals). Happy to send you the link if you’d like.
I don’t know about you but I feel better when I have real data that’s being updated. The MA governor is way more likely to shut down then wait for the ICU’s to fill. He’s been pretty conservative in terms of shutting down compared to other states.
I certainly feel sympathy for folks on the West Coast sending their kids East. For East Coasters January is always dark and cold so that wouldn’t be a reason to change things. But I do believe many schools will consider some changes to Spring break. Hope everyone’s family is well. And hoping that all schools can limp along to Thanksgiving.
I agree @Happytimes2001 listening to the news/reading headlines has been deceptive recently. I think the media is slightly panicked that people won’t take the pandemic seriously if they don’t exaggerate in the headline.
I am hopeful. We didn’t have a two week quarantine, kids had to follow the MA travel rules and most kids simply got tested. All in they were tested three times before classes started and not one tested positive so the system seemed to work fine. I think the two week in dorm quarantine that some schools did was ultra excessive and needless based on school transmission numbers.
In addition, keep in mind that hospital capacity data does not include surge capacity.
My concern is the disconnect between the reality of the morbidity/mortality of COVID (particularly with masking) and the picture being painted by the media. The latter is focusing on new cases, rather than hospital/ICU capacity and that is shaping the politics surrounding COVID. Plus, there is misleading information about reinfection, “long COVID”, vaccine probability, etc, etc that is fueling fear. Last, but not least, throw in teachers that are claiming that children’s lives are at risk and it’s hard to be optimistic about the kids not being remote for the winter term.
But I sure hope that is wrong and the kids are back in January!