Is Class of 2026 An Outlier Year for College Admissions?

yeah I don’t know why anyone thinks AOs are accepting students who cannot do the work. AOs read the apps. They might be missing scores but the AOs use everything else to determine if a student can be capable and it’s not like they are handing out acceptances willy nilly. We know plenty of recruited athletes at top schools who we never thought would be able to cut it and they are fine. It’s true that some of them were given limited options when it comes to majors and some have things like mandatory study halls each week with TAs available to help, but they aren’t flunking out.

I’m kind of over posters here thinking that there are thousands of TO kids out there who enrolled in colleges where they can’t compete once there. Even before TO, lots of kids drop out of premed or engineering. Before 2020, those kids sent scores. They didn’t cut it either. Scores aren’t a perfect predictor.

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My D is I guess mediocre plus. 3.98UW, no AP test scores and TO to most schools in the top 100 range. She got it to all (Clemson, Udel, Pitt, U of SC etc) but Villanova, deferred EA, rejected RD. Her friends that have GPAs in her range or a little lower, and test scores around 1450-1500 and applied more to Top 50 are all getting rejected nearly everywhere. I can’t figure it out so I share in the confusion. Thankful for D, it worked out well in 2022.

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I assume those students getting shut out at your high school applied to schools with lower acceptance rates than Clemson, Pitt, etc.

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It can be true both that AOs aren’t “accepting students who cannot do the work” and that the top talent is more widely dispersed than ever. As you point out, there are always some majors where students can get by if they can’t do “high level” math in their heads. But those aren’t the students who will be hired by top Wall Street or consulting firms.

I know several recent MIT PhDs who are brilliant and went to undergrad schools that were not that prestigious (eg one was at NC State). 30 years ago similar people that I encountered had more typically gone to a famous undergrad school (and 60 years ago there’s the anecdote from my neighbor’s dad who was plucked from obscurity in rural Appalachia after winning the state high school math championship and told “I’ve called up a professor friend at Harvard and you are going there”).

If top universities are looking more widely to find the tippy top grad students then I expect top firms will have to do likewise.

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D20’s experience, I think, told the tale that admission is, more often than not, about something beyond grades and test scores. Yes, it was in “before times” but it was a precursor of what folks are seeing now. She was 20th in her class of 283, lower gpa (UW out of 100) than those 19, and the same “average excellent” ECs, but the 2nd highest SAT score in her class. Five other students in spots 1-19 applied to her top choice. She got in and no one else did.

Why? It was her strategy. She had a first choice and used that to her advantage. I’ll never forget the day we were there for an open house and she (who is afraid of her own shadow) walked up to the VP of Admissions and introduced herself. She asked pertinent questions and emailed him a note when we got home. She periodically contacted him with updates and questions and when we went back for a second open house, he remembered her by name. She ended up applying ED and emailed him to tell her when she had submitted it. He replied to her on a Sunday afternoon to tell her he would read it first thing on Monday. I think she was probably in the “yes” pile by lunchtime. Other classmates were furious that she got in because they deserved it and were ranked higher.

My point is, you never know what is going on behind the scenes. Who is visiting, what are they writing, whose attention are they grabbing? In a time where schools are getting in some cases double their typical number of applications, something has to stand out for those accepted, and it likely isn’t something obvious. I really feel for kids this year but it isn’t the fault of a kid that gets in.

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That isn’t always the goal, even for some kids who can do high level math in their heads.

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I agree with that. We can see a lot of terrific students every year on CC who end up at their “safety”. I don’t think it’s a bad thing that companies widen their search when it comes to top talent! If the pipeline isn’t working for those tippy top firms then they will just have to figure out another way to seek out who they want from other schools.

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And I would add that the majority of college majors do not depend on the ability to do high level math in one’s head!

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The URM “hook” is not what the posters here make it out be. Students need to qualified to be accepted.

Look at the % of the graduating population that is URM vs the numbers at top schools.

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Because it makes them feel better that kids getting acceptances over their kid can’t cut it. It’s gross.

