Influence of US News Rankings on the Matriculation Decision of High-Ability Students

<p>Although I'm not a follower of rankings debates, I thought this research report, circa 2005, was interesting, if not a somewhat sad indicator of our reliance on media/rankings hype (& I guess generally predictable.) </p>

<p>Link to full report:
<a href="http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/cheri/wp/cheri_wp76.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/cheri/wp/cheri_wp76.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Abstract

[quote]
The annual U.S. News and World Report (USNWR) Guide to America’s Best Colleges is a much anticipated magazine among both high-ability prospective students and college and university administrators. In this paper we use a decade of Colgate University Admitted Student Questionnaire surveys to estimate the influence of changes in a school’s USNWR rank on the probability of matriculation of high-ability students. We find that the school choice of students is more responsive to changes in rank the higher (better) a school is ranked. This sensitivity to rank is independent of other objective measures of quality. As a group, women (aided and fullpay) are slightly less sensitive to the rankings than men, minorities (full-pay) are less sensitive to the rankings than non-minorities, and the rankings themselves have become more important over time for aided students. In terms of financial factors, the net cost of attendance along with the packaging of the aid matters for aided students. Finally, merit aid in general does not appear to influence high-ability full-pay students. Our results suggest that it is rational for college administrators (especially those at the highest ranked institutions) to pay attention to their USNWR rank because it is an important influence in yielding accepted students.

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<p>Conclusion

[quote]
In this paper we investigate the influence of the USNWR rankings on the college choice of high-ability high school seniors conditional on the fact that they’ve been accepted to the school. Using a micro dataset of school choice from the Colgate University population of admitted students between 1995 and 2004 we estimate a conditional logit model where school choice is modeled as a function of the USNWR rank of each school along with other school and individual characteristics. Because Colgate’s applicant and admit populations cover a broad range of high-ability students with choices of highly and less-highly selective colleges and universities, our results are based upon choices made from a wide range of schools. The schools in our applicant choice set cover those ranked from first to fiftieth in both the liberal arts and national university categories. It also includes schools that are unranked and some regional colleges and universities. With such a wide range of schools represented we feel that our results are general to both high-ability students and highly selective schools.</p>

<p>The importance of the USNWR rankings is a hotly debated topic on college campuses across the country. Will efforts to raise a school’s rank increase their yield of the best students and improve their student profile? Our results suggest that there is a benefit to a positive change in a school’s USNWR rank. We find that full-pay applicants are more likely to attend a school that is higher ranked by even a few places. Aided applicants are less responsive, but still systematically prefer higher-ranked schools. More importantly, these preferences for the USNWR rank are independent of other measures of quality (student-faculty ratio and expenditures per student), and estimates of school fixed effects themselves. This would be less distressing if the USNWR rank were a widely accepted measure of quality. However, the measures included as components of the rank, especially the weights attached to those components, are somewhat arbitrarily chosen in terms of being measures of educational quality. There are differences in magnitude of the influence of the USNWR ranking across race and gender, but these are smaller than the overall influence of the rankings themselves. Also important in our results is the finding that minorities are more likely to attend schools that have larger minority populations, suggesting that programs or initiatives to diversify the student population make it easier to attract and yield diversity in the future. Our results suggest that admissions officers and other administrators concerned with the quality of incoming classes have reason to be concerned about their school’s USNWR rank because it is shown here to be an important factor in the matriculation decision of high-ability students.

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<p>ps..this report was apparently published in a peer-reviewed journal, Economics of Education Review
ScienceDirect</a> - Economics of Education Review : The influence of the US News and World Report collegiate rankings on the matriculation decision of high-ability students: 1995–2004</p>

<p>
[quote]
Finally, merit aid in general does not appear to influence high-ability full-pay students.

