Just brainstorming here. Given that many top schools are trying to decrease their admit % and increase their yield %, will more schools add ED2 (or ED3) or even binding RD (just made up that concept)? For example, will some top up-and-coming schools try to get the kids who tried for the very top schools early and were deferred or rejected to commit to some form of binding admission, whether called ED2, ED3, or binding RD? Not sure how many schools even use ED2 these days. I know NESCAC schools do. But could that concept expand to other top schools such as Ivies and other CC top colleges.
I am sure the colleges would like that, but I sincerely hope that it doesn’t come to pass.
ED (and all the variants) is great for the schools, but it really isn’t a good deal for applicants at all (because it shortens the decision window, eliminates the opportunity to comparison shop / bargain financial aid packages, etc.) The supposed tradeoff is an increased chance of admission, but the reality is that at most schools, this is MUCH smaller than believed, if it exists at all for most applicants.
If I had to guess at what will happen in the near future, I would expect that increasing numbers of applicants are going to use ED, and consequently the ED admit percentages are going to fall compared to RD. At some point, applicants will start to notice that the ED advantage is shrinking and the ED numbers will start to fall.
There was a time (maybe 20 years ago?) when ED really looked like it was on the way out - the Ivy league dropped it (although some of them now have SCEA) and other elite schools followed suit. I don’t know why the trend reversed - I’d blame the increased visibility of the ratings game and rising costs, if I had to guess.