Plan B: Skip College (New York Times)

<p>Look at this link: [The</a> Role of Community Colleges in the Education of Recent Science and Engineering Graduates](<a href=“http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf04315/]The”>http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf04315/)</p>

<p>About 2.5 million students are on average in each of the two academic years that a CC offers, while 44% of bachelor degree recipients for the year under study have attended CC in in any form or fashion. The <em>ratio</em> is 394,200/2,500,000, or ~ 16% – not 30% as someone earlier guessed.</p>

<p>These numbers completely obscure possible differences, such as which colleges the CC’s are matriculating into, the quality of degrees chosen, and grades. I find it a bit amusing that the survey includes as a CC’r students who took even ONE hour of study at the CC. Those kids are high schoolers who take an AP alternative at the CC. They do not belong in the CC group, but I bet are considerably inflating the ‘CC as a springboard to a 4 year degree and success’ storyline.</p>

<p>Anyway, I’m glad to hear that EH now understands that ‘plan’ != ‘do’; and ‘many’ is not a fraction.</p>

<p>^EricLG
I would find it very interesting to see if the data of CC students moving on to 4yr university included high school students who were dual enrolled. In our area this would increase their numbers considerably, as well as to the caliber of schools they move to.
Good Call.</p>

<p>

I’m glad to know that I had to iterate what was not needed to be iterated, so that I could boost your ego that you are in fact, yes, elite. (For the other 99.99% not including EricLG that did not feel the need to point this seemingly “duh” fact out, good job for already knowing the obvious and therefore not needing to point out the obvious! Thank you for not stating something useless!).</p>

<p>As for high schoolers who take advantage of dual enrollment, do you really think such a significant number participate in this that would really “completely obscure” results? When I was in high school, I did take a part of this, and out of our 2500 school, only 9 students participated in dual enrollment. I live in a suburb right by DC, so the amount of students taking part of dual enrollment here, I would say, should be more than most other areas (I have heard of some areas with a peculiarly large number of students taking part in it, but it is rare).</p>

<p>EDIT: Of the 9 students that participated in dual enrollment, 5 of them did not exactly voluntarily participate in it. They only participated in dual enrollment because they advanced beyond the highest level of math offered at the school (multi-variable).</p>

<p>So how much are you really willing to “bet [that dual enrollment students] are considerably inflating the ‘CC as a springboard to a 4 year degree and success’ storyline”?</p>

<p>BI,
With confidence I’ll say the answer is yes.

This was the point I was making – though perhaps not clearly.</p>

<p>EH, ‘9’ may seem like ‘few’ to you, but lets apply some fractions. Feel free to dispute some numbers I am guessing at, noted by a *:</p>

<ul>
<li>Your HS is 1250 students, but 90% of the dual-credit students are juniors or seniors *, so the fraction is much closer to 8/625, or 1.33%.

<ul>
<li>All * of these students go on to 4 year colleges.</li>
<li>* 75% of them complete a degree
---- Taken together, ~ 1% of a HS class cohort complete a degree and are incorrectly classified as a CC success story.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>

<p>Now,

  • about 60% of HS seniors matriculate into any sort of college, 40% of that group into a CC.
    16% of CC “matriculants” eventually gain a 4 year degree. 0.6<em>0.4</em>0.16 = 3.84%</p>

<p>So, 1 of every 3.84 success stories is CC spin. Now that you know the fraction, you be the judge of whether 26% incorrectly classified is a ‘lot’ or a ‘little’.</p>

<p>Just a quick correction & 2 quick questions.</p>

<p>My HS is 2500, so 1250 would be year 11+12 (of course would be less considering population decreases with increasing grade levels). So it should be 8/1250, not 8/625. You also did not account for the fact that half of these students would not have taken part in dual enrollment had they not advanced beyond the highest math offered (this point is meant to say that b/c my school is in a DC suburb, the number of students advancing beyond the highest math offered is more than would be than in other regions, and so advancing beyond the math offered by a HS is even MORE rare (5/2500 is already pretty rare) at most other places, and therefore their values for dual enrolled students would be half as much - or more specifically it would be 3-4 students, as opposed to 8-9).</p>

