<p>It’s not all about stats. But, for the most competitive colleges, the uber reaches, when the stats aren’t there, the bar for the rest of the picture is very high. Adcoms need to see evidence the kid can thrive at that college. That comes from the challenges he did take on and master, the thinking skills, perspective and values that come through. They take very few wild-a** chances. This isn’t about “nice.” The competition is fierce. Random examples of one or two who got in, despite lower than usual stats, can mislead.</p>
<p>If you believe your test scores fairly represent your academic ability, attending school where your scores are at the bottom of the range probably isn’t a wise choice, even if you manage to gain admission.</p>
<p>There are few schools where someone with a 30 ACT can’t succeed, even if that puts you in the bottom 25%. A 30 ACT is top 5% of the group who took the test, let alone the whole country. </p>
<p>People with 27 or 28 ACT can and do succeed at Harvard because there are few programs there that require you be smarter than an MD to get a BS. The work required for a BS/BA is pretty much the same everywhere, they don’t ramp it way up just because the average ACT is 32. Getting a physics BS (or similar degree) at MIT or Caltech is probably the only thing you’d really struggle at with a 30 ACT.</p>
<p>I don’t know if my scores really represent my academic ability. I like to think they don’t. I got a 30 (34 E, 32 R, 26 M/S) in April of junior year without studying, so I know I could’ve done better if I took the test again with extensive studying. My math scores were low because I’m only in precalc and there’s a ton I don’t know—I’m not going into STEM, so I didn’t think it was really that important. My second ACT (June) I didn’t study for either (stupidly) was a 29, unfortunately, but my English score went up to 35. Does that mean I would probably still struggle at an Ivy-caliber school while going after, say, a B.A.?</p>
<p>You have a 29 and a 30, including a 35 in English. That means it wasn’t a fluke. You should do fine at any Ivy-caliber school if you stay out of engineering.</p>
<p>There are few schools where someone with a 30 ACT can’t succeed</p>
<p>Totally agree. But you have to get the admit. You are competing for the admit.</p>
<p>Re: #24 and #25</p>
<p>Some “Ivy-caliber schools” have relatively heavy math and science general education requirements, even for humanities and social studies majors. Caltech and MIT are obvious examples.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Brown, an actual Ivy League school, has no math and science general education requirements.</p>
<p>Yeah, that’s something to consider. I just really wanted to apply to a super reach school, like an Ivy, with no expectations. I was trying to decide between Brown, Yale, U Penn, Emory, or Rice…but just one.</p>
<p>If you can manage to apply to 2 or 3, I’ve got a gut feeling you’ll get at least one Yes.</p>
<p>I got the impression OP is trying to look beyond “gut.”<br>
Realize that you have to get the rest of your app up to snuff, especially essays. Understand that competition for gals for some humanities depts is tough. Make sure your LoR writers will do you justice. Make sure you have plodded through their web sites, to get an idea of what sorts of kids they like, and so you can appropriately answer any questions that really want to see what you know of the school and your opps there. And make your best decision. I don’t see stars in your eyes- I see you trying to see if this make sense. Good.</p>
<p>I don’t know which school to pick…I would just do all three (Brown, Yale, U Penn) because I don’t have to worry about app fees (and three more score reports isn’t a big deal—unless it costs to send the CSS to schools you’ve applied to before being accepted/rejected??) and it’d be cool to have a chance, no matter how tiny, at all three. I’m just wary of my counselor wondering what the heck I’m doing. I already did most of the Yale supplement (the one I want to do for sure), and I think it’s pretty good. My recommenders are great—my Spanish teacher last year loves me and said I was one of the best of three honors classes, and my biology teacher from last year really likes me, too. Yeah, I’ll scour the school websites today. </p>
<p>The thing is, I have to decide by today because of my school’s deadline, and I don’t have much time</p>
<p>At this point, you can check CSS and check the colleges’ deadlines for FA forms. Don’t worry about you counselor. Make the decision that works for you. Some pretty good adult posters here don’t think this is terrible (I just want you to be informed.) I think you deserve a little more confidence than comes through. Don’t underrate or understate your ECs. And so on. Even the fact that you are trying to be rational speaks well. 
