I'll go there: will BS have an in-person winter 2021 semester?

@Happytimes2001 I linked to the data initially. But here it is again:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/10/nation/latest-coronavirus-numbers-massachusetts/?event=event12

The Boston Globe daily collates the data presented by the State in ways that are easier to digest and see trends, moving averages, etc. Every single stat is trending in the wrong direction. Every single one: cases, deaths, positive test result %, covid patients in hospital, ICUs at surge capacity (defined as hospitals whose ICUs are entirely full, with additional critical patients in non-ICU rooms converted to ICU rooms) which is currently 3 (and has been bouncing bt 3 and 6 for the last few weeks after being at 0-2 for months).

Also, I wouldn’t take so much solace about the % of ICU beds availability in a metro area of 2 million people covering many many square miles. At the end of the day if you’re very sick you go to a nearby hospital, and you don’t want to get turfed at a time like that and have to take an ambulance 10 miles across the city. Further, hospitals can get overwhelmed quickly. Ask NYC.

You can draw whatever conclusions you wish from the data. But the data are the data and all point in the wrong direction.

mass dot gov has good covid info under the dashboard for people who do not subscribe to the Globe (especially relevant for out of state parents).

I can’t see behind the firewall but I’d go with Mass data over the Boston Globe. Also, while the # of cases is rising everywhere, the amount of time spent in hospitals and the rate of death has plummeted ( by more than 90%). I have a friend who works with the data via Harvard and Mass General, spoke to her the other day. You go into the hospital today and it’s nothing like it was in the Spring. Mass Gen and some of the other major hospitals are good indicators because they get some of the sickest folks. Yes, definitely could surge. Boston also has one of the highest % of bed to population (perhaps even in the country). But if someone is nervous and wants to think worse case, I definitely get it. A lot of people are thinking that way.

I do understand the frenzy. People are watching the news and getting really worried. Just spoke to my Dad who lives in the Boston area. He was watching the news and seeing 80K cases in the US. Doesn’t make one feel safe if they are 85 years old. But, he also knows that there are plenty of resources nearby. He had his first annual physical by facetime some months ago. The medical field has gotten smarter about all aspects of the disease. So have Governor’s who are taking better precautions and not putting the elderly in with coronavirus patients( like NYC did). And the MA governor has done a great job since the onset. He’s cautious. And he’s set the tone for the state.

Mercersburg is adjourning for the fall on Nov 19. Will reconvene back on campus Jan 10. That date might slip, depending on what’s happening in the state, but we are planning full steam ahead to be back for winter, using the same quarantine and testing protocols, trying to create the best mitigation scenarios as possible, while monitoring the incidence rates in central Pennsylvania. Agree… the cold and dark months of Jan/Feb won’t be easy; but Mercersburg is doing its best to make creative use of large indoor spaces, utilizing tents with heaters, and making much-appreciated changes to food service and food delivery options for students. There is still the possibility that we don’t go back right away, or even not at all until April… but we are optimistic and planning for an in-person experience. Honestly the Fall has gone better than anyone would have anticipated. Less than 3 weeks to go, and the kids have had an engaging and immersive fall term. I cannot wait to give my girl the BIGGEST hug (I’ve never been away from her for this long) and we’re already planning the meals we’ll cook while she’s home in December. Like our head of school, I look for the positive, and in August we thought school wouldn’t last 2 weeks. I’m so grateful it has, and am really hoping for the best in January, despite the challenges that the season brings. Big hugs to everyone.

I would not bet on it. I really think it is not just about hospital rates etc. but what kind of boarding school experience can they provide should covid rates continue to go up. As someone already said, with dark and cold outdoor gatherings may be quite limited and if there is severe limit on indoor gatherings, what are the kids to do? Our winter sports have already been canceled and other activities may soon follow, and it may be really hard to keep kids occupied. Plus there is very reluctant faculty by and large, and day students and faculty/staff living off campus that bring increased risk from climbing covid rates in the community.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/10/30/nation/graphic-number-covid-19-high-risk-communities-mass-has-risen-dramatically-take-look-where/

Updated mass gov numbers we are down to one hospital using surge capacity.

Also, if you look at the graphic of deaths - 1.8% had no underlying conditions. As I was driving this morning npr is talking about towns somewhat disputing their status because almost all their cases are in long term care facilities.

Together this makes me 1) really sad for the vulnerable - we have at least 5 such people in our family 2) but also hopeful that schools can stay open.

Baker said yesterday that schools should be open. I don’t think he’s going to reverse course on that.

I’m a little disappointed that winter sports have been cancelled (ISL) but that public schools still think they are happening. To be clear public schools also had a fall season.

