Hi, so as most of you probably know, the scores for the November 3rd SAT just came out. So far, all I know is that the confirming cutoff is usually around that year’s PSAT commended cutoff. My SAT cutoff was only about 6-7 points about the 2018-2019 PSAT commended cutoff so I should still be considered for Finalist. But, I just wanted to know whether or not having a lower SAT score (that still made the cutoff) would affect the finalist decision or if the cutoff was just a sink-or-swim way to chip away at the scholars.
As long as you are above the cutoff, you should be good.
@Reebtoor Do you know anything about the required GPA cutoff?
Only the usual gossip/advice: as long as you don’t have Cs or below, you should be good. I think if you mostly have As (with two or three Bs and nothing below), the idea is you make finalist. But, no one really knows, do they?
@JustADood – My advice is to read through old threads, use a little common sense, and chill. 
Only 15,000 out of 16,000 make the next cut – it’s not really a competitive screen at all, and they are not looking to chip away at anyone. People go crazy every year sweating this part out, for absolutely no reason at all other than they are nervous until they receive an official notification.
Only 6.25% don’t make the cut, and just about all of them know they are not making the cut from the moment they are named NMSF, either because they didn’t complete the application for whatever reason, or because they know there are issues in their high school record (disciplinary, academic, whatever) that would be inconsistent with being named a National Merit Scholar.
One “C” in high school and an SAT score that’s a few points below your PSAT score isn’t a reason for you to be in the unfortunate 6.25%. A bunch of "C"s and an SAT score that isn’t even within a few points of the Commended student cutoff is an indication that your PSAT score was a fluke, and/or that you are a good standardized test taker but a less than spectacular student, and yeah, that’s exactly who they are looking to cull from the herd before naming the Finalists. Not because they are looking to chip away at anyone, but because they don’t want to dilute the award to the point that it only means you did well on one test on one day, without a record of general excellence to support Naming you a “National Merit Scholar.” They don’t have to get to 15,000; they just know, based on past experience and a very large data set, that that’s where they are going to end up every year.
It might help to look at it like this – it’s really hard to be in the top 1% and be named a Semifinalist. It’s almost as hard to be in the bottom 6.25% of that group and NOT be named a Finalist, especially when you factor in all of the kids who don’t move on because they don’t apply. And, as I already said, those kids tend to know who they are. The kids like you worrying about it every year typically have nothing to worry about. The kids with unweighted GPAs in the low 3s, with mostly "B"s and a few "A"s and a “C” or two know they are not in the top 1% of graduating seniors, regardless of their doing well on one test. Same for the kids with bad disciplinary records who are not going to receive a ringing endorsement from their schools. They know they are unlikely to move on to Finalist, and they are not shocked when they don’t get the magic letter. The rest of the 93.75% breathe a huge sigh of relief when the letter comes, as though it’s a high hurdle they are clearing, while in reality it was preordained the minute they submitted their application.
That’s the long answer to your question. The short answer is this – there is no GPA cutoff per se. Are you near the top of your high school class? If so, you’re fine, and no, you don’t need to be the valedictorian. On the other hand, if you’re closer to the middle or bottom of your class, and you don’t go to some special school where the median GPA is 3.8 and the average SAT score is 1500, then you’re at risk of not moving on, and you probably already know that.
Bottom line, if your making the NMSF cutoff is consistent with what you’ve been up to the past three years, you’re going to be a NMF. If it was a fluke compared to the rest of your record, you’re probably going to be in the 6.25%. The vast majority of kids who do that well on the PSAT have been at or near the top of whatever academic group they have been in, often since they started grade school, and especially since they started high school, and the small minority for whom the spectacular PSAT was an outlier are usually in the 6.25% (again, along with probably a few hundred kids not interested in chasing the scholarship who don’t bother filling out the application) the NMSC does not want to reward.
It’s worth remembering that the other cut that is worth sweating is that only 2,500 kids actually receive an award from NMSC,and it’s only a one-time $2,500. Better than a sharp stick in the eye, but not really significant in the context of a $300,000 sticker price for a four-year degree at a private institution. The other 5,000 ultimate scholarship winners have them funded by a corporation they or their parents have a connection with, or by a sponsoring university. If you just know you are not getting a corporate award or going to a sponsoring university, it might not be worth chasing a 17% chance to get a one-time $2,500 scholarship. Particularly if you anticipate receiving need-based aid, which would be reduced by the amount of the merit scholarship. Kids doing that calculation and not completing the application probably constitute the majority of the 6.25% not moving on.
My nepher didn’t make the cut, but only because he didn’t apply. That is the reason for most, or a failing grade or two in core classes.
*nephew