<p>There are lots of conflicting sources our there.</p>
<p><a href="http://mathacle.com/college/Yield_to_Admit_Ratio_Class_of_2016.pdf%5B/url%5D">http://mathacle.com/college/Yield_to_Admit_Ratio_Class_of_2016.pdf</a>
42%</p>
<p>Yield</a> for incoming students – The Chicago Maroon
47%</p>
<p>1416 was roughly the expected class size (which I still thought was too big). Unfortunately, ~1500+ students accepted Chicago’s offer, so it’s yield rate will probably be ~46% or so.</p>
<p>We don’t know the exact number yet, though, because of summer melt. I think ~46% is probably going to be about right.</p>
<p>I’d be really happy if the yield rate was 42% and only ~1400 students come next year. UChicago can’t handle the 1500+ students they’re expecting. I doubt the class will dip below 1500 over the summer, though. So, yield should be somewhere between 45-47%.</p>
<p>The first chart says “expected class size” so maybe this was using last years UChicago class size of 1416 to hypothesize the possible yield for this year, whereas UChicago’s actual yield this year is 47% with a class size of over 1500 I believe. UChicago over enrolled again because they underestimated the yield, probably expecting it to be 42%.</p>
<p>The yield is 47% with an expected class size of 1,525.</p>
<p>[Admissions</a> yield for College grows to 47 percent, with greater diversity](<a href=“http://news.uchicago.edu/article/2012/05/18/admissions-yield-college-grows-47-percent-greater-diversity]Admissions”>Admissions yield for College grows to 47 percent, with greater diversity | University of Chicago News)</p>
<p>Cue7, do you think Chicago will drop its acceptance rate more than normal to create a much smaller incoming class to compensate for the huge class of 2016, or just try to admit an ordinary class of 1300 or so? Could we see a below 10% acceptance? I think that would be incredible, especially considering UChicago’s strange (in the context of competitive admissions) EA policy. I mean look at the chart, some schools have high ED acceptance rates in the 20%'s but their overall acceptance rates are tiny due to yield protection from ED.</p>
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<p>They will have to reduce their incoming class to compensate for the huge class of 2016. I do not expect the admissions rate to go below 10%. I think it will probably be a little bit above 10%. It also depends on the size of the applicant pool. Do you think UChicago has saturated its number of applicants?</p>
<p>The Class of 2015 is too big. The Class of 2016 will be even bigger. I don’t think the Class of 2017 will be extraordinarily small, but I’m really hoping the admissions office seeks a class of ~1300, rather than a class of 1400. Having another class would really push UChicago’s resources to the hilt - they don’t have the dorm space, rec space, etc. to accommodate classes of ~1500. </p>
<p>To keep UChicago’s vision of a college alive (which seems, from what I can tell, to be a “Yale-like” college in a major american city) they just can’t afford to have another huge class.</p>
<p>With this in mind, I imagine UChicago will admit ~2900 or so students next year, hopefully to keep the class around 1300. Apps may still be rising, so the accept rate will probably be around 10%, but probably north, rather than south, of 10%.</p>
<p>It’s interesting, if UChicago really wanted to reduce class size a bit, and if they estimated yield held steady next year at 47% (perfectly reasonable, given this year’s yield), they could get quite aggressive with the accept rate. Assuming apps go up 10%, and 28,000 students apply next year, UChicago could accept ~2700 students and have an accept rate of ~9.6%. Also, no, I don’t think UChicago has quite hit the ceiling with apps. For playing the big numbers admissions game, it’s still a little low for an elite urban mid-sized university. UChicago receives 25k apps now, but it should probably bump up to about 30k apps within the next 2-3 years, as the Nondorf marketing machine and US News boost continues to propel the school forward. </p>
<p>It’s incredible what a steep drop that would be. In about 10 years, UChicago’s stats will have dropped from a 40% accept rate and a ~29% yield to a 9.6% accept and a ~50% yield. </p>
<p>UChicago would go from a school in roughly the top 30-35 in admissions stats to roughly #8 or #9 in the nation (depending on how other schools do next year) within 10 years. It’s pretty crazy.</p>
<p>Here are UChicago’s 2003 admissions stats: </p>
<p>[Admissions</a> sees increase in College selectivity – The Chicago Maroon](<a href=“Behind the scenes of new exhibit, our reviewer gets Smart to the art of the print – Chicago Maroon”>Behind the scenes of new exhibit, our reviewer gets Smart to the art of the print – Chicago Maroon)</p>
<p>mathacle’s chart doesn’t use the actual number of students accepting their offers this year, and instead uses the number of students who LAST YEAR ended up accepting a spot in the class. It does this because not every school has released their yield for this year, and it wants to do a premature comparison of schools (at the price of accuracy).</p>
<p>It also assumes that every school that hasn’t mentioned it yet did not go to their waitlist. This is obviously incorrect, as schools like Duke and Penn likely went to their waitlist quite a bit, as they normally do.</p>
<p>In other words, mathacle’s data is incorrect.</p>
<p>Phuriku, nearly every school besides MIT and Stanford went their waitlists this year to the best of my knowledge.</p>
<p>Princeton, Brown and Northwestern did not, and Harvard only accepted a nominal number from the waitlist. </p>
<p>Waitlist use this year was significantly lower then normal.</p>