National Merit Semifinalist Qualify Scores -- Class of 2012

<p>WestIllinoisMom: as wemel has posted, there is no essay on the PSAT. The Writing is strictly MC questions. Moreover the Writing section on the SAT also has its score based on MC questions. The essay can only tweak the base score up or down, usually only by a little. And my own impression of the Writing section is that it has been pretty well incorporated into most schools’ admission considerations by now. Only a few explicitly say they ignore it. It has, in fact, been found to be a little better correlated with freshman grades than the other two sections.</p>

<p>I will ignore post #195 (GA cutoff) for now as “hearsay” unless the friend who reported it was a school administrator or teacher.</p>

<hr>

<p>PLEASE DON’T FREAK OUT! Check the explanation of the notation in the first post. When you see, for instance, AZ <= 219, that means that Arizona’s cutoff is no higher than 219. This comes from a report like, “I live in Arizona, made a 219, and got my letter.” When you see, for instance, TX > 216, that means that Texas’ cutoff is higher than 216. This comes from a report like, “I live in Texas, made a 216, and didn’t make it.”</p>

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<p>Remaining states that need to be finalized:
AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, GA, HI, ID, IN, IA, KY, LA,
ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND,
OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY</p>

<p>Updating IN, MS, WI</p>

<p>AL = ? (post #?, per GC/NMSC/other)
AK = ?
**AZ = 213 <a href=“post%20#126/#132,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
AR = ?
CA <= 225 (post #50)
CO = ?
CT = ?
DE = ?
DC = ?
**FL = 214<a href=“post%20#107,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
GA <= 221 (post #182)
HI = ?
ID = ?
**IL = 216<a href=“post%20#110,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
**IN = 214<a href=“post%20#147,%20#193,%20established%20by%20score%20comparison”>/B</a>
IA = ?
**KS = 214<a href=“post%20#87,%20per%20principal”>/B</a>
KY > 211 (post #111)
LA <= 216 (post #101)
ME = ?
MD = ?
MA <= 228 (post #143)
MI = ?
MN = ?
**MS = 205<a href=“post%20#192,%20NMSC”>/B</a>
MO = ?
MT <= 209 (post #90)
NE <= 215 (post #10)
NV = ?
NH = ?
NJ = ?
NM = ?
NY = ?
NC <= 224 (post #85)
ND = ?
**OH = 214<a href=“post%20#28,%20established%20by%20score%20comparison”>/B</a>
**OK = 209<a href=“post%20#106,%20NMSC”>/B</a>
OR = ?
PA = ?
RI = ?
SC = ?
SD = ?
TN = ?
**TX = 219<a href=“post%20#46,%20per%20principal”>/B</a>
UT = ?
VT = ?
VA = ?
WA = ?
WV = ?
WI <= 209 (post #166, #191)
WY = ?</p>

<p>10(?) Boarding school regions
No scores reported yet.
These usually are set to be equal to the highest cut-off score among the individual states in the region.</p>

<p>Internationals=?
This usually is set to be equal to the highest cut-off score among all the individual states.</p>

<p>Commended (national cutoff) = 202 (Class of 2012 Notification Letters - College Confidential)
Any person with a score equal to or higher than this cutoff who is not a NMSF receives commended status. This group represents the highest 50,000 scorers.</p>

<p>Another reason for volatility – up and down – in the scores is that the essay is so much harder to standardize</p>

<p>???</p>

<p>There is NO essay on the PSAT…none at all. Purely an objective exam…no subjective part at all.</p>

<p>CB2012</p>

<p>Alabama’s highest score in recent years was 2012…that was about 4 years ago.</p>

<p>Wow… My D has not heard yet. School started today, but she is 225 in CA, so it looks like she should be fine… I’ll let you know once we hear… Good luck everyone!</p>

<p>Yes, I will post again once I hear it officially from the GC at our school. However, for all of you Georgia folks out there, I am pretty sure my source is accurate…and that the GA cutoff is 218. And, if you were 217 or less, I feel your pain! </p>

<p>But let us remember that there are WORSE things and this is not the “end all, be all.” </p>

