<p>Just to show a numerical example on how increasing the percentage of juniors who take the test increases the cutoff score. Imagine a state with one million graduating seniors per year, and the state is allotted 10,000 NM slots. </p>
<p>In one year, 200,000 juniors take the test, and the top 10,000 of that 200,000 score 211 or above. Of the 10,000 semi-finalists, 5,000 score in the 211-215 range, while 5,000 score in the 216-240 range.</p>
<p>In the next year, 400,000 juniors take the test, and the top 20,000 of that 400,000 score 211 or above. Of the 20,000 who score 211 or above, 10,000 score in the 211-215 range, while 10,000 score in the 216-240 range.</p>
<p>If the number of graduating seniors doesn’t change, then the number of NM “slots” will still be 10,000, and so the minimum score will go from 211 to 216.</p>
<p>I suspect that the largest reason for the percentages of juniors taking the test rising AND the top scores going up is No Child Left Behind. Schools are devoting ever larger amounts of resources to preparing kids to take tests, and the PSAT in fall of junior year is perfectly positioned as a great practice test. The kids in the 200-220 range are very smart, and likely to most benefit from practice and from being taught good test-taking strategies.</p>