Wesleyan’s admissions is very holistic. It’s more than stats. Really, no one can really opine with any certainty for you. Look at stats on the acceptance threads for the ED and RD rounds and see how other students did this year. Personally, I don’t think many/any students can really count on Wesleyan being anything other than a reach unless a coach says he/she is going to bat for you. Coaches can give you a better read on where you would stand when they show interest in you.