Penn Waitlist 2022

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Pennsylvania
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@scholar999 – Exactly!!! I asked that a few posts up, and @f2000sa insisted that once they go above target, that becomes the new target for that year since they are already planning on that number. I disagree, and agree with you.

Many very selective schools (Harvard, Yale, etc.) have already pulled from their wait lists, and Penn has not. To me, that speaks volumes. The fact that there has been no movement (other than releasing a whole bunch of kids) tells me that Penn is over enrolled, and is just keeping a small extended list in case any of the 4 schools falls below target. Dean Furda said in his blog post on 5/12 that they hope to finalize the wait list by mid-June (3 weeks from now). He also said any activity will be limited in scope (while not promising that there would be any activity at all), and he urged students to make plans to enroll elsewhere. Those statements, combined with no wait list movement two weeks after the RD enrollment deadline, seems like a very gentle way to urge people to forget about Penn while keeping the list officially open in case things radically change in the next month.

@f2000sa seems to think that Penn will pull one for one off the wait list list for every kid who was a “yes” on May 1st that ends up not enrolling. We’ll see, but I would not be shocked when they release final numbers if it turns out they are over enrolled and they take no one from the wait list this year. I think the target is the target, they don’t want to be above it or below it, and they will actually be happy to have some kids drop off to go to other schools if they are above target, and those kids will not be replaced. The fact that have to accommodate 2500 if that’s what they have on 5/1 does not mean they want to accommodate that many. If they did, that would be their target!

To my understanding, the purpose of the wait list is to fill a class if their yield projections end up being too optimistic, not to replace students who drop out of an over enrolled class as long as the class remains over enrolled. Some schools (Vanderbilt comes to mind) intentionally under enroll the class through RD so they can pull kids off the wait list and artificially increase their yield by taking the remaining kids from a pool where they have indicated a strong likelihood to enroll if admitted. Traditionally, around 7% of Vandy’s class comes from the wait list. Penn, on the other hand, does not do this with its wait list. Penn increases its yield by taking a disproportionate amount of its class through binding Early Decision, and then uses its wait list for its traditional intended purpose (to fill seats left vacant by overestimating yield) rather than as a planned vehicle for accepting students into its class.

That said, there really is no reason to debate the point – we’ll see in a few weeks if anyone came off the wait list, and then we’ll see when the publish statistics where the class is compared to the target. If there is wait list movement and that school is above target, then @f2000sa is right and I am wrong. But today, my vote (based on lack of activity to date) is all 4 schools are above target and there will be no wait list movement at Penn this year.

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NJDad00. I just re-read you older post. I think you are correct. If their goal was 2450 and they have 2500, 2500 is not the new number that they would use their waitlist to maintain. So if they are indeed at 2500 and for some strange reason it drops below 2450 then and only then they will access the EWL to get back up to 2450.

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Do not confuse WL and EWL. WL is used to fill the class, and extended WL is used to fill any dropout. In the past, (for example class 2021), The yield is less, they fill the class with WL and then did the extended WL. In total, they pulled about 20 from WL for class 2021.

For class 2020, the yield is between 1 to 2 per cent higher, they increased the class size by 40. The class size dropped back for class 2021.

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“In total they pulled about 20 from WL for class of 2021” @f2000sa actually the common data set Penn released says last year 58 kids were offered admittance.

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@Bananas99 You are correct. I got that number from an article on thedp.com.

Despite the unexpected high yield for class 2020, they still took some from Waiting list.

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@f2000sa – Your point about Penn taking a few off the wait list for 2020 is well taken, but it’s only a very few kids. Two questions that you probably don’t have the answer to:

1-while the class as a whole had a higher yield, were any of the 4 schools under enrolled? If so, that would explain the limited movement off the wait list.

2- I’d bet both your number and @bananas99’s are correct for 2020. Penn probably offered admission to 58 from the wait list and enrolled 20. I’d bet that was to fill 20 spots in one or more of the 3 smaller schools while arts and sciences was over enrolled (or vice versa), thus accounting for the overall larger class size while still utilizing the wait list. The $64,000 question – was any of the wait list movement in 2016 prior to May 24th? If so, it’s not particularly relevant to this year’s wait list.

Finally, why do your think WL and EWL serve different purposes? WL is larger than the number of students offered admission. It is huge, and not necessarily reflective of Penn’s needs. It is set to give them a huge cushion, and a variety of potential needs to fill as it rounds out its class. It’s also probably to appease the egos of legacy and VIP kids by giving them an intermediate step before rejection. After a few weeks, when sees what its yield actually is, Furda whittles it down to a few hundred to actually fill gaps in the class and/or shortfalls in enrollment.

Why do you think the first list is to fill the class, and the second list is to maintain the high water mark established on 5/1 if the class is over enrolled. What is your source? I noticed above you said Penn had already made arrangements for the overflow and was therefore committed to maintaining it. Where does that come from? Why do you think Penn places overflow incoming freshman in overflow housing on 5/2, and is therefore committed to that number, as though Penn doesn’t lose students every year due to wait list movement at peer (and dare I say, above peer, institutions)??

