I’m also thinking of all of you in TX and hope the power comes back soon. It is hard to really grasp the situation of so many people trapped in that freezing weather without heat and water. My heart breaks for all those struggling to stay warm.
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Everything is icy outside, but no power issues, so I can’t complain. Primary issues are cough/congestion (I have asthma), but it’s manageable so far. I have a pulse oximeter which I obsessively check. Hubs is similar. Daughter feels fine. I hope dogs can’t get it. Thanks for checking on me 
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I am giving my school system a big A for effort in getting the first group of kids back into school yesterday. Even though D21 is staying remote, her 3 classes are with kids who can be in person.
Her Ap Stat class was supposed to have 9-10 kids in school only 6 showed in person. The no shows were online and said they probably aren’t coming back. Took 20 minutes to muddle through attendance and lunch orders- he rushed through the lesson.
Second class was chorus- no idea how many were supposed to be there, but 8 were in class and they spent most of the time talking safety. The kids who are in school can’t sing.
Last class is a PE elective- in a normal year the kids would go to an elementary school or visit the special ed kids at school. Everyone has been remote up until yesterday, so most kids have been on camera while my daughter plays games with them. Yesterday, the special ed kids who were at school were not allowed to be on camera- it was just depressing. Two kids were supposed to show up to in person, 1 did- the teacher sent her home.
Today everyone is home because of the weather. In total, every group of HS kids will get 18 days of in person. I’m at a point where I am not sure that the AP Stat teacher can get through everything with all the disjointed craziness. I hope the teachers don’t get disheartened when less and less kids show. It’s not them. It’s stupid Covid!!
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@rbc2018 I heard in a US news report that you can request your healthcare provider for the monoclonal antibody for treatment if you are within 10 days of getting symptoms and are at high risk. It’s supposed to be available to everyone and they have plenty of that supply.
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My doc said I’m not a candidate, but thanks for the suggestion. Maybe my asthma isn’t considered severe enough.
No this is our high school and everyone has a cell phone or iPad. If not I’m sure the high school would provide it. They already have school issued/subsidized chrome books that we get to keep upon graduation. Unfortunately they’re garbage so most kids wind up buying something better by junior year but need the chrome books for certain things hence they don’t give us the option not to pay an annual fee for them. Which is fine as we then donate them after to schools in need. We know we are fortunate for these things. I taught at a magnet school is the Chicago public school system years ago and while it was a top ranked school those parents and kids had no idea what they were missing out in relative to some of the suburban schools.
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DFW Suburb check in here! We lost internet for the last couple of days…lucky we still had power and water. Had one pipe freeze but I was able to thaw it myself and it didn’t break! My family and friends haven’t been so lucky. It’s been utter devastation. I’m too upset to even remunerate all the stories and losses. We opened up our house to the boys’ friends and I had three of my “adopted kids” come and stay with us while their parents tried to navigate the mess that was no power for 60+ hours and busted pipes flooding their homes.
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@rbc2018 I hope you get better soon! I thought to suggest monoclonal ab because of the asthma as a pulmonary condition but I’m no doctor!
@Momof3B Bless you for taking in those in need!!
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We are fine here our part of TX, had a pipe burst but not too much damage.
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Zinc & quercetin you may consider … also NAC if you can find it beyond the now obvious D3 and C. Big time hydration (I like powdered kinderlyte).
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@MommaLue I’ve had serious “survivors guilt”…we have been so blessed that we did not lose power at all except for like 2 hours early Sunday morning while everyone was asleep. We have water, no damage to our home…it makes ZERO sense to how someone who lives two blocks away from my house was without power for 60+ hours in single digit temps. Whatever I had, we shared. I’ve been loaning out tools and that key thingy that turns the main water supply on and off to anyone who needs it. Our community has really come together, but there need to be some answers and consequences for the agencies and politicians who put us in this mess and literally played with people’s lives.
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Another well wisher here for those in TX. Best wishes to ya.
My D21 has played a Spring varsity sport her first 3 years of HS. Last year, when Covid hit, her HS team was undefeated and the rest of the season was obviously cancelled.
But in a bit of good news, “conditioning pods” are starting 3/1, which is awesome and there’s still a chance for a shortened season. I doubt it, but it would be nice.
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There is a good thread on twitter from Oregon States director of enrollment management Jon Boeckenstedt. CC doesn’t allow links to twitter, so I’ll post some of the best points. It’s worth finding if you’re on twitter though.
There are no reliable trends. We have anecdotes. Harvard up 57%. Colgate up 102%.
Princeton ended up 15% ahead of last year, probably because they dropped all early options in response to COVID-19.
Refer to this tweet if you ever ask why colleges keep early plans.
Harvard up 57% and Princeton up only 15% shows how important the early round is.
I’m luckier than some of my colleagues, who have to hit a number right on. If we over-enroll a bit, we’re large enough to absorb it without too much trouble.
But at some super-selectives, going under your number is actually better than going over. Not here. Not most places.
Of course, apps in admissions are like shots in golf: Drive for show; putt for dough. Except in EM it’s apps and yield.
Your yield is based on whom you admit; and how many and whom you admit is based on your yield. This is the great paradox of EM.
Read that again.
Great point that to colleges it’s all about yield and the class that actually enrolls. Tough to predict!
So, how do you predict yield? Almost all the tools we have are gone: No high school visits. No yield events. No fall visit programs. FAFSA position was nuked several years ago (don’t get me started on that).
And no SAT scores, or at least not for all students.
You read that right. The SAT was essentially useless in predicting anything about a specific student academically; but it was a good tool to use in predicting yield. Why?
EZ. Because society told students it was meaningful. So it drove app patterns, expectations, entitlement.
And all those things drove behavior.
What about net price? That too is an extraordinarily valuable predictor of yield. (Note to economists: Lower prices cause people to differentiate).
But at many schools, net price was driven by two things colleges have wanted to maximize:
GPA and SAT. We know the SAT is out, so many institutions are awarding merit aid on the basis of GPA. Well, that works, right?
Um, usually. In most years without pandemics. But GPA is probably less meaningful this year, for a lot of reasons beyond the control of students.
So, when I say none of us in EM know what in the hell to expect, or how to estimate what we can expect, I’m not exaggerating.
One final thing: How many apps are hedges against unanticipated COVID-19 developments? If you have a waitlist a mile long, you don’t need to care.
Oh, your admit rate might go a bit higher, but you’ll make your class.
If you don’t have that waitlist, you probably have just one chance to get it right.
(Aside: Now you know how 17-year-olds feel applying to college).
Then a couple tweets about how it’s like landing an airplane in a storm without instruments.
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my son is also burned out on virtual everything-
I really hope there can be in person orientations this summer virtual just won’t cut it…
Unfortunately there are some AP Subjects that only allow in-person testing: AP Stats and AP Chinese are the 2 that my DS have to go in person to take because their is no At Home option in any of the 3 Administrations.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing
Jon seems quite astute and provided some of the best overall insights this admissions season. Thanks.
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I saw this on Twitter, too.
What does he mean by “FAFSA position” being “nuked several years ago”?
I think FAFSA used to have student rank schools to which they had applied. Lots of pressure on student.
OMG! Thank goodness that isn’t required anymore!
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