<p>I wouldn’t hold my breath on that Kenyon full-tuition or half-tuition merit award, and I certainly wouldn’t withdraw an ED application to my first-choice school in anticipation of a big merit award from Kenyon.</p>
<p>According to its most recent common data set, Kenyon awards about $2.8 million a year in merit scholarship. Nothing to sneeze at for a small college, but remember, that’s for the entire student body, so it works out to an average of $700,000 per class. That’s enough to pay for about 16 full-tuition scholarships per class* if all the money went to full-tuition scholarships*. </p>
<p>Which, of course, it doesn’t. We know some goes to half-tuition scholarships. We also know from Kenyon’s CDS that in 2011, 81 freshmen received merit awards at an average dollar value of $12,123 (which works out to more like $981,000 for the entering class, but that’s probably because some merit awards are for a single year and/or some fraction of renewable awards don’t get renewed due to underperformance). So that likely means there were a tiny handful (1-5?) full-tuition awards, perhaps a slightly larger number (5-10?) half-tuition awards, and a bunch of awards that were much smaller. If there were 5 full-tuition awards and 10 half-tuition awards, that would account for close to 2/3 of the available money, leaving the remaining 1/3 of the pot to be split among the remaining 66 recipients at an average of about $3,000 apiece; so my guess is there are not as many as 5 full-tuition awards, nor as many as 10 half-tuition awards. </p>
<p>So, fewer than 15 full- or half-tuition merit awards, out of an entering class of 468. That’s about 3% of the entering class, or less. Those seem like pretty long odds.</p>
<p>That’s not to say it’s not worth pursuing, of course. It’s just not something I would ever count on, and certainly not something I’d radically revise my admissions strategy for. </p>
<p>The OP will either be accepted, rejected, or deferred by Columbia in the ED round. If rejected (statistically the likeliest outcome, given Columbia’s ED admit rate), he can pursue Kenyon and other schools in the RD round to his heart’s content. If deferred to the RD round, he will subsequently either be accepted, rejected, or waitlisted by Columbia in said RD round; if accepted he can do comparison shopping between Columbia and other schools (including Kenyon), and if rejected or waitlisted, he can still do RD-round comparison shopping between Kenyon and other schools (but not Columbia). If accepted ED at Columbia, he can either accept or reject the ED offer from his first-choice school based on the sufficiency of its FA offer. The only possible scenario under which he is arguably worse off as a consequence of applying ED to Columbia is if he’s accepted (somewhat unlikely) and receives a FA offer that his family can live with (likely, if admitted), but that is potentially smaller than some other school might hypothetically award (unknowable ex ante). But since Columbia is his first-choice school and ex hypothesis the FA offer is workable, it seems like the rational thing to do in that circumstance is to accept the bird-in-hand, and not worry about what might-have-been at some other school where the trade-off would be (possibly but far from certainly) more money v. whatever attributes made that school less attractive than Columbia to the OP in the first place.</p>