<p>@Esat936 let’s assume for the sake of argument that the “chance me” sites like parchment, cappex, unigo, etc reflect actual accepts/rejects with actual stats. (In reality the reported stats for rejects are probably inflated, but whatever).</p>
<p>Check this out:</p>
<p><a href=“Yale University Scatterplots | Parchment - College admissions predictions.”>Yale University Scatterplots | Parchment - College admissions predictions.;
<p>What color do you see in the upper right? Red. Underneath those red dots there are a lot of purple and green ones, but the fact is, acceptance to these highly selective schools for unhooked students comes down to some luck. For that upper right corner, there are probably 2 rejects for every 1 admit. So yes, you have a better chance than most students to get into Chicago or Brown and probably even HYP. But it is still a relatively small chance.</p>
<p>Tufts in particular is a crap shoot, since they are concerned that high stats kids are using them as a safety, as you appear to be.</p>
<p>For Brown, our high school’s Naviance graph illustrates this perfectly. In terms of stats, there are about 3 accepts a year, all high stats, surrounded on all sides by a swarm red reject X’s. The Parchment graph shows this as well.</p>
<p>Students tend to look at averages, and examples of other students with similar stats who got in to X school and tell themselves that they have a pretty good chance. Rarely do they concern themselves with the unlucky.</p>
<p>So good luck!</p>