<p>Did anyone check out the data from the actual research publication? Look at the dark line (no control) graph from figure #2 on page 13. It correlates probability of graduating college against SAT scores. What is remarkable is that if a student enters college with a SAT score higher than 2 standard deviations, that student is about 90% to graduate. At 3 standard deviations, nearly 100% graduate. Compare this with students who are -1 standard deviation lower from average SAT. These students graduate at about 40%. If a student enters college with a SAT score -2 standard deviations lower, the probability of graduating drops to about 25%. At -3 standard deviations, the probability of graduating drops even further to about 15%.</p>
<p>This confirms that the SAT is a powerful predictor of whether a student will graduate college. Graduating is the single most important factor in future success and earning power. </p>
<p>As a low income family with a son graduating HS this year. SAT of 1920, 6th in class of 465, unweighted GPA of 97.2. All honors/AP classes, since 9th grade. Will be taking the ACT, and will prep for it, didn’t do so for SAT. </p>
<p>Fancier schools? Does that mean full ride? Because some of the “fancier schools” we’ve looked at we can’t afford. Having a kid get into one and then have the stress of trying to come up w/ the finances for it for the next 4 years is not something I want my kid to deal with. Do other low income families chose differently thinking they can manage it?</p>
<p>The Ivy’s, if they were to have a net cost for us of $5K - $10K, we could probably manage between DS working, his taking out loans, and us coming up w/ the rest. Those schools for us right now are UPenn, and Cornell. But does he fit in with the other stuff you people talk about, like hooks and EC’s, etc.; he wouldn’t qualify. He has toured both schools, and liked them, but in many ways he will be a fish out of water with the other students there in a social context. Just won’t have the money for it, or the background. </p>
<p>When you are low(er) income, even $5K is a BIG deal, so believe me, it doesn’t have to be all that high for some people to have “skin in the game”. </p>
<p>Our son needs to decide whether to accept an admission slot to an elite LAC or take a somewhat easier academic path at a university where he can also play his sport (but less playing time). We’re trying to balance what Gladwell tell us in David and Goliath with this study’s conclusion that…
“from the standpoint of an individual student, choosing to enroll at a college whose average admissions test scores are substantially higher or lower does not appear to help or harm her chances of graduating. Thus, other considerations in college selection, such as proximity to family and social supports, favorable financing, the availability of programs and faculty of interest, and personal preferences, might be more salient criteria to inform that decision.”</p>
<p>Regarding a student entering with lower than average SAT/ACT scores, I think that it really does matter whether it’s a student entering with ran ACT composite of 21 where the average is 23 vs a student entering with a 31 where the average is 33. Most likely the college with the 33 average is one where the graduation rate overall is very high and likely similar or even higher for Pell Grant students. Honestly I don’t think it’s the elite colleges lowering the standards for the lower income students, but providing them with the supports they need upon entering and continued stress free financial support which allows the student to concentrate on academics and not on trying to make ends meet. The college with an average ACT of 23 likely have lower graduation rates overall and even lower graduation rates for those students closer to the 25 percentile.</p>
<p>Laralei I agree that lower income students often have too much skin in the game. What others may perceive as small amounts can be overwhelming to some families. I would think that the ivies would have much lower COA and some of them are loan free for the lowest income families. Of course, admissions is extremely competitive so that’s the hard part. Suerose, if a student is admitted to an ivy, top LAC, etc., barring unusual circumstances, I wouldn’t worry at all about their ability to succeed. Acceptances are not handed out arbitrarily. They have high graduation rates and want their students to succeed. </p>
<p>All of the above is just my opinion, but it does seem to be supported by a lot of the graduation rates reported by colleges.</p>
<p>larelie- when finances are a large concern, apply to a range of schools. The “fancier” schools also tend to be generous with need based aid. If your son is accepted to one of them, they might possibly be less expensive than if he had attended an instate school once you factor in the financial aid award with the total cost. This can be estimated ahead of time but one often doesn’t know the exact cost until acceptance. </p>
<p>For your son, once you know his ACT score, it might make sense to apply to some private reach schools that meet full need. Since admission to any selective college isn’t predictable, he needs to also apply to colleges that are potentially affordable- in state, any programs for low income students- state and private- like Questbridge. There is also a thread here for automatic merit scholarhips to look at. </p>
