Does anyone know what the guidelines are for staying safe with the new variants? If they’re easier to catch, are the guidelines still the same or have they changed?
For instance, with Covid 1.0 (first version) it was unlikely to catch something shopping if one were masked, stayed at least 6 feet away from others, and was inside for a short period of time. I think I recall needing at least 10-15 minutes of exposure to be in “high” danger. Less than that was much lower risk. (Not none, but lower.) I assume masks, social distancing, and keeping hands clean remain highly important things, but what about the rest?
Nothing official, but I’ve read numerous articles in the past week about the recommendation to double mask or, better yet, wear an N95 or KN95 if you have to protect against the more transmittable variants.
Derek Lowe has thorough analyses on vaccine data, here is his take on Novavax and JNJ data. One disturbing passage in keeping with our recent posts here: " Novavax also noted that they were seeing people infected with B.1.351 who had already been infected with the earlier strains." B.1.351 is the South African variant.
Don’t forget staying out of enclosed spaces. In enclosed spaces, being 6 feet away may not prevent exposure if someone in there for a while is exhaling virus that is spreading through the enclosed space and cannot be diluted with outside air. That is why eating in indoor restaurants is one of the more risky common activities – you would be in an enclosed space for a long time along with other people in the same enclosed space for much of that time.
If the new variants B.1.1.7 “UK”, B.1.351 “South Africa”, B.1.426 “California” etc. are more infectious, then the time of presence to likely infection would be reduced. For example, if a specific situation were such that 15 minutes exposure would likely result in infection, then if the variant is 50% more infectious, it would need only 2/3 the time, or 10 minutes, to cause infection.
Note that B.1.351 is causing the most concern about reduced vaccine efficacy.
Does anyone know what the guidelines are for staying safe with the new variants? If they’re easier to catch, are the guidelines still the same or have they changed?
According to D1 the new guideline is “15 at 15”. No more than 15 minutes total exposure per day at 15 feet distance, including outdoor exposure.
does your D know of a cite for that recommendation, or is it just the local Health Officer trying to be conservative/safe? (I question whether the rec based on any science, particularly the outdoor part.)
I’m sure she does, but she’s working this weekend so I don’t want to bother her. I won’t be able to speak with her until the middle of the week.
15 at 15 is what she told me in early January when the variants were first being reported in the US. She also told me to double mask (surgical under cloth) way before that recommendation became widely disseminated.
She said outdoors was acceptable ONLY IF everyone present or nearby was masked at all times (meaning no removing the mask to eat, drink, talk on their cell etc) and socially distanced.
Probably conservative/safe and simple, rather than making a multi-step decision tree that most people (at least those trying to avoid COVID-19) will forget or implement incorrectly.
But it is basically the same principles as it always was, in terms of risk:
outside < inside or enclosed
greater distance < lesser distance
less time nearby < more time nearby
masks < no masks (obviously, type/quality of masks can matter)
The main difference with the more contagious strains is that, for a given level of risk, the needed distance is greater and/or the time limit is smaller.
Note that there is also a risk effect difference if you are in proximity to the same other person for a given amount of time, versus being in a similar environment where many others are transiently passing by at the same distance for the same aggregate amount of time in proximity. The former has a smaller chance of being near a contagious person, but a more likely chance of infection if the other person is contagious.
As a practical matter, most places with queues or waiting areas still have 6 foot markings rather than 15 foot markings.
But we’re they getting very sick? I thought the purpose of these vaccines is to keep people from getting very sick. None of them are 100 percent effective at keeping the virus at bay entirely.
I’m not sure the full data vs the South African variant…agree we want to prevent people from getting severe disease. For now, that link says 50% effective vs SA variant for novavax, which is markedly lower. I’m not sure FDA would approve a vaccine with only 50% efficacy at this point, but most cases probably aren’t the SA variant yet.
What’s most notable is that there are already variants that are eluding the vaccines…the longer it takes us to get the virus under control, the more likely there will be additional variants, potentially including ones that people can get a second or third time and/or ones against which the vaccines are completely ineffective.
So the statement that “it is not known whether the vaccines will prevent asymptomatic transmission, because the trials have not been checking for that” gets interpreted by many as “the vaccines will not prevent asymptomatic transmission”.
exactly. We don’t need people questioning the vaccine. Just get it when you can! Also, I feel like once someone has an opinion on this, it’s very hard to change.
It is unlikely that we will get the virus under control in the near future.
Could mean that people who want to avoid COVID-19 will have to get yearly seasonal vaccines, just like with influenza. The good news is that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines appear to be much more effective than influenza vaccines.
Moderna says that it is making a “booster” for the B.1.351 “South Africa” strain.
Of course, “boosters” or seasonal COVID-19 vaccines will have to wait until the initial vaccine backlog is cleared.