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In a groundbreaking study , researchers from Abercrombie and Fitch studied ten years of consumer data to determine the effect of coupons on high-ticket A+F clothing sales at full price. A+F is a non coupon granting retail store and has been throughout its history. The data clearly showed that those who had made the decision to consider purchasing A+F clothing at full price were not swayed by coupons. An A+F spokesman said they will continue selling $30 T-shirts. </p>

<p>A spokesman from the Coupon Council commented "Aberwhatsit?. They are not on our member's screen.They don't grant coupons. Did you see our name? Sheesh."</p>

<p>Btw, I love Colgate. It's beautiful , fit my kid as well as any school did, was the friendliest campus we encountered, and was extremely generous to my daughter. It is not Colgate I'm lampooning. It is the "study" and its conclusion that merit aid doesn't matter to full pay admittees to need-only schools. Duh.</p>

<p>Thanks, Papa Chicken, you find some very interesting links.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Finally, merit aid in general does not appear to influence high-ability full-pay students.

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<p>The study starts in the mid-1990s. The sticker price for top-tier private schools has greatly increased since then. I know a lot of families (including my own) that might have coughed up full price a dozen years ago if they had to, but are no longer willing to make it happen if there are good options.</p>

<p>What did a huge merit offer mean to my high-ability son? It meant he had been provided the incentive to make two visits to the school that made the offer, spend time talking to professors and administrators to check out his options and get a feel for the campus and its student life. Without the merit offer, this school was just a middle-of-the-pack name on his list. Once he investigated, he realized it had a lot more to offer than he previously thought. He is a happy freshman there, now.</p>

<p>As for rankings, he was never a rankings hound in any way. The school he chose is not the highest ranking one to which he was accepted, but that factor was completely irrelevant. </p>

<p>Based on my own circle of friends and acquaintances, I believe the "finding" about merit aid's effect on decisions is out of date.</p>

<p>The Avery and Hoxby working paper "Do and Should Financial Aid Packages Affect Students' College Choices?" showed that in their sample of students, giving "merit aid" as a named scholarship (the "Jim-Bob Memorial Presidential Scholarship") approximately doubled the influence, dollar-for-dollar, of a grant to a student in changing the student's college matriculation choice. Sure enough, these days every college that isn't run by complete marketing idiots applies names to all of its merit scholarships, the better to make the students feel good about enrolling in the offering colleges. </p>

<p>Maybe you can find the paper online. Because Hoxby (who used to have the paper posted in a publicly viewable directory) has just moved from Harvard to Stanford, I can't provide a link at the moment.</p>

<p>Vwa-La (sorry my French is not so tres bien)</p>

<p>Do</a> and Should Financial Aid Packages Affect Students' College Choices? Journal of College Admission - Find Articles</p>

<p>...just an article on the research, not the research report itself...I'l keep looking....</p>

<p>Vwa-la? Voila? </p>

<p>Good finds Papa Chicken. </p>

<p>I wasn't trying to turn this into a merit aid thread just thought it humorous that the sample was "full pay kids a non-merit aid school". LOL.</p>

<p>...some reports related to Avery & Hoxby, but I'm striking out with their original working paper (free copy at least)</p>

<p>FINANCIAL AID PACKAGES AND COLLEGE ENROLLMENT DECISIONS:
AN ECONOMETRIC CASE STUDY: <a href="http://www.jourdan.ens.fr/piketty/fichiers/enseig/ecoineg/articl/Liesenmeieretal2003.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.jourdan.ens.fr/piketty/fichiers/enseig/ecoineg/articl/Liesenmeieretal2003.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>CRAFTING A CLASS: THE TRADE OFF BETWEEN MERIT SCHOLARSHIPS AND ENROLLING LOWER-INCOME STUDENTS: <a href="http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/cheri/wp/cheri_wp71.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/cheri/wp/cheri_wp71.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>tokenadult, I guess the school my son attends is run by complete marketing idiots. His scholarship was just a no-name "merit award". At 40K/year, who would care if it had a name?</p>

<p>For us I think the rankings did influence where Mathson applied, but not so much where he actually attended. For him - it was the field of study rather than merit aid that most influenced the final decision.</p>

<p>I think the ratings are useful especially for those who are unfamiliar with colleges whatsoever. What should be made very clear is that clumps of colleges within a similar range most likely are not in any particular order. An 89 is not distinguishable from a 90. I wish that the colleges were placed in groupings rather than numbered since some who look at these ratings have tunnel vision about this.</p>

