My chances on each of these schools

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

Hi guys,

I am a high school junior this year. I am signed up for a website that gives a customized list of recommended colleges, so I did that and they returned a long list to me. There are three tiers, >90% chance, or safety school, ~50% chance, or “just right,” and <50% chance, or “reach schools.” Does the list seem realistic based on my stats? The list is very long, so here are just a few schools from each tier.


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90% Chance (safeties)
University of Alabama
University of San Francisco
Indiana University Bloomington
Loyola University Maryland
James Madison University
Texas A&M

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~50% Chance (just right)
Cal Poly (I’m super interested in this one)
UC Irvine
University of San Diego
University of Maryland, College Park
UT Austin
Virginia Poly
University of Wisconsin - Madison

<50% Chance (reach)
Georgia Tech
Colorado College
UCSD
Bucknell University

I am a white male and in a pretty competitive school doing the full IB diploma. I am interested in Computer Science/Information Technology and Business. My GPA will look close to this after the end of junior year.
UW: 3.05
W: 3.75
CSU GPA: 3.44
One notable part of my GPA: between first and second semester I was diagnosed with ADHD. I have been taking medication since then and my unweighted GPA is currently about a 3.5 compared to a 3.0 last semester.

Test Scores
ACT Composite: 34
PSAT: 1490 - This means I have a pretty good chance of being National Merit Scholar semifinalist or even finalist.

Extracurriculars
I row for about 17-18 hours per week. I have done about 120 hours of community service in high school. I also do a lot of work with computers, building and repairing. Finally, I am pretty into 3D design in my free time and eventually might get a 3D printer.

Work Experience
I’ve done a lot of soccer refereeing and did a summer job of city cleanup. Nothing extraordinary.

Sorry for the wall of text, and thanks for reading!

2

Your GPA will be problematic for Cal Poly SLO and UCI. I would not consider them matches although your test scores are very competitive. For IT , SLO and UCI could be matches but for Business or CS, they would be slight Reach to Reach. UCSD is a Reach. Your EC’s are very good and if write some outstanding essays, these could definitely bump up your chances at the UC’s.

3

Thanks for the reply! Do you think the rest of the list is pretty reasonable? @Gumbymom

4

It looks to me like the site you’re using really likes OOS public universities. A few things to keep in mind:

-If you’re OOS, your admissions odds at many public universities will be anywhere from 10 to 30% lower than the overall acceptance rate. In-state students fill many of the places - especially at unis like UT Austin, which must accept the top 7% of Texas HS seniors if they apply - leaving few for OOS kids.

-Can you afford to pay $50,000 a year to attend an OOS public university without NMF scholarships?

-Does your state have an affordable public university that’s as good as these schools, for a fraction of the cost?

5

thanks @NotVerySmart. UW is a great school and definitely on my list.

6

Other than the UC’s, UCD and USF are the only other schools I am familiar with. USF looks like a good Low Match/Match definitely not a Safety and I would put USD as a High Match (50/5) for sure.

7

I had a 33 ACT and 3.6 CSU gpa and got denied from Cal Poly Slo for business administration, which is less competitive than comp sci. I would put UCI and Cal Poly Slo as Reach schools.