There are two basic ways to increase the overall probability of getting accepted to at least one school in a list: a.) include a safety of 95%+ odds; b.) increase the total number of schools in the list.
In a typical list of 6 schools with a safety, if you replace the safety with low matches, you need ~9 schools total to equalize the odds (i.e. the safety is worth ~4 low matches). That’s why it’s dangerous to not include a safety: many students who replace the safety make the mistake of not using “low matches” for the replacement, and not using enough of them. These are the students who end up pitching a shutout. They start out by grossly overestimating their odds for each school on their list, then compound that error by either not having a safety or not having enough schools of sufficient probability to replace the safety.
It’s possible to achieve a 99%+ overall probability of getting accepted to at least one school by having a list comprised of 7 “coin toss” schools. However, that strategy can be catastrophic if the actual odds for each school are far less than the estimated odds. Overestimating odds in this game is really easy to do because the task is difficult and more time-consuming than most people bargain for, plus most kids and parents are naturally so full of hope.
At the end of the day, the most expedient and “safest” way to ratchet up the overall probability of getting accepted to at least one school is to include a safety of 95%+. With a safety, 6 total schools of varying odds will suffice, providing the odds are estimated conservatively. If you add a couple of “coin toss” schools for good measure, your overall odds should increase to 99%+. Voila, no gap years on the French Riviera or bagging groceries at the Piggly Wiggly!
Also, the admission decisions of different colleges are not completely independent events, since many criteria (high school courses and grades, test scores, etc.) are considered by many colleges. So assessing probabilities as if they were independent events may not give an accurate estimate, even if realistic (as opposed to overly optimistic) estimates are used.
In addition, it is not just the chance of admission that needs to be estimated; it is the chance of admission and affordability. Admission to a college that is too expensive is like a rejection. If the student needs a merit scholarship to be able to afford the college, the chance estimate needs to be based on the scholarship, not merely admission. However, this is often much more difficult to estimate than for admission if the scholarship is competitive (as opposed to automatic for stats).
^^ Excellent points. Colleges will often assess applicants based on the likelihood of attending another institution, so this dependency complicates things. And absolutely, a safety that is not affordable isn’t a “safety” at all. Any acceptance that is unaffordable is doing nothing for the applicant’s overall odds of attending.
I have to toss in my oft-repeated advice to the OP and others. Design your list based on who and what you are now, not based on what you hope your scores will be in a future seating for the ACT/SAT, or based on “predicted” GPA for first half of senior year. If a college is out of reach for you now, it is probably a reach under the most optimistic circumstances. You can always add a reach, and possibly drop one ultra-safe or low-match college from your list if you hit your fall tests out of the park, but you need to be ready to dive into applications at the end of the summer. You cannot afford to wait until you have scores in the fall. Most, if not all of the colleges on your list must be ones where you have some chance with your current grades, scores, and financial resources. The most-qualified students are those whose senior year will be loaded with high-level classes, demanding extracurricular activities, college applications and essays, etc. You ought to have a general, list of realistic college choices in place by the end of the summer.
If you have a pretty good idea, get ahold of a good guide like Rugg’s Guide and compare schools that are very strong in your areas of interest (could be more than one) with the size and location of schools your prefer.
From what you have said so far, I agree with Dickinson, think Haverford might be a reach, Davidson also a reach, Elon a solid fit, Bowdoin a reach too. St. Olaf a match, Carleton another reach.
The Trinity school mentioned up-thread was Trinity U in San Antonio, where I think you were thinking the College in Connecticut. The former is another solid choice, if you are interested in studying in Texas, and it is urban.
Rhodes is a match, also urban.
But the area of interest might help winnow down the list of prospective schools for you.
As of now, for which colleges suggested here have you filled out the “request info” forms?
Which ones appeal to you a lot, in each category (match and safety) that you need more of?
@MYOS1634 As of now, i have requested information from the following: Wake Forest, Davidson, Elon, Connecticut College, Trinity, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Notre Dame, Haverford, Hamilton, and Colgate.
I realize most of those are high matches or reaches, but I thought I would take car of those first. Later today I will be requesting information to schools that are more low matches / safeties.
I don’t plan on applying to all of those, but for now (as I’m scheming up a master list of colleges), I think I could use more schools in the match/target range.
Keep that for August.
But showing interest is going to be essential for your safeties or matches, because if you’re obviously a high stats applicants who hasn’t shown interest, your odds of being denied of WL are high since they assume you won’t attend and will negatively impact yield. So, start showing interest
One more thing, is requesting information/contacting regional admissions a strong enough method of showing interest if I am unable to visit some of these schools?
OP, you know that Wake Forest strongly recommends an interview, right? Did you interview while you visited? If not, and you can’t visit again, they offer interviews by Skype. But those fill up pretty fast (I believe this year all the slots were filled by November). So you might want to schedule one early.
connecticut college, on its common data set, has work experience as important. If i have very little actual work experience, how much do my chances dwindle of it being a relative target or safety school?
