<p>No big surprise in the larger story, but what I find fascinating here is how sensitive these numbers are: +4% in applications, +4 percentage points in acceptance rate (from 39% to 43%), and +3 percentage points in yield (from 21% to 24%) works out to a 20% increase in enrolled freshmen. Do the math, it pretty much checks out. I think the surprise for Oxy was that they probably anticipated a lower yield due to the economic downturn; so to compensate, they raised the acceptance rate. But having already committed to that course, they were suddenly faced with a higher yield instead of the lower yield they had anticipated. Result: +20% more freshmen. They can probably adjust by accepting fewer transfers, but still it’s a sobering lesson: managing admissions given such a small class size is a daunting task, as even a small change in any of the variables can throw your calculations off. And when you get all factors three moving in the same direction—more applications, higher acceptance rate, and higher yield—it can have a huge impact on freshman enrollment.</p>