<p>Well, not really Mr. Bill. Let's take a closer look at the point... </p>
<p>First the initial premise: bluesky suggests that the experience of being at USNA is a monumental and risky challenge, fraught with trouble, pain and increasing risk of being separated, or using his word, "killed" in the longer run, illustrating such with the marathon metaphor. </p>
<p>My contention is not really. Thats just not the case, and stats reveal and confirm this reality....that once one makes it beyond Plebe summer, the chances of being bumped are virtually nil. The greatest likelihood of departure is those first 5 weeks, which are really 3 since all DORs must go for 10 days to 2 weeks into the company established just for them, to hopefully counsel and change their decisions. And I further contend that to the contrary, the likelihood or potential for separation trouble is drastically diminished as one goes on. As it should be. One establishes a track record, understands what is required for successful passage. And the stats illustrate such. </p>
<p>Again, using your numbers, even eliminating the median concept, put simply
35 will depart by summers end, and the time period will actually be closer to 3 weeks than the 5 I illustrated. Never again with there be a greater exiting of Midshipmen in such a brief period. I'll stand by that...</p>
<p>Henceforth, I suggest the remaining additional departees, which you note will be approximately 140 (175 - 35=140. ) will be separated over the ensuing 200 weeks remaining in their USNA experience... Your numbers, not mine. It is what it is. Yep, a higher number spread over years, months, many weeks. </p>
<p>But now you wish to say that those will be separated, for the most part over the ensuing 24 months (or approximately 96 weeks), i.e. from Sept, plebe year thru August of 3rd class year. You claim the remaining 140 Mids will virtually all be separated during this time frame and by that August or early Sept 2 for 7 signing. (In fact lets look at 2 real scenarios to see how close they are to reality. The most recent Class of 2008 admitted 1227 and graduated 1040, a 4 year grad rate of 85%, precisely what USNA reports. 187 separated of which we will assume, although it was more, that only 37 separated during plebe summer. This left about 150 over the ensuing 4 years or 45 months who would depart USNA. Your contention would be that 150 over just 24 months or 96 weeks... In fact, while we dont know how many of 2008 class had departed by the end of their 3rd class summer, we do have a glimpse using the current 3rd class. Thru mid-Jan, according to USNA records of current OOM Mids, they have lost a total of 87 to date, including 34 during Plebe summer . Using your formula, does it seem likely theyll lose an equal or greater number by August, 2009? Id be willing to handle any and all bets they wont lose literally more than 100% of those whove gone in the first year and a half. In other words, will the class lose another 87 between now and the Sept 2 for 7 signing. I doubt it. By May, 2011? Perhaps, if historical rates persist.</p>
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Well, they may be numbers, but that's not what they mean. Right? I didn't think so.</p>
<p>Be assured we are all proud of the challenges that Midshipman confront and overcome daily and over the course of 4 years. Their accomplishments are laudible. But no need to exaggerate or falsely inflate the difficulty in an attempt to magnify and distort the reality of those challenges that our Mids might be deemed even more worthy than they are...Mids in their most honorable commitments speak for themselves. </p>
<p>In summary, let me say this a bit differently..the longer one goes, especially after Plebe summer, the greater the probability that he/she will graduate and be commissioned and the time of greatest risk of "killing" is during Plebe summer. After that, with lots of work, USNA stats will confirm a Mid is a near lock to cross the finish line. The purpose of this site is to shed light on what is real for USNA candidates, interested parties, and parents, not paint this as some insurmountable mountain that only mine can scale. In fact, while there are many challenges, demands and accountabilities, those doggone lying stats show that virtually every one makes the climb successfully, once they arrive on I Day and make it thru the ensuing 5 weeks.</p>