I’m not an expert on Yale, which is not one of my DD’s reach schools, but I hear you. It takes a certain amount of arrogance to think your kid is Yale material, and the fact that you are humble is actually a sign of good character. I think the parents who arrogantly believe, “Of course junior will get into all the Ivies, he has a 1500 SAT!” will have it worse than we do come spring.
Try to think beyond your son’s numbers. He’s going to clear the basic hurdles academically, and he will need to write heartfelt essays that show his unique qualities and what he would bring to campus when he joins a club, study group, research team, or room suite. These things can come from his sports stories, even if he’s not the one with the best “numbers” for a sports scholarship. My older daughter wrote about being a wobbly ballerina, and wouldn’t you know? Her college has it in its “best essays” folder in the admissions office even if she isn’t a qualified dance major. What came out in her application was how she contributed to her dance community (one teacher still thanks me two years later for bringing DD into her life, not kidding) and her joy of dancing, even when her body couldn’t do everything her heart wanted it to.
Help your son come across as a unique individual, proud to be who and what he is, and not groveling for a chance to be worthy of Yale. To support him, you need to come across not as “oh, dear, are you in way over your head?” but as “you’re going to do great at which ever university is smart enough to accept you.”
My second daughter is trying for MIT. She could very well be in way over her head. I don’t want her to see that, though. We’ll also have her safety school acceptance (thank you rolling admission!) locked up before any bad news gets back from the EA round.
Good luck!