<p>We have much to be thankful for!</p>

<p>Forgot to remove IN and MS from the need-to-be-finalized list.</p>

<hr>

<p>PLEASE DON’T FREAK OUT! Check the explanation of the notation in the first post. When you see, for instance, AZ <= 219, that means that Arizona’s cutoff is no higher than 219. This comes from a report like, “I live in Arizona, made a 219, and got my letter.” When you see, for instance, TX > 216, that means that Texas’ cutoff is higher than 216. This comes from a report like, “I live in Texas, made a 216, and didn’t make it.”</p>

<hr>

<p>Remaining states that need to be finalized:
AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, GA, HI, ID, IA, KY, LA,
ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND,
OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY</p>

<p>Updating IN, MS</p>

<p>AL = ? (post #?, per GC/NMSC/other)
AK = ?
**AZ = 213<a href=“post%20#126/#132,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
AR = ?
CA <= 225 (post #50)
CO = ?
CT = ?
DE = ?
DC = ?
**FL = 214 <a href=“post%20#107,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
GA <= 221 (post #182)
HI = ?
ID = ?
**IL = 216<a href=“post%20#110,%20per%20GC”>/B</a>
**IN = 214<a href=“post%20#147,%20#193,%20established%20by%20score%20comparison”>/B</a>
IA = ?
**KS = 214<a href=“post%20#87,%20per%20principal”>/B</a>
KY > 211 (post #111)
LA <= 216 (post #101)
ME = ?
MD = ?
MA <= 228 (post #143)
MI = ?
MN = ?
**MS = 205<a href=“post%20#192,%20NMSC”>/B</a>
MO = ?
MT <= 209 (post #90)
NE <= 215 (post #10)
NV = ?
NH = ?
NJ = ?
NM = ?
NY = ?
NC <= 224 (post #85)
ND = ?
**OH = 214<a href=“post%20#28,%20established%20by%20score%20comparison”>/B</a>
**OK = 209<a href=“post%20#106,%20NMSC”>/B</a>
OR = ?
PA = ?
RI = ?
SC = ?
SD = ?
TN = ?
**TX = 219<a href=“post%20#46,%20per%20principal”>/B</a>
UT = ?
VT = ?
VA = ?
WA = ?
WV = ?
WI <= 209 (post #166, #191)
WY = ?</p>

<p>10(?) Boarding school regions
No scores reported yet.
These usually are set to be equal to the highest cut-off score among the individual states in the region.</p>

<p>Internationals=?
This usually is set to be equal to the highest cut-off score among all the individual states.</p>

<p>Commended (national cutoff) = 202 (Class of 2012 Notification Letters - College Confidential)
Any person with a score equal to or higher than this cutoff who is not a NMSF receives commended status. This group represents the highest 50,000 scorers.</p>

<p>Just got an email from my son’s principal today. We are in Alabama & he is a semifinalist with 219.</p>

<p>Eaglessoar, does your son know of anyone else with a lower score that also made semifinalist? I am in Alabama as well, but I made a 217.</p>

<p>Alabama was 210 last year. Can’t imagine it reaching 217 this year.</p>

<p>Darn. Well, it’s not the end of the world. But it’s annoying to know that the only thing standing between so many of us and a substantial scholarship was one or two correct answers on the PSAT.</p>

<p>Makes you wonder why so much stock is put in NMS program - why emphasize, and base scholarship $ on, a “practice test” for the SAT taken during junior year? Surely there are more meaningful measures than PSAT. It’s almost gotten to the point that making NMSF is less important in the admissions process than not making it - i.e., making it can’t hurt, but not making it can hurt alot - all based on PSAT. Crazy</p>

<p>Admissions process does nt place any emphasis on NMSF at a lot of colleges. Commonapp does nt even ask for a PSAT score. It makes a difference in colleges that do want to attract NMSF students and offer them major scholarships and admissions at their honors colleges.</p>

<p>It is interesting how many NMSFs end up going to colleges that offer zero money for getting that status.</p>

<p>Any news from CA?</p>

<p>Daughter got her notification today in Oklahoma and is NMSF with 218. Cut off in Oklahoma was 209…3 pts higher than last year! We are happy but sad for her two friends with 208.</p>

<p>got my notification today with a 212 in nevada.</p>

<p>Sorry - ignore this message; I meant to send it privately.<br>
No, haven’t heard of any other semifinalists in AL. My son goes to a small school & he was the only one to qualify. Speculating here, but with Alabama at 210 last year, I think your score should be safe. Hope you hear the good news soon!</p>