For anyone who doesn’t know how to find this info.

www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-october-30-2020/download

Thanks. Each state does things their own way, and the Bay State’s info is tough to find if you’re not channeling Bay State logic.

I was able to find the data for cases in public schools (students/teachers only). But I could not find something similar for private schools. (NY has the links to search these things all on the same page.)

Also, is my kid’s BS the only one planning on having boarders on campus after Thanksgiving? At least, that was the plan at orientation: boarders can continue to board if they do not leave campus. Boarders who leave campus for Thanksgiving or Christmas are to pack up their rooms and transition to virtual students (or day, if they live locally) until the end of January. (We all know that plans can change on a dime.)

@stalecookies Yes, MA info is hard to wade through. I’ve been using it since March so I’ve gotten used to the presentation. I haven’t seen any breakdown by public/private schools. Usually if there’s a school breakout, it’s also reported in the town newspaper. Our school has done a great job reporting testing and if there are any positives. Kids seem to hear this stuff immediately. Public schools have closed and reopened several times in some cases. There seem to be more public schools closed than private schools (in MA anyway).

I’m sad sports were canceled at most BS’s but do understand it. Brought my kid to an outdoor meet to see old classmates and they were still doing sports. My kid thought it was a bit reckless ( I kind of agree). Though it’s nearly impossible for athletes to keep in shape.

I live in MA about 40 miles from DD2’s BS. It’s been really difficult (for me!) being so close, but not being able to see her for 2 months. I can appreciate the “bubble” though, because she has been having the time of her life since day one! The school’s plan worked. We thought for sure she would be in-person longer than DD2 who goes to the LPS. Looking like that will not be the case.
We live in a county outside of Boston that I’m not so sure ever got out of the “red” and a town that has been in the “red” for the last 6 weeks. Most Covid cases have been outside of the school community, but between staff and students there has been 18 positives thus far in our small district. Despite that, schools have not been closed and sports are still being played against other towns. Individuals or specific groups were told to quarantine and test once positives were known, and there hasn’t proven to be any clusters or spread within the schools. Our amazingly resolute Superintendent saw no reasonable cause to shut down.
This is a public school that does not test, has no formal contact tracing and has to rely on a family’s word. I believe our district is one of the examples the MA Ed Commissioner looked to when he recently gave new guidelines that being “red” is no reason to shift to fully remote unless there is evidence of school spread.
I will be very upset if DD2 can’t go back to BS if DD1 is still getting in-person education at LPS. I know lots of kids will travel, but PS kids have been doing it all Fall. I know BS kids live together, but it’s highly controlled unlike college. With the abundance of resources including testing and contact tracing, there is no reason the BS’s shouldn’t be able to figure out how to get these kids back into their bubble safely. Maybe it depends on the size of the school, but I’m going to remain optimistic.

Our CT BS has announced remote learning from Thanksgiving to Jan. 20 (not including Christmas break), then a one month break, followed by in-person and remote optional classes resuming Feb. 20 through early June. Seems like a reasonable plan. Likely a 14 day at-home quarantine before returning in February, immediately followed by an in-room one upon campus arrival.

We have our SAD light on order based on some CC parent suggestions.

Unless a State of CT mandate comes down, appears pretty feasible this plan goes ahead.

I would not take an ounce of solace that as of X day only one hospital is in ICU surge capacity. It’s been bouncing daily between 0-6 for weeks. That’s means there are a half dozen hospitals that are right at 100% of regular ICU capacity.

Someone new comes in? Boom they’re in surge. Someone passes or is discharged? Boom now not in surge.

That’s not comforting. That’s bad.

ICU capacity will become a problematic metric over the next month, as flu season really kicks in. Masking and other actions may overall lessen the flu season, but flu patients will still end up in ICU beds.

Gov. Baker just dialed up the restrictions in MA:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/02/nation/charlie-baker-discuss-new-executive-orders-coronavirus-news-conference-today/

Here’s a fun one: private indoor gatherings limited to 10 people. I wonder how many people will disregard this on Thanksgiving…

currently in a thanksgiving battle of my own over just this issue. who will win? one1ofeach or her MIL?? Only time will tell.

@one1ofeach I just heard that Baker announcement and thought the exact same thing. Ten indoors wouldn’t fit our annual bash. Might slow down the folks who will travel by plane and car.

Let’s hope this year’s flu vaccine is the right strain.

All students in MA schools being required to have the flu vaccine should help.

Do you think anyone is going to follow the guidelines though? 3/4 of people I know who are older are completely in favor of thanksgiving because they are unsure they will make it out the other side of this and don’t want to miss last moments. They have literally said “if we die we absolve you of responsibility.”

Our state is already under the same guidelines and it hasn’t helped yet. It’s the right thing to do, and MA numbers are better than our state. Commence finger crossing.