When you get to college, if you hit a pothole, be sure to get to academic support. </p>
<p>And be sure you have safeties. Let us know how it goes.</p>
<p>I wouldn’t worry about the GC either - and odds are, they’re rooting for you and hope you succeed. For you to get into a school of that caliber is a feather in their cap as well as yours. Good GCs will tell you when you’re being unreasonable, but since you have your other schools, I don’t think going for something like these is.</p>
<p>If the deadline is today, say you’ll be doing all three. You can always decide not to do one or two.</p>
<p>
Maybe… maybe not. While there is a correlation between ACT composite score and academic performance in college, many studies have found that test scores do not add much to the predictive ability beyond HS GPA alone. For example, the Geiser UC studies found including test scores only explained ~6% of variance in college GPA beyond HS GPA alone. The predictive ability of GPA + SAT I + SAT II scores actually increased if a negative coefficient was applied to the math and math II scores. That is, among students with a similar stats, a higher math score led to a prediction of a slightly lower college GPA. At the most selective UC campus, both verbal SAT and math SAT scores had a slight negative coefficient in prediction of grad rate, when considering HS GPA + test scores (writing was notably positive). </p>
<p>I’d expect these poor predicative ability issues to be even more true, if you only look at composite, as a 30 ACT composite could include a 24 science or a 35 science. Regardless of specific score, you still have issues with dramatically different levels of test preparations for different students. For example, when I took the SAT I didn’t do any preparation or even have a good idea what types of questions would be on the test (aside from the PSAT I took in the previous year). I’d expect most in my HS had a similar low level of preparation. I didn’t take it a 2nd time because I didn’t know that was an option without significant penalty. At the other extreme, some students have extreme preparation for weeks prior to the test, including tutors. Some strategically take the test many times and only report highest score (when permitted), or superscore highest individual sections across many sittings (for SAT). You also have situations were some students simply have an off day, so that their performance during one afternoon is not a good reflection of their performance for the next 4+ years. This includes things like letting nerves get the best of them or being physically ill. In short, I wouldn’t bet on not being able to succeed based on only a single test score.</p>
<p>I’m just applying to Yale. It’s the only one I seriously like. I know I have a .3% chance of acceptance, but eh. Thanks for all the discussion and help, everyone!</p>
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<p>That negative correlation for SAT math scores to college GPA was almost zero in those studies. I would not be surprised if the reason for this was that students sorted themselves into math-heavy, math-light, and no-math majors in a way correlated to their SAT math scores. I.e. the students who struggle with SAT-level math choose majors where their math struggles would not get in their way.</p>
<p>Note that a University of Oregon study found that SAT math had value in predicting success as a math or physics major, in that students with lower than 600 on it had almost no chance of success, but no such threshold was found for any other major for any section of the SAT. [[1011.0663</a>] Nonlinear Psychometric Thresholds for Physics and Mathematics](<a href=“http://arxiv.org/abs/1011.0663][1011.0663”>[1011.0663] Nonlinear Psychometric Thresholds for Physics and Mathematics)</p>
<p>That study does not appear to look at HS GPA. There is a good correlation between HS GPA and SAT score, so looking at just one, you can not tell whether the primary predictive factor is HS GPA or SAT score. The scattergrams also show that there were few math/physics samples at lower SAT scores, making it difficult to draw conclusions. For example, there appears to be only 8 samples with under 600 on math. Half of them had a respectable GPA above 3.0. One was above 4.0 and one of the top students in the program. The UC study looked at GPA, all test scores, as well as various other factors and found the following regression coefficients for GPA and grad rate of math and physics majors:</p>
<p>Math/Physics GPA – HS GPA: 0.35, SAT V: -0.01, SAT M: 0.02, SAT W: 0.11, SAT II M: 0.12, SAT II 2nd: 0.09<br>
Math/Physics Grad Rate – HS GPA: 0.22, SAT V: -0.06, SAT M: 0.06, SAT W: 0.11, SAT II M: 0.10, SAT II 2nd: 0.06 </p>
<p>For both GPA and grad rate, HS GPA had the strongest contribution by far. SAT verbal had a negative contribution, and SAT writing had a similar contribution to math. The negative math contribution mentioned earlier was limited to non-STEM majors that often require less math such as social sciences, humanities, and “general”.</p>