Maybe that is it? I thought it was strange that the school would release two colleges in late May as options. . . Perhaps it is an appeal of financial aid as well.
I know some schools were trying to reduce on-campus density last fall, so that could be one reason.
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AFAIK, some schools that encouraged gap years last year did so in order to make it easier to reduce density on campus and house students in singles, e.g., Williams invited all classes back to campus and put everyone in singles. Also, I imagine that small, remote, and residential schools were concerned about having more juniors on campus than usual since many study abroad programs were canceled. City and suburban schools may have been able to house students at nearby hotels, motels, etc., but these options are often not available at more rural schools.
Stanford ended up going fully remote for the fall, but made that decision close to the start of first quarter. IIRC, their initial plan had first years on campus for fall quarter, but not on campus 2nd quarter, then back on campus in the spring or summer, which meant a lot of moving in and out. I know a couple of people who decided to take a gap year after hearing this plan.
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Many highly ranked schools encouraged gap years knowing that school was not going to be the same during Covid. They could also afford it if kids took a break. Itâs a perk at these top schools. They granted unlimited gap years. Most schools had limits on the number of kids they would allow to gap or told everyone no. UCs donât allow kids to take gap years at all.
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It seems pretty clear to me that gap/defer years had a sizable impact on this years over-enrollments or, at the very least, minimal use of waitlists. If you combine the number of 2020 students that elected a gap option from all T20 schools, it is significant, and it trickles down. I also have heard that AOâs used historic yield estimates for the number of 2020 grads who deferred enrollment that would return in 2021, when, if fact, that yield was much higher than historical standards. Again, trickles down.
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I donât know of any that âencouragedâ that. I know many students (my kid is 2020⊠I follow this topic because he withdrew from his last yearâs choice and is transferring) who requested deferrals in 2020 and were denied. Several schools I heard of specifically stated that deferrals due to covid would be denied, even before it was requested. Last spring was the height of unknowns with covid, and colleges and universities were panicked. I do know of one kid who was granted a deferral from Cal Poly, which was really surprising and great for him. He actually had a plan (traveled, took outdoor leadership courses, etc.).
I think youâre right. The âtrickle downâ part is important to think about. The situation with Williams will also impact other selective liberal arts colleges down the line.
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I would say any college that was still granting gap years into late July (of which Bowdoin was one) was being generous with gap years. They didnât think it was right to force kids to take remote classes and could afford the dip in tuition and room and board fees. Not many in that category for sure. Anyone who wanted a gap year was allowed to take one at Bowdoin, Amherst, Williams, HarvardâŠmany others. This included all grades, not just incoming freshmen. In fact, I believe that juniors were the largest group at Bowdoin taking a break.
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Just one example, but last year Michigan granted 217 student deferments for out-of-state first-year students, which was about as many as the past five years combined. Michigan said in their statement that the increase in deferments granted would not impact admission offers for the 2021âs. For a class of around 7,000 students, 217 deferments is a drop in the bucket, but then WL movement has been slow this year so far.
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I doubt double deposits are playing a significant role. Just some hypothetical numbers: 1800 targeted freshman enrollment at a T20 school. 60% ED and locked in. Half of the remaining accepted/deposited kids are happy and in love with their school choice. That only leaves 360 kids on the fence. Even if 1 in 5 of those kids is double depositedâand that would be a lotâweâre talking about 72 kids. And weâd expect them to break 50/50 on their double deposit choice if they donât get discovered. 36 spots is not a lot of exposure in a class of 1800.
What is serious exposure are visa issues, vax requirements/resistance for maybe 5% of all 1800 kids who accepted a spot, waitlists attracting the 360 kids who have deposited after RD acceptance but arenât fully committed to school X in their minds, subsequent revision to dorm capacity guidance, gap/deferral year melt/second guessing. Thereâs a lot of additional volatility in what are typically fairly well understood variables.
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It will be interesting to see how it plays out! Michigan is reporting on deferments but this doesnât take into account students who were admitted but chose to decline admission because a deferment wasnât granted. Or students who just plain old chose to ride out the pandemic in some other way.
In our circle, the majority of students are doing something different than planned a year ago. Some headed to college as freshman, after a gap year. Some transferring after a terrible year of remote learning. Some transferring after a year of community college, after results from 2020 applications were less than they dreamed. A few heading to college for the first time, after doing their freshman year at home/remote. And a few returning to campuses, with the hope that they can go to classes rather than spend 24/7 in a dorm room this time.
We really arenât seeing all of that. The class of 2020 here went to college. We are at a competitive Chicago suburban high school with 650 or so grads each year. Over 90 percent go to four year colleges. S19 took a semester off (which was his soph year) and we know only a handful in his class who took a break.
Again i think we are just going to have to wait until fall and hopefully common data sets will shed some light.
You are probably right that itâs not a huge # but I think there might be an additional anomaly of double or more depositors who have pending financial aid appeals. Kids applied on 2019 numbers. Apparently some extensions too due to late financial aid packages. I have seen several references on Twitter by private and school counselors about multiple deposits.
Someone else guessed that TOs were more likely to commit if they made it into a big reach and there are just a larger number of qualified 21s to take up spots at the top schools. In the media there are kids featured who got into all of the ivys, etc. but in reality most applicants had a brutal regular round so offers may be spread out to the pool. Then some got pushed out to second tiers, etc. which made those full. That probably does explain most of of the fullness.
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All of it, honestly, was just a cherry on top of an already cruddy year to be honest. I feel for the kids who in any other year would have gotten into some of these schools who are not sitting on waitlists with conjecture swirling about of they are full, they are overenrolled, etc.
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I didnât say they didnât âgo to college,â I said the majority are doing something different than planned a year ago. By âour circleâ I am including our high school but also neighbors, friends and family all over the US/UK/Canada.
D was a TO candidate. She got into multiple reaches - Davidson, BC, Colgate would be considered low acceptance rate reaches for her. Still? She could only choose one. She ended up choosing the one that didnât take that many kids TO although we didnât know that when she chose.
I can see why some kids with scores didnât get into some schools. But kids without scores also didnât get into schools. Itâs not a matter of TO or not TO. Overenrollment a matter of (a) some top schools seemingly admitting either more kids than usual and then maybe keeping their yield about the same and (b) maybe some top schools taking fewer kids so kids denied ended up at their match schools and those match schools are overenrolled. Clearly itâs complicated and each school has its own situation right now. We are talking mostly about the tippy tops here not going to WL. A lot of those schools donât take many from WL in any year.
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Funny how the experts arenât talking or predicting any more. Either the WL action will be late and chaotic or just wonât happen. Either way, itâs not the gradual, lengthy trickle down they said would happen.
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Ok got it. Most kids here doing what they always planned. Went off to college in 2020 and are staying where they matriculated.
Looking back at 2019 and 2018 (handful of schools I perused)âŠSeems that the 2021 WL so far is similar or maybe a little higher WL activity. OF course it is nothing like last year, but that was an outlier for the obvious reasons. It will be interesting to see if it does extend longer into the summer or not.
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Your D did better than most RD I think and your list was well done. Anyway, that was just a hypothesis.
Yes, I guess as said upthread, colleges who took more may have miscalculated based on uncertainty or bad assumptions. It is complicated and an ecosystem. I hope to see reporting on it at the end since weâve been so involved. Fascinating.
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