<p>What kind of class rank? Texas public university admissions are all about class rank.</p>
<p>OP stated her class rank is outside of the top-10%. Besides the Texas public U issue, that presents a pretty big problem statistically speaking when your reach schools have over 90% of the incoming class in the top decile of their graduating class. It’s been said on these forums that since this stat is weighted rather heavily in the USNWR ranking, and as colleges play the ranking game they’ve got better candidates that suit more criteria. </p>
<p>That said, don’t give up hope. Make sure the essays represent you as well as they possibly can and hope that the other parts of your application are unique enough to make you stand out. I am testament to the fact that selective private universities will still consider your application holistically- I was admitted to USC w/ merit scholarship and now attend UChicago despite being outside of the top-10%. It’s an awkward place to be in, so feel free to PM me if you have any other questions.</p>
<p>My family can afford to pay for my schooling</p>
<p>Oh good. Lucky to have parents who’ll pay $55k+ per year for college. :)</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Building on this…</p>
<p>You have a
36.8% chance of getting into one of your two most selective choices
52% of one of your 3 most
64.9% of one of your top 4
88.4% of one of top 5
98.4% of one of top 6</p>
<p>So you only really need to apply to 6 of your 8 colleges to feel confident about getting into a good college. Maybe even only just 5.</p>
<p>Ummm, no. 
I’m an English teacher, but even I can see the flaws in that math.</p>
<p>Oh, let me check my work, then.</p>
<p>The chance of neither Chicago nor Penn happening is .80 x .79, or .632
That means that there is a .368 chance that she’ll get into at least one of those two places…</p>
<p>Could you point out where I made a mistake?
Another way to do it:
.20+.21=.42
.42-(.21x.20)=.42-.042
=.368</p>
<p>Did I make a mistake in a different part of my post?</p>
<p>The only mistake you made, in my opinion, was assuming that admission chances can be precisely enumerated. I assume you used parchment or a simlar algorithm, but they cannot include ECs, essays, LOR or other factors.</p>
<p>Your math however is fine.</p>
<p>@Philo,
Your assumptions are flawed. A university’s overall admit rate is not the same thing as an individual’s chance of being admitted, which is strongly dependent upon that individual’s stats, hooks, ethnicity.</p>
<p>By “math” I did not mean your ability to perform mathematical calculations. I’m sure those are fine. It is the assessment of probability that is based on faulty logic. Think about it for a little while, and figure out why it makes no sense.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Parchment roughly computes all of those things. </p>
<p>But you’re right; I agree that in the end, a chance is a chance. Like everyone else here, my posts here are just that — rough approximations, an educated guess. I claim no more accuracy or authority about this than you do.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>None of this is based on overall admit rate.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Oh, come on. I explained my thinking. Now it’s your turn.</p>
<p>It isn’t my thinking - it is probability. They are independent events - you cannot add them as you have done.</p>
<p>Ah, but you can. Let me explain.</p>
<p>Say you want to find out the chance that when flipping two coins, at least one of the results will be heads.</p>
<p>Here are your possible results, all of equal probability:
HH
HT
TT
TH</p>
<p>As you can see, 3 of the four results involve heads. So 75% of the time, you’ll get at least one heads, theoretically. The two coin flips are each independent to each other; they do not affect one another at all. So you can certainly compute the chance of one of two independent events occuring. </p>
<p>There are other procedures for computing this as well, which are more useful the more complex your problem is:</p>
<ol>
<li>Add the probabilities of the two independent events together and then subtract the probability of the two events occurring at the same time.</li>
</ol>
<p>Here that would mean:
1/2 + 1/2 - (1/2*1/2) = .75</p>
<p>You subtract that last bit because it constitutes the overlap of the two independent events; leaving it unsubtracted would mean you counted it twice, once more than necessary.</p>
<ol>
<li>Subtract from 1 the probability of both events not happening. In other words, find the probability of two tails from one to find the probability of ANY other event occurring. All of those other events will include at least one heads (now think of this in the context of college admissions, with an acceptance being a heads). I find it easier to do multiple independent events using this method.</li>
</ol>
<p>1-1/4=.75</p>
<p>So with college admissions. Say I chance somehow for three schools, 20% at one, 25% at another, and 40% at the third. </p>
<p>The probability of the first not happening [P(1’)] is .8
The chance of the second not happening is .75
and the third, .6</p>
<p>To find the chance of all three of those events occurring at the same time, you multiply them.</p>
<p>.8<em>.75</em>.6=.36</p>
<p>Subtract that from one, and you have the probability of any other combination of events occurring (which consists of all events where at least one acceptance occurs).</p>
<p>1-.36=.64</p>
<p>Get it?</p>
<p>Yes but this is under the rather strong assumption that there is no correlation between admission to one school and another. That the application process is operating under perfect crapshoot. </p>
<p>If you get into one, that factor might mean your chances go up (even if insignificantly overall, very significantly versus the average applicant) for another similar school.</p>
<p>So if you don’t get into one, the admissions rate of all the other schools will drop ever so slightly. If you get into one, then your condition is met and the point is moot.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Well, there’s certainly a correlation, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t independent events. If my chance of getting into Harvard is 10% and then I get rejected from Yale, my chance of getting into Harvard is still 10% unless I do something to my college application that changes that.</p>