Please help with chances and application strategy (ED or RD)

Chance Me / Match Me!
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Would really appreciate everyone’s thoughts on application strategy. HS Counselor believes chances at reaches are 75%+ with ED, but could be less than 25% with regular decision. Does that sound right?

Demographics

  • US citizen
  • New Jersey
  • High Performing Public High School
  • White female

Intended Major(s): Communication, Visual Studies, Media Studies

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.98
  • Weighted HS GPA 5.3
  • Class Rank: School doesn’t report rank, but 30/297
  • ACT/SAT Scores: 1570 (E: 740/M: 780)(taking again in August)

Coursework
IB Diploma, all IB Courses in 10th/11th: English (HL), Math (HL), Studio Art (HL), Physics (SL)
Senior Courses: IB Spanish 5, IB Psych, IB Environmental, 3D Modeling

Awards: High School doesn’t do awards, NHS, Honor Roll, Scholastic Art Award, Silver Key

Extracurriculars
*Varsity Tennis, Internship with Social Media start up (safe tech platform), owner of art business, church youth group, peer leader, black belt TKD, certified art activist

Essays/LORs/Other:
*Solid/Very Good

Cost Constraints / Budget
*None/Full Pay

Colleges

*Likely: Fordham, Marist, UVM
*Match: Skidmore, William & Mary, Northeastern

  • Reach: Tufts, Boston College, Middlebury, Notre Dame

Thanks so much.

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I think you have a good list although I think your counselor is overestimating the ED bump. The acceptance rate goes way up in ED but 75% is overly optimistic IMO.

Middlebury and BC have huge advantages for applying ED. If one of these schools is truly your first choice, use your ED there.

From what I understand, ED at ND and Tufts doesn’t give the same advantage.

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I’d agree and add that ND doesn’t have ED. It has restrictive early action. But, the schools are pretty different and chances of acceptance will vary depending on how much OP’s daughter can show “fit.” BC and ND will be looking for the student to discuss the Catholic values of each school and why that’s important to her (she doesn’t have to be Catholic, but has to be able to demonstrate why a Catholic university fits her needs). Essays will be a big deal there.

Midd, last I checked, doesn’t have a supplement essay requirement, so they will be evaluating fit based on the Common App essay as well as the other parts of the app. Tufts has a “why tufts” essay that will likely be important. Tufts is a national university, but has a small LAC feel to it. Midd is obviously a small LAC, so both of these schools are pretty similar to each other.

I think it would be tough for one student to be able to equally demonstrate fit at BC/ND and at Midd/Tufts, so that might be a consideration for where she applies early.

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I don’t think there’s much of a bump in the ND REA round vs RD, especially if you aren’t coming from a Catholic feeder school.

I would choose your favorite school for your ED/REA and not try to guess chances. I don’t think your chances at Tufts/Midd/BC are 75% in ED, would think BC chances are highest. I do agree that your chances in the RD round at any of those schools are much lower than ED, likely single digit chances, at least at Tufts and Midd.

How is it that you are not in the top 10% of your class with a 3.98 uw GPA? Does your school report rank? If so, that will be a bit of a disadvantage. OTOH, IB is generally an advantage.

Why aren’t you taking math and English senior year? Will you be submitting an art portfolio/supplement with your apps?

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It seems like your counselor is looking at a Scoir or Naviance scattergram, which would compare your data to that of past applicants from your school. The charts do typically highlight the 75/50/25 percent zones for your high school. Those chancing percentages there are not the same as the ED vs. RD acceptance rates for the colleges themselves.

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Ok with your categories. I’d make Skidmore likely. Good luck.

Ps. Hard to tell. Do you have 4 years science ??

This came up yesterday. Bc, for example, u want 4 years of English, math, natural science, social science, foreign language.

Not sure if IB includes but I don’t see it in what you wrote.

I assume if you lacked in any, that a school like BC would be ‘difficult.’

Good luck.

