<p>It is said that Naviance is a good way to see if your GPA is withing range for a college. I went on my school's Naviance and found that my GPA around the two students who have been accepted to UChicago from my school. However they were accepted in 2011 and 2012, when UChicago's acceptance rate was 16% and 13%, respectively. It is now around 8%. Should I still consider my GPA within range, or does the sharp drop in acceptance rate indicate a greater level of selectivity?</p>
<p>Two samples from your school, statistically insignificant. Ethnicity (White, Black, Asian, native Americans etc) plays an important role. 2011, 16%, 2012, 13%.</p>
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<p>You should count the green dots and total dots around your Naviance position, maybe +/- 50 SAT points, and 0.2-0.3 GPA points. Then use that as your probability of admissions. If there is a huge number of dots and only 2 admissions, then it’s very unlikely. If there are 5 total dots and 2 admissions, that’s about 40%. I wouldn’t assume that it’s getting harder to get in. You’re just trying to assess your chances. I think that this is as good of an approximation that you’ll find. It’s much better than College Confidential chance me threads. </p>
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<p>The same could be said of a Ouija board, loose, wet tea leaves in a cup, or the entrails of ravens.</p>
<p>Naviance really doesn’t tell you much unless you have a fair number of kids applying to a college over a number of years. I don’t think the admissions standards now are much different from what they were in 2011, say, but if you went back a few years before that, yes, there would be a real difference. Not so much, I think, that people with lower stats were admitted, as that a higher percentage of the kids with higher stats were admitted. </p>