<p>Don’t assume the kid won’t get merit money at Michigan. According to US News, 33% of out-of-state freshmen at Michigan get “non-need-based” aid, at an average award of $13,736. An award at the average level would bring the total COA down to around $35,000, or roughly 30% cheaper than an elite private that offers no merit aid. You can’t count on it, of course, but you can’t reasonably assume you won’t get it, either—especially for an applicant with these stats. </p>
<p>Besides, just comparing tuition and fees at your in-state public v. an OOS alternative can be highly misleading. Tuition and fees are low at the UCs but on-campus room & board or off-campus living alternatives are significantly more expensive at Berkeley than in Ann Arbor. You need to look at net COA, i.e. total COA less gift aid (whether merit-based or need-based). And you can’t really make that comparison until you apply and get the offer.</p>