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These are good call outs. While IB is rigorous, is this course load rigorous for the OP’s high school? Seems like some core subject areas are missing, and ES only makes sense if the chem, bio and physics boxes were already checked.

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Thanks for this! Yes, 4 years of all 5 core classes. Science classes were Honors Bio, Honors Chem, IB Physics and IB Environmental Science.

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Those boxes are all checked. IB Diploma is highest rigor at my school. Could have taken AP Chem or AP bio senior year, but not pursuing science major in college.

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Thank you! Sorry, yes, taking 4 years of all 5 core subjects, math, english, science, ss, and language. School doesn’t report rank. There’s def grade inflation at HS, but another reason is that I transferred after freshman year for more challenging curriculum and art program. Freshman high school (small catholic) did not do weighted GPA. Current high school includes freshman GPA in overall WGPA calculation, even thought freshman HS used different scale. Seems unfair, but that’s the way they do it. And finally, yes, I’m submitting an art portfolio where allowed. Of my schools, only Tufts, Fordham, ND, and Skidmore allow a portfolio for “non studio art majors”

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Check on portfolio requirements for Middlebury. My D submitted a portfolio a few years ago and wasn’t applying as an art major.

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Will do. Thank you.

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Early Action rather than Early Decision is what you want to do unless you are sure that the ED school is your dream school and there’s nowhere else you’d rather go. ED is binding and you must commit to going to that school if you apply ED. EA just gives you an early answer to whether you get in or not. I would ALWAYS encourage applying EA if a school offers it. No need to drag it out to RD and many schools do fill up most of their incoming class with EA applicants.

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ED won’t really boost you from 25% to 75%, but it can turn a reach into a high match…
I think your 4 “reach” schools are very realistic and would become “high match” as early decision.

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Thank you! I guess what I’m struggling with most is whether all of my reaches will reject me in the regular round. I like all of my reaches but I think I like BC and Tufts the best. Just nervous about making the decision now.

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I have one kid at Tufts and one at BC. They are both happy where they are, but they are very different schools. Are you sure you would be happy at either? I think you would have a good shot at getting into BC if you apply ED (preferably ED 1). If you wait until RD, your chances go down a lot because at least half the slots are filled during the ED round. Tufts has just gotten really difficult to get into without a hook no matter what round you apply in - same with ND (although you are obviously very well qualified for both). Don’t know much about Middlebury, but I think your chances of getting in ED would be better than at Tufts or ND.

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Thank you. I visited both schools twice and realize that they are different (religious aspect, sports, etc), but I don’t think they are as different as, for example, BC and Vassar or BC and Wesleyan. Maybe I’m missing something bigger. I’m open -minded and slightly left leaning, but also was raised Catholic. I am friends with lots of different types of people. Are your kids very different from each other? Thanks again.

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. At many or most selective schools your chance of admissions drops sharply in RD rounds. It is very obvious by observation of unhooked students results both anecdotally and statistically. Be very careful before you decide not to play that ED card!

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Yes, definitely different. That said, I can see my daughter being happy at Tufts (although BC is probably a better fit). My son, who is more on the quirky side, would probably not be happy at BC. They both like being in Boston. Whatever you decide, I wish you luck and hope things work out how you want.

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Tufts is need aware and you are full pay. Nearly 2/3 their kids are full pay if I remember right.

If it’s a top choice I might put my bet there because to them full pay matters. Just make sure your parents know it’s a $330k commitment!! So make sure they buy In up front.

I assume you like Fordham, UVM, and Marist or they shouldn’t be on your list because one of those may be where you get into and attend. So your safety needs to be one you can like.

That said, some of those schools offer merit aid but you can’t get it if you get into Tufts ED etc so make sure your family is truly ok with ED. Not all are. In other words, if they can spend $50k, they might prefer that over $85k, etc.

But I think your plan is sound. Just don’t fall in love with any school. You are what’s important. They’d be lucky to have you. If not, then move on. So try not to fall in love. Truth is you can be happy and successful from each school on the list.

Good luck.

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