<p>As for merit aid, I do agree that there is a small segment of society that does not care about the cost. But just because a family is able or is supposed to pay full freight, does not mean that they are in the financial category that they are not going to consider a generous financial award. They may not be interested in going to a school they never heard of that is not rated well but if the school was on their list to begin with, the money will certainly be a consideration. I know of several kids here who ended up at Fairfield and Fordham though BC and HC were their top choices, due to merit money. Though money was not the main reason, it did play a significant role in my son's decision to go to a state school. Though he could think of reasons why another college was "better", he knew it was not that many$$$s better. A $15K award can mean a car on campus, not having to work in the summer, and breathing room regarding finances. Many folks I know wish they had not spent as much on college (usually with the first child) after they experience the financial fallout.</p>

<p>cptofthehouse - agree. Our son chose his state flagship honors college - with multiple scholarships over a few higher ranked privates. We are spending less than we saved for him - and that means we're saving one of the scholarships for him (for after he graduates). We'll also happily pay for study abroad during the summer. To us, it's a matter of trade-offs. We were lucky to have funds saved for college - but those dollars are not unlimited - and what's not spent on expensive privates can be spent by investing in our son's future - just in a different way. I come from a very modest background and just couldn't deal with the "cost is not a factor" approach. BTW, our son is happy and doing just fine with his choice.</p>

<p>I know several families who started out with the "cost is not a factor" approach and switched as they looked at the financial implications of this philosophy. (Yeah, I'm talking about our family here).</p>

<p>I know a bunch of people who were offered merit scholarships such as the Jefferson or the Robertson and turned them down to go to H Y or P.</p>

<p>BTW, the study posted included only one college (Colgate University) and is co-authored by a Colgate University professor. </p>

<p>It could be that these dynamics work differently at a different school. Colgate has a particular culture and tone and perhaps there is something about it and the students it attracts for which merit aid is not so important and rankings are important. In other words, students at other schools might be less impressed and influenced by college rank.</p>

<p>For some families for whom cost does not have to be a factor, simple intelligence is. If we find ourselves in the enviable position that Midmo did with an option of sending our D to a top school virtually free vs. spending $200k to send her to a school with marginally more prestige we will not hesitate to make the intelligent decision.</p>

<p>I am a little confused. For a survey of full pay students, the authors find that, over time, there is a good correlation between rank and attractiveness, and assume the latter is a function of the former. But what if the opposite is true - what if perceived attractiveness leads to an increase in rank? That is, the USNWR rank may be an extremely sensitive measure of where students wish to go, especially if money is no object? Isn't their analysis and result equally consistent with this model?</p>

<p>HPY are the most highly desired schools in the country. I think we all know students who turned down merit awards to go there. I also know families who encouraged their kids to go to the school they like best, and that school was not in the HPY league or maybe not in the top 10 or 25 , versus a school that was is not quite so highly rated but pretty danged close and offered aid. (I'm an example). So it does happen. However, many folks are financially savvy enough to weigh out the financial consequences and discuss them with their kids, and take money into consideration. As I said earlier, it may take them a child or two and a several hundred thousand to get to this point, or they may be there right from the onset, but there are definitely those who take cost and value carefully into consideration. There is an awful lot you can do with 4 years cost differential. True, the more prestigious the name of the college, the less likely families will balk at paying, but even HPY has those who regretfully say no for cost reasons. Those folks generally could swing the cost too, since those schools tend to be the most generous in aid packages. It's the merit aid that comes into play, most of the time when there is a cost differential or a state university.</p>

<p>One of my close friends paid for two Harvard educations. He's now hurting financially, and one of his kids is going to med school. He has found himself short on money on several things that he feels important, and he feels strongly that he should have considered the state honors program. Especially since there are a number of kids who graduated from there that are in the same med school as his son. He is singing quite the different tune than he was 7 years ago when he would sold his kidney to send his kids to Harvard, so important he felt it was.</p>

<p>I'm a little surprised at the relatively low response to the thread and this article. I think that the article does an excellent job at quantifying some aspects of the branding power that comes with USNWR rankings. Many have challenged or downplayed the existence of this connection and I am glad that there is now some peer-reviewed analysis demonstrating why (love 'em or hate 'em) the rankings are important and merit our attention and energy in these CC "debates."</p>

<p>I think my son was competitive for any school. He got accepted to every school to which he applied. I didn't even ask whether he knew about USN ratings before he applied or chose his winner--he didn't--didn't care.</p>