<p>What Hunt said. There isn’t really a good formula for determining “match,” when you’re a high-stat kid–choose a highly-selective school, and it’s a reach, whether you’re above the 75% or not; choose a less-highly-selective school, and you risk Tufts syndrome. When you’re applying to good schools, no matter how good a fit you think the college is for you, it comes down to what they think, and so far, no one has been able to predict what “they” think in a way that can be boiled down to a reliable strategy. Such a kid has to have a reach-heavy list, if he’s looking for a school that is commensurate with his academic expectations; he’s got to apply to several reaches, since the process is so unpredictable; and at least going by last year’s acceptances, some of these kids have better chances at getting into one reach than any of their “matches.” They just don’t know which reach will take them.</p>
<p>^I don’t know why people expect to get into all their matches anyway. I always figured reach was <50% chance of getting in. Match was anywhere between 50 and 90%. And safety was 90 to 100%. And of course my favorite - the best safety is the one you get into early whatever your initial odds were.</p>
<p>If you define reaches as anything more than 50% selective, a high-stat kid is going to have a hard time finding a match that is a fit academically. And then he risks not being taken seriously as a candidate. </p>
<p>It’s just another example of why there really isn’t a one-size-fits-all strategy: 2 reaches, 4 matches, 2 safeties, whatever.</p>
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<p>That’s why safeties are often best chosen from public universities, as they typically do not care about the applicant’s “level of interest” the way that “Tufts syndrome” schools do in order to avoid being used as safeties by students who are less likely to attend.</p>
<p>Big public universities often have a wide range of student academic abilities, so a high achieving student can often find a community of like-achieving students there, even if the overall average is much lower (or into parties, spectator sports, etc.).</p>
<p>That is true ucbalumnus. One of the schools I thought my son might want to apply to asked not less than 5 different ways why you loved them. Did you visit, did you attend a college event, did you request an interview etc.</p>
<p>I told him that unless he wanted to visit, don’t bother applying as I had read on cc how they highly value student interest so it would be impossible to gain admittance without making sure you had shown such interest.</p>
<p>I have an algorithm I posted in an earlier post (cited to not plagiarize)</p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1178468-need-college-list-trimmed-warning-long-read.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1178468-need-college-list-trimmed-warning-long-read.html</a></p>
<p>1) Basically, determine your likely order of preference
2) Using Naviance or some other method, estimate probability of acceptance
3) Assuming that everything is independent at this point, (and if you use Naviance, you HAVE removed the dependence on grades and SAT), calculate your chances of ATTENDING each school. For the one with the highest preference, it’s the admit rate. For your second choice, it’s the probability of getting rejected by your first choice times the probability of getting into your second choice, etc. This will allow you to estimate the probability of attending each school, and will give you some indication of what’s worth the effort.
4) If the probability of attending a school falls below a certain threshold (such as 5%), then eliminate if it doesn’t have a chance of being a top choice
5) Make sure there are two safeties</p>
<p>For most people, this method will lead to a reasonable number of schools (5-10).</p>
<p>^^^plus publics are often financial safeties too, esp in-state, if that’s an issue. We asked S to apply to acacademic safeties that are also financial safeties. One of his matches gives merit money too. His list is sort of like this: 2 lotteries, 3 reaches, 3 matches, 3 safeties. Certainly, the lines blur between the categories. When the dust settles, if I’m not too emotional 
I’ll be interested to see how close I am to calling it correctly.</p>
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<p>Impossible? That’s ridiculous. Showing interest increases your chances, not showing interest reduces your chances, but plenty of people still get admitted to plenty of elite schools without showing interest. Assuming that your chances go to zero is a mistake.</p>
<p>I think those questions are not just about how much you love them, but for them to figure out what things are most likely to get a kid to apply. It’s the marketing department asking the questions.</p>
<p>ClassicRockerDad, I don’t agree. This school is a safety for students who apply to Ivy’s so they have pretty high stats. After answering all the ways you love them then you have to write an essay that had more than the typical why school X? but more about based on what you know of our school then how would you … </p>
<p>A student would have to invest more of themselves into this application than what I’m sure many students do when they write their “Why school X?” essay but then tweak it for different schools.</p>
<p>That may be so Mathmom.</p>
<p>My daughter applied to one University and a specialized program at the University that was on rolling admissions. Her plan was to “sit” on all other applications until 1) she was accepted or denied at special program or 2) the deadline to other schools on her “short list” approached. She got her acceptance letter almost a month before the deadline of any other applications and she was therefore DONE! It was a school we could afford whether or not she received scholarships or not.</p>
<p>It’s not nearly as hard to figure out what is a safety as it is to define match and reach. Maybe the language just needs to be less categorized: apply to a continuous range of selectivity rates, with the additional factor of your own estimated attractiveness as a candidate. But then the problem remains of how many schools one needs to apply to, to achieve a balance between time/energy/expense and probability of success: what is the magic number that is prudent but not over the top? The more unpredictable the response from the colleges on one’s list, the more applications?</p>