<p>has anyone from colorado gotten in with a 215 or lower? the wait is nerve-wracking.</p>

<p>I did a pretty detailed analysis of the data provided in this link:</p>

<p>[College-Bound</a> Juniors 2010 - PSAT/NMSQT](<a href=“http://professionals.collegeboard.com/data-reports-research/psat/cb-jr-soph/juniors]College-Bound”>SAT Suite of Assessments – Reports | College Board)</p>

<p>At first, I couldn’t find any stats that had a strong correlation with increases in qualifying scores. Now, I am seeing a clear pattern in the data.</p>

<p>So far there are 7 states whose qualifying scores went up by 3 or 4 points from last year. That by itself is very interesting since in the last 4 years, there were hardly any states that increased by 4 points. For 6 of those 7 states, there is a strong correlation with the actual raw number increases in test scores in the 75-80 range. This was originally predicted early in this thread, but there were several states that had high increases in these numbers year over year, but they didn’t have as high of an increase or any increase at all. So, sometimes a sharp increase in the highest scores results in a false positive. In those states with an increase of 3 or 4 points, their absolute numbers scoring 75-80 on any given test increased by more than 24%.</p>

<p>In some states, they had a significant increase in scores in the 75-80 range, but they also had a significant decrease in scores in the 70-75 range. These effects seem to partially offset each other and the qualifying score increase was much smaller. Wisconsin and Montana are good examples. Wisconsin increased its students scoring a 75-80 by 20%, but their qualifying score was the same as last year. It should be noted, however, that scores in the 70-75 range dropped by 23%. Something similar happened in Mississippi where the top scores increased by 30%, but the second high scores dropped by 40%. Mississippi had the same year over year qualifying score.</p>

<p>By checking the top scores and the second to top scores, you get an idea if the state will have a modest or extreme increase in qualifying score.</p>

<p>There is one state where this test fails, it is Arizona. Arizona had a huge increase in PSAT test takers and the year over year increase of students scoring a 75-80 OR a 70-75 actually went down. All things being equal, that would suggest that the qualifying score should go down, not up by a historically large number like 4. I think the only thing that can explain this paradox is that Arizona actually received far fewer National Merit Semi-finalists this year vs. last. This is despite the fact that it had a 9.4% increase in the number of test takers. Otherwise, the only other thing that can explain the data is that there was a large concentration of very high scorers on all 3 tests so that the qualifying score went up dramatically. </p>

<p>The number of test takers does skew some of the numbers. Illinois for example had 7.8% few PSAT test takers. Even with the lower number of test takers, they had an 8% increase in their absolute number of top test scorers. Their qualifying score went up by 2.</p>

<p>Montana is strange, but I believe it can be explained by the fact that it has small numbers that skew the results. They had an increase of 65% of top scorers. But, only an increase of 8% of those scoring in the top 2 levels. Given that they had an increase of 5.5%, it appears that the combination of scores in the top 2 levels better predicts the 1 point increase in qualifying score.</p>

<p>Well, I felt better after doing this analysis that the data actually doesn’t contradict the results we are seeing. In fact, in some cases, it can predict the range of increase. Try it.</p>

<p>*. Speculating here, but with Alabama at 210 last year, I think your score should be safe. Hope you hear the good news soon!
*</p>

<p>I agree. I think the largest swing ever for any one state was 5 points…and that’s rare.</p>

<p>* there were hardly any states that increased by 4 points.*</p>

<p>NextGen - Thanks for the idea to compare the data. At this point, with the number of test takers remaining about the same in Pennsylvania (increased about 600), but the number of people scoring in the top two ranges going down by about 1100, I’m thinking that (and tell me if I’m wrong) the NM qualifying score probably won’t go up, and if it does, not by much?</p>

<p>The peace of mind that would give me would be fantastic.</p>

<p>Using the data, you guys can tell how large of an increase there should be this year.</p>

<p>For my state, CA, there were a couple thousand more test-takers (which is a very small % increase compared to overall in CA) and there were small increases in 75-80 range followed by small decreases in the 70-74 range (and vice-versa). Therefore, it looks like the CA range will stay the same or increase/decrease mildly.</p>