I think an often underappreciated fact on CC here is that at elite colleges (HYPS etc) around 70% of admits are hooked kids. We don’t want to debate whether this is right or wrong as there are dedicated threads on the subject. But given that during earlier round the school tends to focus even more on fulfilling institutional priorities one should expect that the percentage of domestic admits to be no more than 30%, probably closer to 25%. A school like Princeton for example, could have as low as only 200 EA admits across US for unhooked kids. That is roughly 4 kids in a median size state. Assuming any college wants a balanced gender and interest makeup of the class you can have a situation where top one hundred STEM girls in a state competing for one slot at each HPYS.
If someone does a quick math like that he or she would see how extremely difficult to standout in EA round as an unhooked applicant. And a lot of heartbreaking outcome may be less perplexing if one is aware of such long odds.
I don’t think the red/blue state difference has any effect. Harvard still takes a disproportionate number of applicants from Massachusetts; Princeton does the same for NJ. The Ivy for which I interview accepted 8 students EA this season from the city in which I currently reside, with 6 million residents. In a red state. The odds are brutal everywhere.
I agree with post #100. I think instead of stats, for which one can emphasize the best parts for any applicant, focusing on the numbers really can help. I remember doing a very similar calculation with my son like the one you did - it helps put in in perspective when you realize they will have one person in a whole, reasonably populated state in a broad category like you. So it isn’t just your high school, or even your city, do you stand out across your whole state, and the whole country. Why would they take you over everyone in your high school, and all the other high schools.
I’ll be interested to see the numbers, but I don’t think the schools are getting MORE applications from Interntationals this year. At least from our international school - US interest has gone down, Canada, Australia, UK, Singapore has gone way up.
And please, when you are slamming the admission of international students - remember they are almost all full-pay and subsidizing the cost of the school for US kids.
@KnightsRidge The competition is GLOBAL not national. It gets more competitive as people become more desperate to hold onto that ring on the social ladder. She was a Penn legacy?
@gearmom My D is a Williams legacy who chose to apply to Princeton EA but would be very happy at Williams. She decided to apply to her top choice with no hooks (except for near perfect scores/grades/rigorous course load and solid ECs which I’ve learned aren’t hooks these days) b/c she didn’t want to look back and wonder “what if”. The decision was made a bit easier when the Williams AO she interviewed with this summer told her that the legacy preference would be taken into consideration whether or not she applied ED or RD. She scratched that Princeton lottery ticket but was deferred. So she’s now submitting her RD applications. She’s done much better than I ever did in HS but very likely will not have the college choices I did. Without a hook, it is a brutally competitive admissions environment for these high achieving kids espe from suburban upper middle class backgrounds who apply to the top 25 or so colleges. And it seems to get harder every year. Fact of life for HS students in 2017…
But she didn’t really have to sacrifice anything for her college choice, as Williams said they would still give her the legacy edge in the RD round? Much harder choice when the legacy preference only applies in the early rounds, or when there is no preference.
My sense is that the non mega donor legacy edge is rapidly becoming moot at these schools, the Ivies and near Ivies. Honestly they seem to have so much dough and their admission priorities have changed dramatically from the period when the parents were admitted that they really dont care.
@roycroftmom Agree that it is an especially difficult decision for say Penn legacies since their legacy preference will only be given during ED. I still think any legacy preference would have more of a weighted impact during the ED process. As someone posted previously, college admissions has become a real world excercise in game theory for many of today’s HS kids and their parents. The current environment contributes to the popularity of sites such as CC and the booming college counseling industry. We’re all hoping for the best for our kids, and CC gives parents and HS kids a place to vent and posit these questions to a (hopefully) sympathetic and helpful audience.
@KnightsRidge - I’ve been following your story with much interest and agree that the admission process is so tough right now for high achievers especially our young women with top stats. Sending your daughter good luck vibes for tomorrow night’s RD at Williams. She sounds very much like my DD. Fingers crossed!
@Twinsdad499 Thanks much and good luck to yours as well! Is she waiting on Williams? D is relishing her time as a 2nd semester senior and enjoying her friends and ECs espe her spring sport. Her entire friend group is waiting on RD results as none got into their first choice schools EA/ED. Hopefully RD will be kinder to them but things are shaping up to be espe tough this year with most, if not all, target schools reporting record applications. She’s noticeably more relaxed compared to the fall partly b/c she has UVA w/Echols in her back pocket and can picture herself happy there. Also, she knows she’s done everything within her control to get to this point so she’d be at peace with however things turn out (at least she says so now).
Update: D was accepted to Williams, UChicago and tonight Amherst and is still waiting on a few others. She is blessed to have these awesome choices but a tough decision ahead of her. She intends to attend each admitted student open house and then make up her mind. Williams is a different school than when I attended but would love her to follow in my footsteps. However, I told her to make the decision based on what school would be the best fit for her and her interests. It is her life to live not dad’s 2.0.
Congrats on the great choices.
Are you going to die inside a little if she picks Amherst? 
It is tough logistically to hit ALL the accepted student visits. I’d suggest she pick her top 3 once she has all admissions in hand and go to those. 24 hours on campus can be very enlightening and really make things clearer, for better or for worse.
d
Williams, Amherst and UChicago are the finalists (she’s already set aside UVA). Rejected from Ivies but also from some schools that would have seemed easier to get into. The college admissions process is brutal espe for high achieving UMC kids these days without a true hook (outside of Williams in her case) and a lottery seems an apt way to describe it. Feel fortunate to have great choices w/UChicago being so different from Williams and Amherst but tough decision lies ahead. D is now busily researching each school and reaching out to friends at each. She plans to attend the admitted students overnights and hopefully the skies open up during one and it becomes clear which one she will call home for the next 4 years. For now, she is truly undecided.
My D really liked UChicago and if we lived an hour from Chicago she’d probably be attending there. It’s looks like your D and my D have similar interest so I can easily see her picking UChicago. Great choices and good luck to your D.
@KnightsRidge Congratulations to your DD! She has incredible options! My DD was accepted ED to Williams so she is definitely headed to Williamstown. Maybe we’ll see you at revisit day!
@KnightsRidge congratulations to your D. I know she has a fabulous background, and it’s encouraging to hear strong candidates can get great options through RD. I have the impression in our community (private school) that kids have to make a choice for ED and that they won’t have options for selective schools RD.
@KnightsRidge Congrats to your D! I’ve enjoyed following this thread and am happy for your success. I visited Williams and Amherst recently with my junior. They both wowed us. Your D has a tough choice but can’t go wrong either way.
@Twinsdad499 Congrats to you too!