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Agree with this. I know people who do alumni interviews for top schools and the amazing kids they see aren’t getting in. One friend was even told that there is some level of yield protection. I do wonder if schools aren’t being totally honest about demonstrated interest. Some say they don’t do it when I think they do. In your case, with your D showing so much interest and going ED, the school knew she’d come if accepted. Colleges have to balance predicting yield with accepting the kids they want. As I’ve mentioned many times, our D showed a LOT of interest in many ways in the RD round and I think it helped. When an AO knows the student via an interview or email or school visit and the student has shown very specifically how they will contribute on campus and how they fit, it puts them ahead.

Example: D “met” the BC AO on a call when he visited our guidance office in the fall she applied. She was ready. Had specific majors and clubs to ask him about. In Jan, after she sent her app for RD, she emailed him and asked If he had any interest in her sending her dance resume even though there was no space on the app. She reiterated which dance groups she’d like to audition for. He enthusiastically responded that he’d love to see it. Send it directly to him. And he also said he was happy to see she knew so much about BC.

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Well, I’ll give you some direct data. There are lots of current freshman students at Vanderbilt being forced to take summer classes. Why? Because in years past, the overwhelming majority of students tested out of the introductory English class. Something like 5-7% needed to take it. This year? They increased the class sizes and amount of classes for that intro course, yet many students could not get in either semester. They’re being forced to take it over the summer (at a fairly significant cost if they’re not on aid) because it’s a pre-req for sophomore status.

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To be fair, this remains to be seen. Many selective colleges have announced that they will review the data over the last few years and make further choices in the near future.

Also…there’s so much unknown. A kid who scores a 31 on the ACT is likely going to apply TO to a T20, yet almost certainly will be prepared to matriculate at a high level. A kid who scores a 19? Probably not.

My point is that I am not certain AOs are using HS data honestly. Maybe some/most are, but I highly suspect that some have a class makeup they’re shooting for and are going to select a class to fit that makeup.

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How would a student with a score of 19 have an app that shows he/she can handle the work at a top school? This is what I don’t get about those of you pushing against TO. That kid is NOT going to have a transcript, the rigor, the ECs, the recs, the essays to get accepted. When the score is missing, the rest needs to be impeccable.

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I don’t disagree…if all of those were equal. What I’m saying is I believe admissions offices have used TO to gerrymander their class. Lack of rigor doesn’t really hurt schools on their ranking, GPA the last few years is a dumpster fire everywhere, ECs the past few years are heavily discounted due to Covid, etc. Essays? Agreed again, but I simply don’t trust that schools are being genuine in how they’re analyzing. I think they’re comparing apples to apples.

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Graduation rate does affect a school’s ranking. If they’re letting in unqualified students who can’t do the work, those students won’t be graduating. Or if the schools do graduate those students, then the university’s reputation will be sinking among grad schools and employers who hire those grads. And thus the reputation score will go down and, thus, the ranking as well.

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Let’s say a student has A’s from his school in rural Wyoming. He writes a nice, sincere essay. His letter from Coach Carl says he’s real smart. They don’t have APs.

MIT cannot extend an offer to this kid on Coach Carl’s word. And what do straight As mean at Country Road Public High?

But if the student comes with all that and a 1520 sat, the option for him to be a successful student at MIT - rather than someone who quits in frustration - is substantially higher.

Schools want students to be successful. An objective measure of capability to thrive surrounded by similar students is invaluable.

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I think that AOs and schools want students that are going to be successful at their school. People look at outcomes, graduation rates, and retention rates, when considering schools. Every AO you listen to always says they want students they believe will be successful at the school.

I disagree on the EC front. Lots of kids were able to pivot and make the most of their ECs. Things have also opened up considerably in the last year. Sports were being played in most places and lots of other ECs figured out how to work. Worst times were March 2020-March 2021 and, even during that time, kids who wanted to be busy outside of school could be creative and do it. Kids applying this cycle have probably been able to do their ECs as scheduled for the last year.

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