<p>Thank you, SoMuch2Learn. Opinions like yours and this research is comforting. I do feel he’ll do well anywhere, but I also realize that, if not for athletics, he would not be accepted at these particular schools. I don’t want to set him up for failure in the classroom or 4 years of feeling subpar. Ugh, Malcolm Gladwell!</p>
<p>I don’t know much about athletics, but I thought that most of the elite LACs are Div III and don’t offer athletic scholarships. While they may admit an athlete with lower scores, I think that they still make sure that the student/athlete is appropriately placed academically. If it’s a Div I, then I’d look at his stats vs the college’s admitted students’ stats to see if he’s competitive. I’m surprised that he hasn’t had to commit to one or the other by now. If you want better opinions about your son’s particular circumstances, I’d post on both the college and university’s forums here and give some specifics. Other student/athletes might be able to speak to the sports, academic, and social culture on each campus. I’m sure he also got a feel for that when he visited.</p>
Note that the study is consistent with Gladwell. Gladwell and the study both found that test scores alone (no controls) were somewhat correlated with graduation rate. However, when the study added controls for similar GPA, curriculum, race, … then the correlation between test scores and graduation became quite small, to the point where the author says the impact of test scores on graduation is too small to be statistically significant. The ATU group section is relevant to a student choosing between a college with mid and high test scores. It found that among students with similar test scores and control variables such as GPA, curriculum, the students who attended colleges with high test scores had a ~0.3% difference in chance of graduating over the students who instead chose colleges with mid test scores… essentially no difference. There have been many other studies that also found little correlation between test scores and graduation after adding controls, so I’m sure Gladwell was aware of them. However, mentioning these studies would go against his overall conclusion and lead to fewer book sales, so it makes sense that they were not discussed in his book.</p>
<p>@suerose: so your son isn’t likely to fall behind academically at the elite LAC. Might as well choose the elite LAC. Name and network are always useful, and being an athlete at a brand-name school gives him a leg up on Wall Street. I assume money isn’t a concern?</p>
<p>@SoMuch2Learn : I don’t believe NCAA signing days have occurred for any sport yet.</p>
<p>PurpleTitan I was assuming, obviously incorrectly, that her son is entering college this fall. I thought that he was accepted to a university and then to an elite LAC. Clearly I’m wrong and he’s a rising senior, but I had no idea that athletes had acceptances this early. Now you know how I came up with my username. lol </p>
<p>That graph in figure 2 also shows that with individual and college level controls, the correlation between SAT score by itself and graduation is much weaker.</p>
<p>@ucbalumnus That is correct. The dashed line shows that whether a student goes to a over matched or under matched university, the probability of graduating is not much affected when the student’s score is within a standard deviation from the school’s average SAT score. The gray line shows that adjusting for differences in individual student’s SES and other factors, again the probability of graduating college is not substantial whether a student goes to a matched, over matched or under matched school if the student’s SAT score is within 1 standard deviation from the schools average SAT score… </p>
<p>What I wanted to point out is the relationship of uncontrolled SAT to probability of graduating, the solid dark line of the graph. This line shows that if you knew nothing but the SAT score of a student, you could predict what that student’s likelihood of graduating college just from his/her SAT score. When a student has a SAT score over 2 standard deviations from average of all students, his/her probability of graduating college is about 90%. If a student has a SAT score under -1 standard deviation from average, his/her probability of graduating college is only about 25%. Thus, SAT is a powerful predictor of a students graduation probability if the student’s score is very high or very low. </p>
<p>The graph also shows that change is minimal at the extremes and the predictability is not significant after a certain level of SAT scores at >= 2 SD and <= -1 SD.</p>
<p>This helps explain why SAT is still useful in the admissions process and why test optional schools do not go NO TEST. High SAT scores provide a lot of information with minimal work.</p>
<p>I’ve been watching this thread since it started a few days back. I noticed the “skin in the game” comment and boy, was it a head scratcher. Help me understand, </p>
<p>How can a kid, who is low income, most often had to long juggle work hours, demanding HS schedule, ECs etc have no skin in the game? Just because his parent has less $$$ to give? That student will oft-times have to work when he/she arrives at university. Let’s not mention how tough it is to fit in with the well heeled counterparts. Those who were bred for the elite schools since the womb. How about wading through the voices that say that said student was admitted because of a hook & assume that the student couldn’t be smart enough, just as smart as those who were handed everything from day one. So the low income kids, who realize that so much is riding on their success, has no skin in the game? Do the students with wealthy parents have more skin in the game because their parents can write a tuition check in one fell swoop? How is that skin in the game?</p>