<p>Could you explain your process in determining ~16% of students who go to community college eventually transfer out, as I have not been completely following your posts/reading them fully.</p>

<p>Also could you explain why 60% includes students who attend community college? I find it hard to believe that only 36% of HS seniors (you did not specify graduates?) enroll into a 4-year college.</p>

<p>In which the author, who earned a PhD from the University of Chicago and a formerly occupied a cubicle, evaluates the relative utility and satisfaction–at least for himself, and ostensibly for many others–provided by his college degrees vs. his new life as a motorcycle mechanic:</p>

<p>[Amazon.com:</a> Shop Class as Soulcraft: An Inquiry Into the Value of Work (9781594202230): Matthew B. Crawford: Books](<a href=“http://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/1594202230/]Amazon.com:”>http://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/1594202230/)</p>

<p>Engineer Head,</p>

<p>If you look at table 7 on this census link, [School</a> Enrollment: October 2008 - Detailed Tables](<a href=“http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school/cps2008.html]School”>http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school/cps2008.html), 3.16 million students graduated high school in the spring or summer of 2008. Of those 41% enrolled in a 4-year college in the fall. 28% enrolled in a 2-year college. Thus the total is 69%.</p>

<p>Thanks Timmy2,
Using 28 and 41, the split is 60/40 between matriculants to 4-year and 2-year colleges.</p>

<p>addendum: a moment ago I checked my guess against the datasets for state population at [USA</a> QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau](<a href=“http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html]USA”>http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html), and 4-y college matriculation rates of HS graduates at [Data</a> Visualization at The Pew Center on the States](<a href=“http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/ttw/trends_map_data_table.aspx?trendID=21&assessmentID=94&year=2004&mode=table]Data”>http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/ttw/trends_map_data_table.aspx?trendID=21&assessmentID=94&year=2004&mode=table).</p>

<p>Assuming similar age distributions in the states, the weighted average is 46% of HS graduates enter 4-y colleges within a year of HS graduation. I have no idea which number (timmy2 or mine) is closest to correct, but between the two, a percent in the low 40s is about right.</p>

<p>I should note that I have not tried to distinguish HS seniors from HS graduates.</p>

<p>I’ll leave the math to everyone else, seems you are doing a fine job. Dual enrollment of hs students is not all that uncommon. I would offer that our hs in a large metro area, similar size (2500), has approx 12 dual enrolled students. This does not included students who take classes at cc over the summer holiday. There are schools in more rural parts of the state that offer dual enrollment because they simply cannot offer the variety of classes that many students want and are capable of in the last years at hs.</p>

<p>I won’t argue how much of a factor this is, or is not. I was just interested that these hs students, having taken classes at cc, would be considered in the total number of students that transfer on to four year universities. The hs counts their enrollment towards students moving on to four year universities, should the cc be able to count them as well?</p>

<p>I live in Albuquerque, NM. Our city school district APS [District</a> Information — Albuquerque Public Schools](<a href=“http://www.aps.edu/about-us/district-information]District”>http://www.aps.edu/about-us/district-information) enrolled 90,000 students in 2009 in pre-k - 12, which works out to be about 14,000 HS juniors and seniors. Last year 1000 students were dual-credit students, or about 7% of upper-level HS cohort.</p>

<p>No one will confuse Albuquerque with a high academic achievement district.</p>

<p>Blueiguana, I don’t think that dual enrollment students are normally included in the statistics as they generally measure graduating HS seniors or first time freshman of a particular cohort year.</p>

<p>One of the best sources for education stats is the Nat’l Center of Education Statistics which publishes data on both high school and college graduation rates and also considers factors such as race, income, first-gen, etc. They also have stats on how many college grads actually are employed in various fields using their degrees after 10 years (around 50%, if I recall correctly). I believe the DoE has reported that the overall (6-year) college graduation rate is currently under 60%…I’m sure someone can find it on this site and will correct me if I’m wrong:) Anyway, loads of data and surverys here…happy reading!</p>

<p>[Fast</a> Facts](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=51]Fast”>Fast Facts: Immediate transition to college (51))</p>