<p>@Lakemom, I don’t know whether you’re talking about Case Western, but it certainly matches your description. If so, I think it’s an extreme case - a college that most people would rank at or near the top of private research universities, but nevertheless one that gets very little love from undergraduate applicants. It’s historically been a deep safety for the Ivies and a moderate safety for schools in the URochester/CMU/JHU/Vanderbilt/Cornell/Northwestern orbit (yes, I know that Cornell is technically an Ivy). Their yield was pretty bad - 17 to 19 percent - with an admit rate of about 70 percent. They replaced the admissions director last year, and the word on the street is that one of the new director’s specific charges was to improve the yield by admitting more students who really want to go to Case. If so, it’s apparently not working. This year, they got almost 50% more applicants than a year earlier, admitted about 10% more students (though at a dramatically lower admit rate) - and saw their yield drop to 14% and their freshman class drop by about 10%.</p>
<p><a href=“Division of Student Affairs | Case Western Reserve University”>http://studentaffairs.case.edu/groups/pdc/resources/doc/admissions_spring11.pdf</a></p>
<p>I agree with the poster who mentioned Naviance. I think it’s so valuable to have access to data for your kid’s particular school (while realizing that at this point, relatively few schools have it). The acceptance rates for certain colleges are considerably different for the one school than for all applicants. Also considered more of a match than a reach for S is a school that accepts considerably more males than females. The more specific your data, the better, imo.</p>
<p>Annasdad - I’m surprised you’d get your hands on what looks like inside info from Case. It’s actually one of my son’s top choices. We live in the south, so I hope geography helps him. He’s also applying to Rochester. We went to Case to visit, then went when they came to a nearby city. We signed up to be interviewed by an alum, but never got matched up. I called them and told them we couldn’t get an interview, and they didn’t seem phased by it. Especially when I said we couldn’t fly out again for an interview. </p>
<p>I’m not sure if I think that increases or decreases his chances for admissions. He went early action with them and should find out the 15th. However, I find it very odd that they are the only college where you can’t log on to a student account to find the decision, yet the kids are hooked up to the washers/dryers by internet to know when machines are free or your laundry is done.</p>
<p>Great points here! D applied SCEA to a “lottery” reach for which she is as well qualified as most and would be a great fit, but lottery nonetheless. However, it is a financial aid safety. I was able to tell her absolutely, “if you get in - you can go.” She applied to 2 admissions safeties / financial aid uncertain matches where she will almost certainly get in, but needs to receive enough merit aid to attend. One the merit aid is automatically considered with no further work, and one has an essay and interview. I cannot promise her that she will be able to attend if admitted. She applied to an admissions safety which should award very considerable merit aid, but it’s also not guaranteed. She is also applying to a couple state schools which offer merit aid, but it’s not guaranteed based on raw stats. She is not applying to state flagship which she would almost certainly get in, but does not give any aid. I would like her to try for one more reach/match that has better guaranteed aid but a slightly better admit %. I agree that it’s tough to find those schools that are just a tick down for admissions, but still financial safeties, and good matches. They are also schools where interest is more important to adcoms.</p>
<p>Determining reach-match-safety isn’t always so easy.</p>
<p>Sometimes it’s because a kid is “pointy” rather than well-rounded … how do you assess probability of admission if a kid is ~25%ile in, say SAT-CR and ~75%ile in SAT-math, or vice-versa? Or a kid with a sky-high SAT but low class rank? Or with high GPA but only middling SAT?</p>
<p>How do you assess probability of admission if a kid has almost all As, but the handful of Bs are in, say, AP math & science classes and the kid wants to go into a STEM field? It’s probably not the same as it would be if the Bs were in, say, foreign language or art. Or if they’re applying as a humanities major.</p>
<p>What if a kid has done well in lower-level classes, but finds that they are struggling in the AP-level their senior year (either because of increased course difficulty, or because of senioritis) – and that is going to show up on their fall-of-senior-year transcripts? That could take a kid who looked good up until that point and force them to re-valuate.</p>
<p>Then there’s the kid who has done well academically, but finds themselves struggling with the “Why College XXX?” essays? Maybe they are conflicted about the school (e.g., it’s otherwise a match but far from home). Maybe they’re just not an introspective personality, or maybe they’re not an effusive writer – but either way their essays aren’t quite coming together. A simple case of writer’s block could turn an otherwise “match” school into a “probably not.”</p>
<p>Alas, even if you have access to Naviance (and not all high schools offer that!), it’s seldom as simple as GPA=xxx and scores=yyy therefore probability of admission = zzz.</p>
<p>Yikes about Case - that is a school we visited for D, but it’s a very specific campus feel, and you either like it or don’t (she didn’t), which may factor into the yield.</p>
<p>Re: post #36</p>
<p>This means that the actual safety is community college, since you did not mention any application to a school that is both certain for admissions and certain for affordability?</p>
<p>@eyemamom, I too was a bit surprised when that document turned up in a Google search, because it does seem like inside information. </p>
<p>My D is also applying to Case and Rochester, although both are pretty significant reaches. We visited the campuses. I liked Rochester better than Case, DD liked Case better. She’s the one who will spend four years somewhere, so in the unlikely event she gets into both (with enough FA to make them feasible), it’s her call.</p>