<p>@ucbalumnus, If measures of academic aptitude/work ethic have any validity, they should correlate with each other. The test-optional schools don’t give up the other parts of the application, after all, especially GPA, courses taken, recommendations, and essays. </p>
<p>The increase in graduation chances associated with higher tuition was a small increase. Attributing it to better advising is only a guess, without proof. I would argue you could equally well conclude that higher tuition meant a more serious student body–that is, the student sitting next to you (and her family) chose to invest more money in education, and that the students from all income levels were more likely to have invested more time in preparation. </p>
<p>I think it’s important to remember the “most selective” is not the Ivy League (if I’ve scanned the study accurately.) It might be a more selective state college. Given the size of the data set, (420 schools), the colleges CC sees as most selective are probably a fraction of the colleges involved.</p>
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<p>“Selective” in this study is not “elite” in College Confidential terms.</p>
<p>Likewise, in a data set of this size, family income averages would approach the national mean–which is not able to “write a tuition check in one fell swoop.” As many colleges award merit aid, I would expect strong students who need to carefully consider a college’s cost would be likely to end up at “more expensive” colleges. As I scanned the study quickly, it seems the researchers used the colleges’ tuition and fees as a variable–but different students sitting in the same class often receive different tuition bills. I don’t see how failing to correct for the cost of college to the individual student can lead to any conclusion about college affordability. The strongest student, at the very top, could take a full-ride scholarship, while a middling student, or a strong student from a wealthy family, might have to pay full cost at the same college. The colleges post their rates–but each student in the freshman class might face different costs of attendance.</p>
<p>At the least expensive colleges, a tuition of some $1,500 might make the college attractive to students who are “giving it a try,” so to speak. Many students begin the college experience, but comparatively few students finish. The more selective a college is, the better its admissions team can select the students (from all income levels) who have the best chance of graduating. </p>
<p>I can attest to this in general - on my WashU tour, the student tour guide placed a ton of emphasis on how much she has used the student services at WashU (writing center, career services, finding internships/research etc.). </p>
<p>When we look at who has the option of going to “expensive” private universities, it’s either the poor or the rich. In any case there is tons of supplemental advising at affluent private universities that can help students who need the help stay on track with their peers.</p>
Note that the study controls included the following:
-Applied for financial aid
-Size of loans
-Size of work study aid
-Size of Pell grant
-Size of other aid</p>
<p>The tuition-grad rate correlation was notable among students who had similar degrees of the FA described above. While the control group numbers do consider more than just sticker price, it would be nice if the other aid control was split into grants and scholarship</p>
That would be relevant if colleges only considered the SAT score of applicants, and did not consider any other aspect of the application, such as GPA . However, no I am not aware of any colleges in the United States that only consider test scores. The important measure for test optional colleges is how much the SAT adds beyond the other non-SAT criteria that would be used in evaluation of test optional applicants. The study found that when adding controls for HS GPA, HS curriculum, and SES (among others), SAT score added too little to the accuracy of the graduation prediction to be statistically significant. Several other studies have come to similar conclusions, including ones comparing the graduation rate among submitters and non-submitters at test optional colleges.</p>
<p>Those controls all apply to the students, though? Which doesn’t tell us much about the colleges’ overall discount rate. It’s possible for colleges to list high tuition rates, but for few students to pay those rates. Some colleges list high fees, but then give most or all students discounts, i.e. merit aid. </p>
<p>The students attending the more expensive schools could be making rational economic decisions. Or they could be spendthrifts. Taking out loans to attend the Colorado School of Mines could be a great decision, but taking out the same loans to attend a college with a higher “sticker price” could be foolish. </p>
<p>Is it the income the colleges raise from higher tuition which makes a difference, or is it the correlated state of affairs, that colleges which the middle class perceive to be “worth it” are able to demand higher fees, or receive more funding from politicians?</p>