My DD22 needs to decide (should have already!) about whether or not to apply to Middlebury ED1. She loves the school but also loves another school that she probably has a slightly better chance of being admitted to. She is a solid applicant but I don’t know if she is more solid than any of the other zillion kids applying.
My concern is that Middlebury (and pretty much all of the NESCAC schools) are super overenrolled right now and that could potentially influence admissions - particularly ED when decisions are made this semester and the schools might have less of an idea how many of their students are going to be graduating on time, etc.
Does anyone have a sense if the current overenrollment issue is going to become a major problem for the Class of '22? I almost want to have her lean towards the other school (that didn’t have the same over enrollment issues) because they might be more likely to take a full class of kids.
Thoughts?
Overenrollment is going to affect admissions, at many colleges (not just NESCAC colleges). But why do you think it’s going to especially affect ED? Overenrollment is the result of uncertainty in yield. Since ED yield is almost certain, all of that uncertainty came from RD. For a college with an overenrollment problem from last cycle, it will most likely be more conservative in its RD admissions and utilizating waitlist more extensively this coming cycle.
I agree. I think schools that are overenrolled will rely more heavily on ED, not less. It will make RD tougher.
Thanks for the input - you are probably right. I guess what I actually mean is will it impact the number of students that each school is going to admit overall for next year (i.e. fewer class of 2026 bc they already can’t fit the kids they expect to be there next year (the '23-'25ers). For example, will Midd aim to have more like 500 kids in the incoming class rather than 600? I get what you mean about ED maybe not being affected as much as RD. I think I’m so focused right now on ED that worst case scenarios keep occurring to me.
I have also just heard more about the NESCACs being overenrolled, but I’m sure there are plenty of those schools!! Tough year to be a senior!
I think you’re right about this upcoming admission cycle will be even tougher. I read Midd overenrolled by 300 on another thread today. More students, like your DD22, will try to apply early (ED/EA), which, unfortunately, will mean lower early acceptance rates at all these colleges, even if the colleges still admit roughly the same number of applicants in their early rounds (which is what I guess they will do).
D20 attends a T20 LAC and the class of 2025 is overenrolled by more than 20%. The school really has to figure out how to balance out the next year or two. Housing is an issue, dining is a huge issue, library space is an issue, course registration is an issue. They have a required core curriculum and all classes need to be completed by the end of sophomore year while keeping sections capped at 15 students.
Don’t worry too much, the overenrolled colleges will get addicted to the additional tuition income. It will take some serious self discipline not to overenroll again.
I don’t know. There has been so much pushback because of housing issues. My D19 is at another NESCAC and they ran into huge problems. He is supposed to be guaranteed a single after freshman year and is currently in a tiny basement single that has been converted into a double. Luckily the roommate is great and they have been fine studying elsewhere, or I would be complaining.
So is consensus that ED might be same(ish) as normal but that RD is going to be rougher than even last year?
Vermont colleges in particular have experienced large swings in student demand. Consider how a cautionary 2019 article from the Boston Globe, which addressed falling enrollment, has been, at least temporarily, superseded by a current article describing over-enrollment at UVM and Middlebury:
In any case, as an opinion on your daughter’s decision, if Middlebury represents her first choice, she shouldn’t be deterred from applying there ED.
Some of the housing problems are because fewer juniors are going to study abroad this year. The schools are still hoping to have students go in the future, so they don’t want to take too few freshman because they don’t know what will happen in 2-3 years and end up with empty dorms.
In this case, I think that OP’s daughter needs to consider whether or not applying ED to Middlebury College would be a wise use of the ED option. It appears that OP’s daughter “loves” two schools one of which is Middlebury and the other is more likely to offer admission.
(FWIW: In a prior post in another thread, OP shared that he/she has experience “in admissions”.)
Exactly. My concern was that all admissions (even ED) would be lower at overenrolled schools. I don’t think her other top choice is overenrolled but could be wrong.
She also woke up this morning saying she is going to ED1 the other school, although we’ll see if she is still saying that later today.
And yes, I have experience in admissions, but have found that all rationality/sanity goes right out the window when discussing my own kid. 
But also thought others might be more on top of what is happening in East Coast schools - we are West Coast.
Appreciate the opinions and responses!
Has your D done a virtual admissions session with these schools? Why not directly ask them if they are overenrolled and if so, will it impact this year’s number of acceptances? Generally they take questions during these sessions, and anonymous questions are typically an option if she would prefer to ask that way.
She has done them, but not recently. And this just occurred to me a few days ago, but your suggestion is perfect. I might sit in on one and ask bc I think it is important to think about for these kids. Thanks!
Does the other school have ED2? She could ED I at Midd and ED 2 at the other school if unsuccessful.
We thought about that - that was her plan if she chose Midd for ED1 (kinda assumed that she wouldn’t get it). I’m not totally convinced ED2 rates will be that high, but still think she is a solid candidate there regardless. I think in the end she just realized she will be very happy either place (or really almost anywhere!) so she decided to go for the one less “expected”.
Midd is such a fantastic place - I think if it were a little bigger it might have won out for ED1.