I think it depends on any of a number of factors. IF the median is 3.7 and you have a 4.0, you seem to be solid when it comes to grades. So based on grades, the odds look good.
Then again, if the median for your major is 3.8, maybe not so much. If they’ve filled their class with legacies or tuba players or soccer players or whatever, again: not so much. If you’re out of state, it’s possible that they give preference to in state kids… or maybe it’s the other way around.
What I’m trying to say is that this whole process is about more than grades; different colleges have different admissions criteria that’s not always easy to discern.
Look at the Class of 2018 threads-- a whole lot of kids were denied from schools they felt were safeties.
The moral to the story is to cast a wide net. And to make sure that your safeties are real safeties: schools you really, really should be able to get into, that you know you can afford, and that you would be happy to attend.