You seem to understand parts, which makes following your questions a little challenge. It will help to find a book or web site that runs through it all.
I found it useful to run the Ifap (above) because it gave me understanding what’s considered. Other than that, the exact school formulas are proprietary. Closest view you can get is by running NPCs for all the considered colleges.
No, they don’t usually tap the the full 529-type asset, out of the gate. But yes, it’s a numbers game. whose names are each of the 529s in?
“Meet need” - usually, the phrase to look for is “meet full need.” The schools we applied to used both Fafsa and the CSS profile. Schools come up with their estimate of your Family Contribution and remaining “need.” Then, they piece together FA. At that point, you have to take a good, rational look at the fine print. Eg, some meet need by adding in a student loan (which is not aid. It helps but it is neither a grant, nor self help like work study or the student contribution from summer earnings.)
“Qualified” retirement plans don’t usually count, you need to know if yours are QP.
Thumper has a valid point on the wife quitting. You drop your own operating income. Plus, our colleges asked for the tax return in the year the kid applied, plus the prior year, then a projection of the upcoming. (Eg, for current seniors, 2015 and 2014, a projection for 2016.)
So really, wife would be out her income for 2+ years just to apply for freshman aid. Since you reapply annually, then she couldn’t earn much while Kid 1 is in college. That can be a big loss, just to get FA.
All this is why you should be looking at schools that offer merit aid.