<p>Two points that I would like to add to this discussion:</p>

<p>The world is a complex place with lots of jobs that are not obvious to the outside world. Kids who “know” what they want to do at 18 and don’t leave themselves open to other things could be closing themselves off to potentially exciting careers that they would love. The only people I know if who “knew” exactly what they wanted to do at 18 are in careers it is easy to see into from the outside (for example: teachers, doctors.) Of those that I work with in my demanding, challenging but not obvious field, I can’t think of anyone who knew they wanted to do this at 18. Some of them are former wanna be teachers and doctors who found this later- and I imagine there are lots of careers like mine.</p>

<p>Also related to the complex world point is that the world needs people who are educated to deal with our complex work. Yes, not everyone is suited to college, but there is a need for people to be better educated and better informed to deal with the world the way it is.</p>

<p>And something from an article I just finished reading (Economist April 17, 2010) which makes the following point:</p>

<p>Besides the fact that some students are ill prepared for college, William Bowen (the former president of Princeton, who co-wrote a book on college completion rates) says that students are more likely to drop out if they go to a college that is not demanding enough. The Economist states that only 1/3 of Chicago local students who aspire to college enroll in ones that match their skills. One of the brightest Chicago students is quoted to say that her mother encouraged her to attend a 2 year vocational community college - not the 4 year schools she “should” have been considering.</p>

<p>I’m coming to this discussion extremely late and have only read part of these posts. As a college professor and a strong supporter of a liberal arts education, people who don’t understand the purpose and value of such a degree seem to think that colleges are vocational schools. College “broadly” educates students to be citizens of the world. It helps them to think critically, write and communicate effectively and understand other cultures, religions and regions of the world. It helps people analyze and discuss various perspectives and points of view. It hopefully results in one being able to view all sides of an issue and argument. A strong college will result in producing a well rounded individual, not simply one who can go out and qualify for a job or field that may not exist in a decade. The best and most desirable employees are students who have strong communication skills, strong analytical skills and have broad experiences. I think it’s fool hardy to suggest that college isn’t important or valuable.</p>

<p>When I learned of federal government figures on the issue while doing a related Google search </p>

<p>[Archived:</a> High School Students Using Dual Enrollment Programs to Earn College Credits, New Reports Say](<a href=“http://www2.ed.gov/news/pressreleases/2005/04/04062005a.html]Archived:”>http://www2.ed.gov/news/pressreleases/2005/04/04062005a.html) </p>

<p>I was surprised how many United States students participate in various forms of dual enrollment before leaving high school.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>When you are writing the check for someone’s college attendance, how large a total cost of attendance bill looks like excessive cost for those acknowledged benefits of a college education?</p>

<p>tokenadult, it depends on your value system. I use to be a college recruiter 30 years ago. There are all kinds of ways to get a high quality education without going broke. I think the problem is, many students don’t really know about all of the ways that one can obtain financial aid. The wealthiest colleges have the best financial aid. So, often students shy away from certain colleges because they’re intimidated by the cost. I always say to students, get accepted first and then work out the finances. I see so many people make horrendous mistakes in the colleges they choose and the bad fiscal choices they make in paying for them. An outstanding college education is the best investment a person can make. I understand that many people can’t/won’t be able to go to college but, to discourage a person because of this vocational school mentality is bad advice.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>You mention that one way to do that is to apply to (and, of course, be admitted to) a college with a hefty supply of funds for need-based financial aid. How does the supply of colleges in that category compare to the demand for admission to such colleges? </p>

<p>I’d love to hear from you (or from any onlooker) about all of the various ways to get a high quality education without going broke. I’m sure that would be practical information for many people reading this thread.</p>

<p>tokenadult - The answer is a public university. It’s not really to complicated. I got accepted to Baylor, a private school, and it had the specific degree I wanted, but when I got the FA package in I would have received the highest transfer scholarship and still need to borrow about $13,000 a year. Instead I’m going to intend TAMU at CS and I’ll borrow no more than $15,000 total.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>Please, do tell. For the average student (who receives little to no financial aid) state schools are still 50-60k minimum.</p>