It is getting competitive out there, I think

Did anybody else fail to appreciate the sheer number of students who have “top” stats in assessing your student’s likely chances of admission at very selective schools, like I did with my student? When I was applying to colleges in the 80’s, it seemed as though SAT scores over 1500 were very rare and that such scores provided a golden ticket to any college a student wanted to attend. Nowadays, it seems like students with “top” stats are rejected more often than accepted. Given the below statistics, I will be more mindful with my next student that the scores I considered to be very rare in my experience as a student are almost commonplace for today’s students. Coupled with many of the “top” stats students often applying to ten or more colleges, these scores are just not the rare golden ticket they used to be.

The number of students receiving scores in the “top” range of the SAT today is three to four times the number that received such scores when our children were born (or thereabouts). The College Board reports the following numbers of students receiving between 700 and 800 for the respective sections of the SAT and between 1400 and 1600 overall in the listed years. (Note that 2017 numbers appear to include only the New SAT rather than both New and Old SAT, which were both taken in 2017, so absolute numbers of “top” scores for 2017 are likely under-reported.)
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/CBS-96-National.pdf;
https://reports.collegeboard.org/archive/sat-suite-program-results/2017/detailed-2017-reports; https://reports.collegeboard.org/pdf/2018-total-group-sat-suite-assessments-annual-report.pdf

Year - Verbal/ERW - Math - Total
Score - (700-800) - (700-800) - (1400-1600)

1996 - 47,360 - 58,374 - NR
2017 - 95,445 (6%) - 120,043(7%) - 84,806(5%)
2018 - 140,614 (7%) - 202,088(9%) - 145,023(7%)

The number of perfect scores on the SAT has increased dramatically since we parents took the test. In 1985-86 nine students received perfect scores on the SAT; in 2017 about 300 did. I read somewhere that over 500 did in 2018, but I now cannot find that source. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-12-07-mn-1245-story.html; (The citation for the 1985-86 numbers seems solid; it is also notable that a perfect SAT by a student in Dallas was considered so newsworthy when we parents were students that a Los Angeles newspaper printed a story on it. 2017 numbers are difficult to find, as I think the College Board is not forthcoming with that information; I had to rely on a report from a commercial test prep source (link not allowed).

The percentage of first year students at Princeton in the “top” range of the SATs has increased since our children were very young. (Princeton was used as an example Ivy because it was the first one I found that maintained Common Data Sets for many years back.) Princeton reports on its Common Data Sets the percentage of first year admitted students that received between 700 and 800 for the respective sections of the SAT in the listed year as follows (see Section C9 of Common Data Sets):

Year - Verbal/ERW - Math
2002-2003 - 69% - 73%
2017-2018 - 81% - 84%

A test-prep commentator, Art Sawyer, has recently noted similar trends in test scores in his article “Great to Good: The Diluted Value of High Test Scores.” “With the release of class of 2018 results from both ACT and College Board, we can now say definitely that students saw the most competitive scores ever. In the last 10 years, the number of students scoring 1400-1600 on the SAT or 31-36 on the ACT doubled. In just the last 5 years, the number of students scoring 1500-1600 or 34-36 has doubled.” Link omitted in case not permitted by Terms of Service (but Google is your friend).

You have to go with percentage, not score.

I think that spread is too broad to call top students (31? 32? 33? No), so look a the top percentile for the numbers and that is telling enough. The difference in numbers in being in the 98th vs the 99th is enough a wake up call IMO. There just are not that many spots in top schools, or spots in great schools with merit.

Several factors:

  • The number of high school graduates per year is larger than in the 1980s.
  • A greater percentage of high school graduates go to college than in the 1980s.
  • The SAT was recentered in 1995: https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED563025.pdf
  • Compared to the 1980s, test preparation for the SAT and ACT appears to be much more common.
  • In the past, many strong students were satisfied with their local university or state flagship, but now there is more of a desire to attend an "elite" university.

@ucbalumnus yep I think that about sums it up.

Nope. Well aware that it’s tough out there (mostly because of this site), and targeting schools accordingly.

I think that the original title “It is getting competitive out there” is correct.

One of the things that I think that I have learned over the last 8 years (high school and university for my kids) is that we need to keep things in balance, and avoid putting too much stress on our students.

Here are two more reason:
There is no deduction for wrong answers, which encourages guessing. There are four choices, instead of five, for each question now. Therefore, if you guess A for every question without even reading the questions during the test, you will probably get a 800.

Hmmmm…you’ll get a perfect score (800) if you guess on every question??? Or you mean an 800 out of 1600?

I agree with @ucbalumnus - I graduated in 1987 from a NY highschool. I didn’t know anyone that paid for SAT test prep - and 2 of my friends went to Cornell. The vast majority went to a SUNY. Nobody applied to more than a handful of schools.

Now, almost every kid in S17’s class applied to an Ivy, BC, BU, Villanova, UVA. He has multiple friends who applied to 20 schools - and almost every single one of them had a nationally recognized name. People seem obsessed with the same 50 or so schools. S17 applied to 9 (which I thought was too many!) and was accepted to 9. All depends on where you are targeting. Just yesterday I had a friend shocked when her S19 was waitlisted at Villanova because “he met all the requirements”.

Only if you guess correctly :slight_smile:

We had test prep in the 70’s. But it wasn’t the rage.

But I think a core difference is we weren’t all gunning for tippy tops or tops, we recognized our class leaders and their strengths and were happy when they caught a great admit or two. For the rest of us, we were happy they got into colleges they liked.

This thread is emphasizing stats- just pointing out that it’s not all about those.

More prep now. The tests are easier. I think top schools pushed for easier tests so their holistic admission policy can be better justified.

It’s true that admissions folks can sit on various committees at CB But what little I know about that includes no voting authority, just input.

And since top schools look at more than stats- and currently reject the vast bulk of top scorers, it’s different than a rack-and-stack that just wants to inflate scores they report…

It is not just the “Elite” Universities. Schools such as UGA, Ohio State, etc are now much much more selective as well. Back in the 80’s, all you needed was a pulse to get into these schools. You are now looking at ACT scores in the top 20’s or low 30’s in order to get in. For many TOP students who are applying to the “Elite” Universities, these other schools become their “safeties” It is not unusual to find a large of these TOP students at these schools in addition to the excellent financial packages they are getting as well

Don’t forget the Common App makes it easier to apply to many schools

Actually, even when there was a guessing penalty, guessing had a positive expected value if the test taker eliminated even one of the answers. That was not that hard to figure out, long before AP (or other) statistics courses in high school became a thing.

“Therefore, if you guess A for every question without even reading the questions during the test, you will probably get a 800.”

I think that is combined score for the sections.

In 1985 there were just less than a million test takers, last year 1.6mm approx took sat and 1.9mm took ACT.

It’s simple math. There’s a lot more top scores. There’s nearly double the test takers and not that much increased capacity at selective schools. The stakes are higher and competitive forces drive improvements.

Students with a 1500 SAT and decent grades that I know get into selective schools. There is often a narrow focus that such kids and their parents have so that too many of them focus on the same schools so that it is mathematically impossible for most of them to be accepted. Especially considering that they tend to apply to multiple schools.

It’s also more common to take the SAT & ACT multiple times. That, along with the universal practice of superscoring, and choosing the test that you do better in, leads to more than 1% of the students getting a score that places them in the top 1%. It may be closer to 3% of students who can claim a score in the top 1%. I know that sounds weird.