The Penn admissions function is a very well oiled machine. If there has been no wait list movement after all this time, the odds are good there won’t be. I really don’t think there will be a one to one replacement of students lost to Harvard, Yale, MIT, etc. over the past few weeks, unless one class or another is under enrolled, or they lost a tuba player that they need for the band!! :slight_smile:

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They do put a lot (thousands per some) on WL for diplomatic purpose. At the core of the WL, they have much smaller real waiting list. If the yield is lower than expected, they will fill it from the real waiting list.

The extended Waiting list is to fill the dropouts after the class is filled. This is common practice. Many schools keep their EWL well into summer.

For class 2020, you are correct, the enrollment was not even. So Some schools drew from WL.

They did increase the class size by 40 for that class. The class size shrunk to normal the next year.

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@NJDad00 58 was the number for class of 2021 waitlist, not class of 2020. Either way, there is no way they offered 58 spots and only 20 accepted positions. Most schools look specifically to pull people off the waitlist that they are almost certain will enroll (which is why it’s important to let the school know they’re still your top choice). If you google the common data set for penn, all the numbers are there for how many people were offered a position on WL, how many took their spot, and how many were ultimately offered admission. The only data set where the “waitlist” section is not filled out by them is from 2 years ago (2020), when they had a record yield…

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@bananas99 – Thanks for turning me on to the common data set! I’d never seen it before. I note that the common data set has fields for both “admitted” and “enrolled” students for all decision categories other than wait list, but only “admitted” for the wait list. The only conclusion is that Penn is not publishing yield results for the wait list.

I agree the goal is to have 100% yield from the wait list, but that is not realistic. I have no idea what the yield was, and was only offering a suggestion as to how both 20 and 58 could have been correct numbers, but it’s as likely Penn admitted 20 students from 58 admissions as it is that they enrolled 58! Kids stay on the wait list for lots of reasons, including just wanting to see if they get in. Moreover, lots of kids who really intend to enroll if admitted change their minds when they actually get the letter, either because of FA or because they emotionally or financially invest in a school that already admitted them.

Again, while this is all interesting, the fact remains that as the days drag on with no movement, it becomes less and less likely that anyone is going to be admitted off the extended WL. Furda clearly signaled as much 2 weeks ago, while we all seem to be in denial! :slight_smile:

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For class 2020, they released the EWL on June 17.

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I called, and one of the admissions people said that the class is not full at all, things are just very slow this year. Then again, they could be playing games as many of you guys mentioned, just in case there is a radical drop.

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Do you guys know approximately how many people are on the waitlist for this year?

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@chknlover I think at least 2500-3000 they offered, probably around 1500-2000 accepted, but since then that number has cut down a lot due to this “extended waitlist.”

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I doubt too many would drop out at this point. HYPSM are not admitting from waitlists any more and ones who accepted Penn already know financial situation. I doubt more would drop out,may be two or three for not being able to arrange payments by August or realizing their rolling admission state school is a practical option after all.
By the way, how many are on their extended waitlist? 50?

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I think the EWL is about 200-500.

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@CupCakeMuffins if it was 50, man that would be nice

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@ElCapitan33 – Yeah, one of the most innovative, professional admissions offices in the country, one that sends out “Likely Letters” to get its hooks into its most attractive candidates well before Ivy Day, all of a sudden can’t get out of its own way and is willing to risk losing its most attractive wait list candidates to other schools because “things are just very slow this year”! They are definitely playing us until they are ready to officially release the list, which Furda has indicated will be in the next few weeks.

If they are going to “finalize” the list by the middle of June, and there has been no movement by the end of May, what is the most likely conclusion?

For the record, Penn is probably the least likely school among the Top 20 to actually just be “slow,” given how on top of everything they always are. If the class were “not full at all,” people would have started getting calls/e-mails on 5/2! That’s how well run its admissions office is. Penn knows full well that, while lots of very talented people would love to attend given the chance, every day that passes makes it at at least a little less likely that some people on its wait list will enroll. This is why wait list movement for all competitive schools typically begins in the beginning of May rather than the middle of July!!! Schools that have spots to fill after 5/1 don’t drag their feet; that’s not why things are slow. Things are slow because there has not yet been a need to go to the wait list, which would not be the case if the class was “not full at all.”

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I think Dean Furda’s previous post made it clear that they had a higher yield than expected and that students should move on. Yes, it’s possibly that a VERY SMALL number could hit the jackpot and be chosen if their summer melt is higher than expected, but the odds are so slim, everyone should forget about Penn and embrace the college that loves them! If a miracle happens and someone gets in, they can re-adjust and make a decision at that time.

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@NJDad00 absolutely right

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Wow!! 200-500? Why? Do they keep some courtesy cases on extended list as well?