<p>Oh, please. Enough with the demographic bubble already. It has been discussed on CC ad nauseam, and it isn’t discussed more because it’s so unimportant.</p>
<p>The trough in US births has nothing to do with elite-college (or even moderately selective college) admissions, especially not in California. 18-year-olds are in the process of declining from a peak, but the decline is projected to total about 4% at its nadir. That is completely offset by (a) increasing rates of high school graduation and college attendance, and (b) applications from international students. California is, I believe, still experiencing net in-migration from other regions of the country, so even if you ignore the other factors the “baby bust” is unlikely to affect the UCs.</p>
<p>Applications to Harvard more than doubled over a period when the population of 18 year-olds increased 5-6%, and they have continued to increase in big steps while the population of 18 year-olds has declined slightly. At that end of the spectrum, there is essentially no correlation between the macro demographics and application numbers.</p>
<p>If you were president of a third-tier public in the Northeast or Upper Midwest, you would be very worried about demographics. But it wouldn’t be the national numbers that kept you awake, it would be the much sharper declines in your state. You would be planning your recruitment campaign in China, or thinking of other markets you could serve. Your colleague in Texas, however, would still be looking at rising numbers of 18-year-olds, with many, many more choosing to go to college.</p>